The beginning of the season is not the problem...it's the END of the season that I'm worried about. With no Parsons or Lin to create shots, Harden with have to basically do ALL the playmaking. without a true backup pg Beverley will meanwhile have to play extended minutes (40-plus per game, maybe even) and will either be injured, sick or very tired by the end of the season. This will NOT be a good playoff team. As last year...expect Harden to carry the team on his back through the regular season, and then Dwight takes over in the playoffs.
15-5 would be incredible and is doable. I see zero problems with Ariza fitting in right away. It will take some time for him to gell with the offense, but right away he'll be able to find open 3s with the double teams of Howard. And he's a veteran, its not like he'll be lost. And he's already a better defender than Parsons. I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised with Terrence Jones. McHale played his position. Not just played it, dominated it. Don't underestimate Caanan and Daniels being solid off the bench. Sure they played against DLeague talent last year, but playing 40 minutes a game against 2nd tier talent as rookies is better than 10-15 garbage minutes in the NBA IMO. Still up to Harden to take on a leadership role. Most agree he's the best 2 in the league. Now, lead. Durant backing down from team USA may turn out to be a great thing.
Range of 13 to 18 wins. 18 would require some serious breaks but is not out of the realm of possibility if the defense improves like it should and the team is on the right side of close games.
I'm still pretty flabbergasted that so many people are writing this team off for next season. I genuinely believe that the most overrated and underrated offseason moves are Parsons to Dallas and Ariza to Houston. I was pissed when we lost CP, but quickly got over it once I looked at how much better of a fit Ariza is. We should be a SOLID defensive team next year. And while Dallas will occasionally put up a ton of points, they will consistantly allow a ton of points as well. As far as the so called holes in the Rockets roster... Let's see, we lost Parsons, Asik, and Lin. As I previously said, I think Ariza is a better fit for this team going forward than Parsons would have been. CP wanted a bigger role, and that's fine. I feel like had he stayed he would have still wanted that bigger role and it could have caused some locker room friction when he didn't get that bigger role. Ariza is a better d/3 SF than CP, though he can't create and score at the same level as Parsons, that's okay because we have Harden for that. As for Asik... Everyone is acting like this is a huge loss. In theory I guess it is, but what exactly did Asik give us that is so irreplaceable? He missed half the season and didn't get enough minutes to put up the kind of numbers he is capable of anyway. We cannot replace the overall player Asik was at backup C, but certainly can replace the production we were getting from him in a limited role. Now Lin... He showed flashes of brilliance, but overall, he's just alright. I would argue that regardless of what happened this offseason we would be better off getting rid of him and giving Canaan his minutes. We should get similar production at a MUCH cheaper price. Looking at our bench... I actually think it could be better than last years, offensively at least. Shooters like TD, Canaan, and now Papi. Questions remain on D, but wouldn't be shocked if Dorsey steps in well to anchor the 2nd unit D. Having said all that, I see us having a team at least as good as last years. And like Morey said, by the end if the year should be better. Like I said in a previous post, 15-5 to start out. Will have some lows as well during the season. Should win around 55 games again this year.
These first 20 don't look too bad. But the Rockets will have 3 games with Thunder 4 with Spurs 4 with Clippers 2 with Heat 2 with Cavaliers 2 with Bulls (4 games with Pelicans 4 with Mavs 3 with Lakers) And their last 10 games of the season are: @Washington @Toronto Sacramento @Dallas @Oklahoma City @San Antonio San Antonio New Orleans @Charlotte Utah
Oct.28 @Los Angeles Lakers W Oct.29 @Utah Jazz W Nov.1 vs Boston Celtics W Nov.3 @Philadelphia 76ers W Nov.4 @Miami Heat W Nov.6 vs San Antonio Spurs W Nov.8 vs Golden State Warriors L Nov.12 @Minnesota Timberwolves W Nov. 14 vs Philadelphia 76ers W Nov.16 @Oklahoma City Thunder L Nov.17 @Memphis Grizzlies W Nov.19 vs Los Angeles Lakers W Nov.22 vs Dallas Mavericks W Nov.24 vs New York Knicks W Nov.26 vs Sacramento Kings W Nov.28 vs Los Angeles Clippers L Nov.29 @Milwaukee Bucks W Dec.3 vs Memphis Grizzlies W Dec.5 @Minnesota Timberwolves W Dec.6 vs Phoenix Suns W 17-3
0-20... Got to set the bar low for expectations. So anything better will feel amazing (14-6 is my guess..)
