What's draft strategy - year 2 of my 3 qb theory

Ok, back to the subject at hand.....

I'm in a 10-team keeper league, where I'm trying to devise a good strategy. For background sake in our league wherever you drafted your player the previous season, that round pick is sacrificed. (ie, I drafted McCoy in the 1st round last season, decided to keep him, so I essentially don't have a 1st round pick this season).

Anyway, the problem is, my 1st pick won't be until the 4th pick of the 2nd round, player values being somewhat diluted, and with McCoy already in tow, I'm leaning towards this being the year where I finally draft best player available REGARDLESS of position. For years I've done RB-RB, then an assortment of strategies after that. I've always had good teams, but with this being the first time year of a keeper draft, I'm kind of weary of my "tried and true" drafting method.

Anyone care to elaborate on their experience with BPA drafting???

 

What type of league are you in... Standard scoring or PPR...?

Just the same if I'm able to land a RB like Shady or Charles in the 1st _ I'm not worried about my 2nd running back until the 4th or 5th round.

 

Standard scoring, all TD's count for 6, no PPR

 

Yea I would definitely target a receiver... And I heard today the league is going to crack down on DB's putting their hands on receivers after 5 yards (something like that) this season so receivers may start putting up even bigger #'s. Too much running back by committee going on to invest two early picks on RB's when they're are only a few workhorse RB's that can be counted on week in and week out.

 

After seeing "what" mentioning "VBD", I did some research and I'm EXTREMELY intrigued by it. I think I'm going to try it out this season. The site I used for reference: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm

Its an old site, but the concept remains the same...seemed very intriguing to me

 

That's a very interesting read... But a simple way less scientific formula is just understanding that pre-season rankings never look like the end of the season rankings and it's always late round picked RB's that pop into the top 10-15 by the end of the year so there's a good chance that if you draft a RB in the 2nd round he'll be passed up by RB's drafted in later rounds.

Having Shady is like having a RB and a half. So depending on how your league drafts _ you have an opportunity to land you a sure fire top 10 WR in the 2nd round that you can start every week with no concerns. I promise you'll sleep good on Saturday nights with no worries...lol..

 

Yeah I sure hope so. But I think putting in the research and sticking to the VBD will help me after the 2nd round when I tend to start straying from my board, and drafting guys like Sam Montgomery....lol

 

I believe the key to winning fantasy football is simply finding useful players throughout the draft and utilizing them properly based on matchups, upside, and expected value increase.

I've never been a believer in RB-RB and the main reason is more often than not a 4th round RB will perform as well as a 2nd round RB. In this day and age RB-RB is only a consideration if you draft toward the end of the draft and in that position you will probably be able to snag one of the top non RBs who will carry you at that position.

WR is definitely the new RB, and even WRs on the same team can both be legit WR1 options (Marshall, Jeffrey). I would easily take Dez Bryant over Marshawn Lynch, AJ Green over Zac Stacy, etc. At that point you are taking a legit WR1 over an RB2 who could turn out to be a total ****bag.

 

Just incase anyone has any interest in this, I just compiled my own VBD list, and I'm about to do a mock draft and see what kind of results I get. Will post the results when done....(whether good or bad....lol)

 

I need to desperately tweak my list, I ended up with Aaron Rodgers as my QB (1st pick) with my RB's as Steven Ridley, Fred Jackson, and Andre Brown. I had the 8th pick in a 10-team league. But I did end up with very good WR's.

For those interested, here's the full list (I stopped drafting after "the list" had me take Romo...lol):

Spoiler

**- Represent your picks

Round: 1
(1) Team Man - LeSean McCoy RB
(2) Team Lank - Jamaal Charles RB
(3) Team Jacobs - Adrian Peterson RB
(4) Team Moore - Matt Forte RB
(5) Team - Marshawn Lynch RB
(6) Team LeBard - Eddie Lacy RB
(7) Team 7 - Peyton Manning QB
** (8) Team 8 - Aaron Rodgers QB
(9) Team Jolivette - Calvin Johnson WR
(10) Team Agee - Jimmy Graham TE

Round: 2
(11) Team Agee - DeMarco Murray RB
(12) Team Jolivette - Doug Martin RB
** (13) Team 8 - Demaryius Thomas WR
(14) Team 7 - A.J. Green WR
(15) Team LeBard - Dez Bryant WR
(16) Team - Arian Foster RB
(17) Team Moore - Brandon Marshall WR
(18) Team Jacobs - Drew Brees QB
(19) Team Lank - Zac Stacy RB
(20) Team Man - Le'Veon Bell RB

Round: 3
(21) Team Man - Antonio Brown WR
(22) Team Lank - Julio Jones WR
(23) Team Jacobs - Jordy Nelson WR
(24) Team Moore - Montee Ball RB
(25) Team - Alfred Morris RB
(26) Team LeBard - Giovani Bernard RB
(27) Team 7 - Reggie Bush RB
** (28) Team 8 - Alshon Jeffery WR
(29) Team Jolivette - Julius Thomas TE
(30) Team Agee - Ben Tate RB

