BSPN forecasts the Rockets to finish 8th in the West

I think the Rockets should finish with the 4th-7th seed. It all depends on how healthy Harden and Howard stay throughout the regular season. If Harden misses any significant time it could mean trouble.

 

57 win season. 3rd seed in the West.

38 tough games against: Heat, Spurs, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Mavs, Knicks, Clippers, Suns, Blazers

44 games against lesser opponents.

Win 60% of the tough games, 80% of the games against lesser opponents...57 wins, 3rd seed.

1 Thunder
2 Spurs
3 Rockets
4 Clippers
5 Portland
6 Suns
7 Warriors
8 Grizzlies

 

Yeah, this is pretty much where I have them - somewhere in the 6-8 seed range. I'd actually add the Mavs into that group as well as I see those four teams battling for seeds 5-8. I just don't see the Mavs winning 50 games this season without drinking vast amounts of the blue koolaid Cuban is serving up here.

 

The Mavs are the single most overrated team I've ever seen!

The added a decent (but aging) center, a solid SF, two PGs that shouldn't start on a playoff team, and a handful of bench players.

They lost a terrific 3pt shooting PG, the only guy that played defense- marion, and they're best bench guy in carter.

This team improved on paper, but it's such a marginal amount that it might not even show in the win column. Also, worst defensive roster in the league probably.

 

Wrong

 

yeah wrong you got to name richard jefferson!

 

it's a measuring stick, just like every other rankings, like college football. Basically the media think we didn't improve our team from last year and we wont be better than last year's record based on all the players we lost. Sure most of them are "role" players, but they were part of our rotation and our depth suffer big time. And there's no argument ariza is a slight downgrade from parsons.

 

The argument would be the part of basketball which Parsons has sucked at for the past two years.

 

It's not a bad list considering 4 through 8 are separated by 2 games and I think it will be that close.

 

The rockets will be better than 8th, I am saying it right now.

 

Lol excuse me!?

Mind telling me where I'm wrong... I stated facts, not opinions.

Ass!

 

Let's look at what really happened in the west this offseason:

1) Spurs - Added no one. Lost no one.
2) OKC - Added a role player (Morrow). Lost a role player (Sefelosha)
3) Clippers - Lost no one. Added a role player (Hawes).
4) Houston - Lost role players (Parsons and Asik). Added a role player (Ariza)
5) Portland - Lost no one. Added a role player (Blake)
6) GSW - Lost no one. Added a role player (Livingston)
7) Memphis - Lost a role player (Miller). Added a role player (Carter)
8) Mavs - Lost role players (Carter and Marion). Added role players (Parsons and Chandler)

Literally nothing of significance has happened in the western conference, and ESPN thinks we've dropped 4 spots?

If, and I do mean IF the rockets get Dragic, then that will be BY FAR the most significant move in the western conference this offseason and should catapult us ahead of the Clippers into the top 3. Otherwise nothing has changed.

 

Memphis with a Healthy Gasol for a whole season can be a top 3 team so that could push some people down.

People outside looking in at the Rockets see a bench that is largely unproven and it waits to be seen if Ariza keeps up his production.

They had Houston as a 4 seed last year so i doubt personal bias was put into to this, but they are preseason rankings for a reason.

 

Just to make this point more clear, lets look at what happened in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons:

2012-2013 Regular Season Standings
1) OKC
2) San Antonio
3) Denver
4) Clippers
5) Memphis
6) Golden State
7) Lakers
8) Houston

So what happened after the 2012-2013 season?

1) OKC and Spurs remained the top teams in the west
2) Denver suffered significant injuries to their best players, which bumped them out of the playoffs, and moved the Clippers up ONE slot.
3) Memphis lost Marc Gasol for a good portion of the season, which moved them down 2 slots
4) Golden State stayed exactly where they were.....6th seed
5) Lakers lost Dwight in FA and Kobe to injury
6) Houston added Dwight and moved up to the #4 slot
7) Portland finally had a healthy season, and moved up to the #5 slot.
8) Dallas added Ellis and Calderon. Moved from #10 to #8.

2013-2014 Regular Season Standings
1) Spurs
2) OKC
3) Clippers
4) Houston
5) Portland
6) Golden State
7) Memphis
8) Dallas

So what can we conclude from this?

First, ROLE PLAYERS DO NOT MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. Teams add average players and lose average players. It nets to zero.

Second, injuries to significant players, perhaps more than anything else, have the biggest impact on a team's performance.

Last, only the addition of star players can vault a team up more than a couple of spots. Houston and Porland were the only teams that added stars during the year (Houston through free agency and Portland through the growth of Lillard), and they were the teams that jumped the most in the standings.

 

Cool - let them rank us last and make us work for it.

 

I think Jeremy Lin feels disrepected

 

Homerism is strong with this one...

 

I'm surprised that after 15 pages, no one had any stats to back up their opinions/predictions.

By using xRAPM, I'd crunched numbers into my predictions.

Difference between:
Parsons and Ariza: -1.4 wins
Lin and Canaan: -4.2 wins

Total difference: -5.6 wins or right around 48-49 win season. This is not by adding Asik's impact.

Note: All calculations were adjusted for Pace, minutes play based on 82 games, and age influence (projected improvement based on age). The disparity between Lin and Canaan? Canaan was just awful last year. Even after adjusting for his age influence of +1.4, his xRAPM is expected to be -1.51 from last season of -2.91.

The biggest reasons for Blazers improvement were Robin Lopez and their bench depth, which actually allowed LMA and Lillard to have more rest.

Aldridge played 5 less games and almost 200 minutes less.
Lillard also played 230 less minutes last season than his ROY season.

The result? They won 21 more games by adding key players. If you remove the games they tanked toward the end of previous season, it's still a significant amount of games due to role players.

 

It's your opinion..... and it's wrong.

 

The moves they made that I listed are facts... That's what they gained and what they lost.

Please explain to me how those departures/acquisitions make them a ******g 5 seed!?

Let's try to have an actual basketball conversation. Not just one word BS that doesn't even back up your argument.