You expect people to buy something that makes so much sense? C'mon, now. Tell us instead how Omer's scouting report is greater than his contributions last year, how Linsanity accelerates faster than anyone else, and how Parsons kool-aid is the best in town (or state, now, i guess).
Nice post. I remember during the first few months of last season McHale was complaining that the team was having problems throwing lob passes to Howard ect. The familiarity between Harden and Howard at the start of the upcoming season is being discounted big time. And defensively this team should be very good.
I think there are a few unique circumstances that contribute to our overvaluing of Lin, Parsons, and Asik: Lin - Linsanity and the growth he showed while he was here. Many seem to have forgotten that he was displaced by Beverley in the starting lineup, and it wasn't entirely because of "fit". Parsons - "Homegrown". We all witnessed how his offense progressed. Unfortunately, we seem to forget that he was a good (but not great) offensive player, and was regressing on defense. Asik - The majority of what Asik gave us was lost when Howard signed. He wasn't the same after that. Everyone keeps thinking about 2012-2013 Asik......that's not who was playing for us last year. Also, he was a complete zero on offense.....couldn't even trust the guy to dunk the ball. All of these guys were and are good, but not so good that they can't be replaced. Just pure guesses on my part, but I think Canaan, Dorsey, and DMo all take steps forward this year and become significant role players. Assuming no trades, don't be surprised if this lineup is performing better than last year's version: Beverley / Canaan Harden / Daniels Ariza TJones / DMo Howard / Dorsey
And is Dragic likely to opt out in a year? Da_spark, that example i gave was just to give an idea of the value they should get for Dragic. Literally speaking though, with Phoenix's roster I'd want 2 bigs instead of another short guard. So, I'd go with Jones + NO pick and trade Johnson for a young big, or have the other team do it. However, since we're talking about Phoenix specifically, even with Bledsoe and Thomas they may want to take on the hometown guy, Johnson. I bet he's very popular and loved by many, so it may be a good environment for him.
Here: What you said here was Davis and Gordon have more injury history than Dwight and Harden so the odds favor the Rockets not suffering an injury. You haven't accounted for their ages, minutes played, style of play, schedule. Just past injury history. We're not talking about somebody being injury prone. "Injury prone" is a term that applies to the player history. We're talking about a team's future injuries. Yes, there are a whole HOST of things that go into whether or not somebody is injury prone. But there are also a whole host of things that would go into a predictive model on the odds of a TEAM suffering a major injury. Some of those factors (but probably not all) would be: 1. Past injury history 2. Age of players 3. Number of minutes/seasons players have already played in their careers. 4. Body-type of players 5. Style of play of the team 6. Team schedule (number of back to backs and 3 in 4 days and 4 in 5 days games) 7. How many minutes the players are likely to average per game in the upcoming season. Any argument by anyone that one team is more or less injury prone than another team without having a predictive model with past evidence and good logic is ridiculous. That is why I say you cannot determine whether one team is going to be more susceptible to future major injury than another team. After all, Anthony Davis is 21 years old and has played a total of 4,204 minutes. Dwight is 28 and has already played 30,192 minutes and Harden is 24 and has already played 13,428 mostly hard, hard minutes. And Harden plays a much more physically stressful game than Davis does. Dwight has played over 7 times the amount of minutes Davis has and Harden has played over 3 times the amount of minutes Davis has. Now....there's you a factor in favor of the Pelicans not having a major injury. How does it stack against past major injury history for the players in the overall determination on whether a team is more or less likely to have a major injury than another team???? That's anybody's guess at this point. Without any empirical evidence to the contrary, you have to take the odds of future major injuries to all teams as EVEN. You can't arbitrarily favor one team over the other in that area simply because you know the past injury history of the players. Because there is not predictive model in public existence to determine those odds. So..it's best to leave out that factor in predicting possible playoff teams for next season. In other words, you gotta weight it the same for all the teams without any evidence to the contrary.
What if it's Rubio? I'd want Dragic, Rondo, and Bledsoe. I'm not sure about Rubio, but maybe his game really complements Harden's in the backcourt. :/
He hinted it may be the others...i think he's saying it's likely Dragic, assuming the Bledsoe negotiations don't take an unexpected turn.
said no insurance company ever Of course we're working in probabilities here, and there's a chance not a single player on a given team suffers an injury, but while injury prone is thrown around a little too liberally, there are certain injuries that certainly are, and the pelicans have a couple players in that boat.
Sure. And there is a couple players in the boat of high usage high minutes on our side. We don't know how to weight those things at this time. It's impossible to say one team is more susceptible to a major injury in the upcoming season because there is no proven predictability model.
Serious question: Do y'all think getting a high caliber PG puts us back in place for a del playoff run? In what ways does this make us better or at least as competitive as last year. What does it do for our bench?
We need more really good basketball players. So yeah it does, as long as that high caliber PG is a good fit.
I completely agree that if we can get high caliber players than go for it. But it still doesn't do much for our bench. I guess just having Beverly come off the bench is enough to make it look good
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=9182144&postcount=6603 "Bledsoe IS NOT signing the QO and PHX is going to do one of two things...Pony up more money to keep him (and send Dragic over) or S&T EB to us." http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=9179215&postcount=23 "99%(and only because most folks don't trust absolutes) likely, you are inserting one of....... Dragic Bledsoe Rondo Rubio into that last spot. THEN, let's calculate...eh?" http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=9181311&postcount=6519 "#BGRR8@PG"
Anderson - we know 100% he's going to be a shadow of himself, tried to hold off on surgery, didn't work out (it's like aging 10-15 years overnight) Gordon - 3rd? 4th? separate knee injury The rest are probably the same boat as other people, they just got unlucky (and Davis i can never tell if they're just making **** up to rest him). There's not really much correlation between wear injuries and minutes on a per game basis (long term sure), fatigue can be an issue but it's also the easiest managed from a team research point of view.
Let's say we get trade Dragic into our TPE and send out Canaan and Jones and our 2017 1st round draft pick. Here's a few questions. 1) Does Dragic start or come off the bench mid way 1st quarter? Our Ginobli if you like... Isn't Beverley the perfect fit next to Harden? Don't you want Beverley on the opposing starting PG? Why would you bring Beverley off the bench if he isn't the play maker you want when Harden sits? 2) After the trade, where do you rank the Rockets in the Western Conference? Top 3? Top 4? 3) Since we lost Jones, do we try and get Illyasova with our expiring contracts? Gee+Covington+Hopson+something of value? Projected lineup based on comments above: Beverley/Dragic/Smith Harden/Daniels/Johnson Ariza/Papanikolou Illyasova/D-Mo/Adrien Howard/Dorsey/Capela