Round: 4
(31) Team Agee - Vincent Jackson WR
(32) Team Jolivette - Randall Cobb WR
** (33) Team 8 - Andre Johnson WR
(34) Team 7 - Frank Gore RB
(35) Team LeBard - Keenan Allen WR
(36) Team - Larry Fitzgerald WR
(37) Team Moore - Pierre Garcon WR
(38) Team Jacobs - Rashad Jennings RB
(39) Team Lank - Rob Gronkowski TE
(40) Team Man - Ryan Mathews RB

Round: 5
(41) Team Man - DeSean Jackson WR
(42) Team Lank - Matthew Stafford QB
(43) Team Jacobs - T.Y. Hilton WR
(44) Team Moore - Toby Gerhart RB
(45) Team - Cam Newton QB
(46) Team LeBard - Roddy White WR
(47) Team 7 - Vernon Davis TE
** (48) Team 8 - Victor Cruz WR
(49) Team Jolivette - C.J. Spiller RB
(50) Team Agee - Robert Griffin III QB

Round: 6
(51) Team Agee - Wes Welker WR
(52) Team Jolivette - Andre Ellington RB
** (53) Team 8 - Andrew Luck QB
(54) Team 7 - Seahawks D/ST D/ST
(55) Team LeBard - Trent Richardson RB
(56) Team - Jason Witten TE
(57) Team Moore - Michael Floyd WR
(58) Team Jacobs - Torrey Smith WR
(59) Team Lank - Percy Harvin WR
(60) Team Man - Nick Foles QB

Round: 7
(61) Team Man - Michael Crabtree WR
(62) Team Lank - Chris Johnson RB
(63) Team Jacobs - Joique Bell RB
(64) Team Moore - Bishop Sankey RB
(65) Team - Reggie Wayne WR
(66) Team LeBard - Julian Edelman WR
(67) Team 7 - Matt Prater K
** (68) Team 8 - Stevan Ridley RB
(69) Team Jolivette - Colin Kaepernick QB
(70) Team Agee - Ray Rice RB

Round: 8
(71) Team Agee - Knowshon Moreno RB
(72) Team Jolivette - Steven Jackson RB
** (73) Team 8 - Cordarrelle Patterson WR
(74) Team 7 - Eric Decker WR
(75) Team LeBard - Shane Vereen RB
(76) Team - Jeremy Maclin WR
(77) Team Moore - Kendall Wright WR
(78) Team Jacobs - Marques Colston WR
(79) Team Lank - Sammy Watkins WR
(80) Team Man - Emmanuel Sanders WR

Round: 9
(81) Team Man - Pierre Thomas RB
(82) Team Lank - Mike Wallace WR
(83) Team Jacobs - Anquan Boldin WR
(84) Team Moore - Darren Sproles RB
(85) Team - Cecil Shorts WR
(86) Team LeBard - Golden Tate WR
(87) Team 7 - Danny Woodhead RB
** (88) Team 8 - Jordan Cameron TE
(89) Team Jolivette - Terrance Williams WR
(90) Team Agee - Riley Cooper WR

Round: 10
(91) Team Agee - Panthers D/ST D/ST
(92) Team Jolivette - Maurice Jones-Drew RB
** (93) Team 8 - Fred Jackson RB
(94) Team 7 - Russell Wilson QB
(95) Team LeBard - Matt Ryan QB
(96) Team - Greg Jennings WR
(97) Team Moore - Tom Brady QB
(98) Team Jacobs - Greg Olsen TE
(99) Team Lank - Chris Ivory RB
(100) Team Man - DeAndre Hopkins WR

Round: 11
(101) Team Man - DeAngelo Williams RB
(102) Team Lank - David Wilson RB
(103) Team Jacobs - Hakeem Nicks WR
(104) Team Moore - Cardinals D/ST D/ST
(105) Team - Bernard Pierce RB
(106) Team LeBard - Dennis Pitta TE
(107) Team 7 - Dwayne Bowe WR
** (108) Team 8 - Tony Romo QB
(109) Team Jolivette - Danny Amendola WR
(110) Team Agee - Darren McFadden RB

Round: 12
(111) Team Agee - Steve Smith WR
(112) Team Jolivette - Khiry Robinson RB
** (113) Team 8 - Tre Mason RB
(114) Team 7 - Shonn Greene RB
(115) Team LeBard - Lamar Miller RB
(116) Team - Mark Ingram RB
(117) Team Moore - Terrance West RB
(118) Team Jacobs - Christine Michael RB
(119) Team Lank - Donald Brown RB
(120) Team Man - Jeremy Hill RB

Round: 13
(121) Team Man - Justin Hunter WR
(122) Team Lank - Philip Rivers QB
(123) Team Jacobs - Jay Cutler QB
(124) Team Moore - Brandin Cooks WR
(125) Team - James Jones WR
(126) Team LeBard - LeGarrette Blount RB
(127) Team 7 - Mike Evans WR
** (128) Team 8 - Andre Brown RB
(129) Team Jolivette - Ben Roethlisberger QB
(130) Team Agee - Josh McCown QB

