That's because if you average the odds of the next 50 flips being heads (50%) with the results of the previous 50 flips (say, 35% were heads), you're always going to get closer to the statistical odds of 50%, unless the previous 50 flips matched the odds (in this case [.5+.35]/2, or .425 is closer to .500 than .350). But the odds of a single flip's result will still always be 50%. At no point will there be odds different from 50% that the next flip will turn up heads, even if the previous 10 resulted in tails. The OP said that the odds would be higher to turn up one side over the other for the next 50 flips, which is wrong. The results will likely move closer to the odds with a greater sample size, but it doesn't change the odds of the next flip.
Not exactly. If we end up getting a point guard from the Suns, the thread has value. If we don't, and nothing else happens validating what we've been told by a couple of members here, then it can be viewed as a waste of time. Personally, I think it's too early to assume that the one or two members who have put themselves out there, mainly Plowman, at this point, are completely wrong. I'm prepared to wait and see. What is currently driving me a bit crazy right now is the constant talk about injuries to the Rockets and the devolution of that awful BS into an argument about odds. One subject, in my humble opinion, is very bad luck, and the other doesn't belong in this forum. And yeah, I'm quickly losing my sense of humor here.
Hah, my bad. I reread the statement again and you're right. I thought he said that the odds of getting tails (15 in the first sample) are greater than in the first 50, which is true, but again, not what he said I apologize.
As it goes on and on, I keep clicking over thinking I might find something relevant happening. Unfortunately, I keep wasting my time.
Most of THIS we already know, but it's a change of pace. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...soes-free-agency-market-can-recover-next-year
Someone needs to compute how much space Dallas supposedly will have next offseason...Dallas was like the first potential team in the market for a PG...
But we DO know all other factors being equal that a team with prior injuries like the pellies are more likely to have injuries than a team with prior fewer injuries. That's medical. If you tear a muscle that muscle is likely to be re-aggravated in the future. Or you're more likely to hurt something else compensating for the prior injury. To say that know one knows the probability that the pellies will get hurt more is not the same thing as saying the pellies are more likely than the rockets to suffer injuries. Maybe it's 2%. Maybe it's 10%. But medically speaking, they are more likely to get hurt.
WTF is going on? I come here to get updates and there are about 20 pages of back and forth about which team is more likely to face / avoid injury or something along those lines... Why not just create a separate thread to discuss that instead of de-valuing this thread. This is BULL CRAP!!!
That what this thread has become...a page that allows people to post random offseason BS....any real breaking news now would actually be posted by JR, Clutch or a Mod...
What the hell do they even have to offer? Ledo, Makel and future late 1st? Our package is 10 times better.
Just to review, Morey is after a 3rd all-star caliber player at the 1, 3 or 4. Here's who could be available over the next year: Point Guards Rondo (UFA) Dragic (UFA) Bledsoe (RFA) Rubio (RFA) Small Forward Kawhi Leonard (RFA) Power Forwards LMA (UFA) Faried (RFA) Millsap (UFA) If they aren't included above, they either aren't available or aren't an "all-star caliber" player. The point guards are all reasonable options. Kawhi isn't going anywhere. The Spurs will give him a max extention soon. LMA already said he's coming back to Portland, though his mind could certainly change if Portland crashes and burns. Faried isn't a good fit for this team. Not a shooter at all. I feel like if we wanted Millsap that bad, we could have had him by now. So here's your list: Dragic Bledsoe Rubio Rondo LMA I would not be surprised if Morey's plan was to go all out for Rondo or Dragic between now and the 1st game. Why? Because both expire next summer, and could be flipped to Portland for LMA if they tank. If not, then you just resign them next summer. As others have pointed out, Morey has always had a swinging door at PG. For some reason, my gut tells me that he thinks more of Sergio Llull than we do.
Rubio is no where close to All-Star caliber. And Portland wouldn't trade LMA for a PG when they have Lillard.
Rubio would be a TERRIBLE fit on this team...can't shoot to save his life/turnovers galore/defense is non-existent expect for when he jumps passing lanes from time to time. I don't see why CFans is so enamored by him...he's the anti-3/D player
YOU would be TERRIBLE fit on this team. Rubio is a plus defender. YOU are the one who is non-existent because YOU don't even EXIST.