Round: 14
(131) Team Agee - Knile Davis RB
(132) Team Jolivette - 49ers D/ST D/ST
** (133) Team 8 - James Starks RB
(134) Team 7 - Stephen Gostkowski K
(135) Team LeBard - Broncos D/ST D/ST
(136) Team - Latavius Murray RB
(137) Team Moore - Kyle Rudolph TE
(138) Team Jacobs - Bengals D/ST D/ST
(139) Team Lank - Rams D/ST D/ST
(140) Team Man - Chiefs D/ST D/ST

Round: 15
(141) Team Man - Jordan Reed TE
(142) Team Lank - C.J. Anderson RB
(143) Team Jacobs - Roy Helu RB
(144) Team Moore - Rueben Randle WR
(145) Team - Patriots D/ST D/ST
(146) Team LeBard - Andy Dalton QB
(147) Team 7 - Martellus Bennett TE
** (148) Team 8 - Bills D/ST D/ST
(149) Team Jolivette - Tavon Austin WR
(150) Team Agee - Justin Tucker K

Round: 16
(151) Team Agee - Johnny Manziel QB
(152) Team Jolivette - Mason Crosby K
** (153) Team 8 - Steven Hauschka K
(154) Team 7 - Jarrett Boykin WR
(155) Team LeBard - Phil Dawson K
(156) Team - Nick Novak K
(157) Team Moore - Adam Vinatieri K
(158) Team Jacobs - Blair Walsh K
(159) Team Lank - Dan Bailey K
(160) Team Man - Nick Folk K

 

Lol. I use to lose my mind at our draft parties... Drafting and drinking is dangerous. But now I just trust my research and stick to my board, and not worry about how other people draft. I've always came out better when I've done that.

Exactly... I drafted Demaryius Thomas in the 1st round (back half of the draft) and Jimmy in the 2nd round last year.*Didn't take my 1st RB until the 4th round _ Lacy... And my main RB's ended up being Lacy and L. Bell. It's easier to identify RB's that will produce in the later rounds than other positions IMO.

 

Cam lost all of his receivers during the off-season and Indy is trying to become a power run team and limit Luck's passing attempts so he won't take a beating behind that offensive line, and both Cam and Luck put up a bunch of games with around 20 points are under last season. It's the few big games they had that skew their #'s. You have to look at how a player scores in each individual game instead of just looking at the total number of points for the season because that can fool you.

Tom Brady should have a healthy Gronk and Danny going into the season and his rookie receivers are no longer rookies... Josh McCown has some good receiving weapons, a running game, and a very good offensive line... Stafford, Ryan, Cutler, Foles, RG3, Russell, Romo, etc all can be had in later rounds. Getting two of those guys and playing the matchup game would probably pay better dividends than drafting a quarterback early.

 

Excuse me... I meant 20 points and under. Both had a lot of games in the teens last season. Too many...

 

I have a PFF gold subscription and this is how they rank the QBs this year
<ol><li>Manning</li>
<li>Brees</li>
<li>Rodgers</li>
<li>Stafford</li>
<li>Ryan</li>
<li>Brady</li>
<li>Foles</li>
<li>RG3</li>
<li>Romo</li>
<li>Luck</li>
<li>Cam</li></ol>

 

One of my leagues is a 16 owner league ($150 buy-in) but we divide it into two 8 owner conferences with 4 total divisions and each conference has a separate draft of 15 rounds. Win your division and you get a bye week in the playoffs and the bottom two teams in the conference don't make the playoffs and the two conference champions meet up for the super bowl.

With only 15 rounds and 8 owners in a conference that means everyone is capable of having a loaded team which makes it more difficult in my opinion. And the free agent pool is deep and we do blind no limit bids on free agents and that money can total anywhere from $1000-$2000 or more by the end of the year. We use that money for the weekly high point winners. One year I got kicked out the playoffs in the 1st round but I scored the most points in my league (of all 16 teams) 5 times and the pay out was $150 a pop.

But I don't think it's fair to say one league is harder than the other. It's all about preference.

 

Last year I was in a 6 team friends and family league just for fun. I drafted CJ Spiller and Doug Martin and even though I had 6 great receivers I still finished last. The guy who had the first overall pick took Jimmy Graham first and was ridiculed and he still finished higher than me.

In another league at work for money I took Brees and Megatron with my bookend picks and got all the way to the title game where I lost to a team that autodrafted Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch and never set a lineup all year.

 

That's kind of about what I was thinking, but every "major site" (ie, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo), has Matt Ryan and Tom Brady ranked extremely low. I bet their rankings are alot more "accurate" than the big guns.

 

The big sites are composite rankings of their so-called "experts" which are usually no more experts than you or I.

PFF actually hires qualified fantasy minds, not talking heads who know how to market themselves.