The possibility that NOP could make the playoffs is why Morey puts the low end protection on the pick. If NOP makes the playoffs, the pick will likely be in the 20s due to the disparity between the conferences. In this case, NOP keeps the pick and the Rockets or whoever owns the pick gets another shot at a lotto pick next season in case something goes wrong for NOP-- and it doesn't take much to fall out of the playoffs in the West nowadays. Also, NOP might get healthier and improve a great deal and still misses the playoffs given the competition in the West.
NOP has talent but I am skeptical about it meshing together. Gordon is a GIANT health liability as well.
Well name your 8 playoff teams in the west: 1) spurs 2) clippers 3) okc 4) rockets 5) Memphis 6) mavericks 7) blazers 8) warriors 9) pelicans 10) suns And then in the east, there may be a max of 9 teams with a better record then the pelicans IMO. So the further away from the draft, the more value the pick will have I think due to the unknown. But as you get closer to the draft, the more this pick will look like it is in the 12-16 range. Gordon, Davis, holiday, and Anderson have missed significant time in the last 2 seasons so it could have major value also.
I think we need to flip the pick ASAP. I really think NO is going to be the surprise team next year and they will be in the playoffs. They have the best defensive frontline in the league by far. Davis and Asik are going to be an absolute nightmare. They have a nice back court/wing players that can create and score on their own. And they have excellent 3 pt shooters. Davis was great last year but I think this year he's really going to show that he's the best PF in the game. Better than Love, Griffin, LMA etc.
The way I see it the Spurs, Clips, and OKC are the only locks. Everyone else is going to be beating each other up for spots and positioning. From a pure talent stand point there isn't much difference between teams 4-10. And there's no way in hell we're finishing 4th in the west. Not with this current roster.
This. The pick is technically protected so it's guaranteed to be between 4-19 but in reality it's basically going to be 4-14 since 14-19 will fall to the Eastern conference teams that make the playoffs. So it's a lottery guaranteed, top 3 protected pick.
We may not finish 4th but we will get in. And the pels likely won't. If the pels don't make it, the pick can be no worse than 14th. 12-16 seems like the likely range judging from today.
We should not cherish it at all; we should unload it before the season starts. Its value will drop as the season progresses and people see where it actually lies instead of fantasizing where it could lie. It's a pick to tantalize GMs who want to gamble... the less gambling, the less value.
No, I think it's overrated. 1. Pelicans are a bubble playoff team. It'll be tough for them to get into the playoffs because the West is so stacked, but they've upgraded this offseason and Davis is going to be improving by leaps and bounds. Even if they don't make the playoffs, I can easily see them being the best team not to make it. 2. If they miss the playoffs, they'll be in the tail-end of the lottery range, 11-14. If they make the playoffs, they'll be 20+ and the pick will be deferred, but I don't see that as a good thing. Just like a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow, a pick is worth more now than deferred. Besides which, short of some calamity, they'll continue to improve from here, meaning the pick will trigger because of something extrinsic, like the improvement of EC teams that will bias toward a late pick. 3. Still, they likely miss the playoffs this year despite being better than half the EC, so they'll be a late-lotto draft pick. It's top-3 protected so no chance to move up, but a small chance it moves back from its likely slot. And this coming draft isn't reputed to be anything special like the 2014 draft. I've heard it described as top-heavy, meaning you won't be likely to find compelling prospects at the end of the lottery range. So, just because it's a 'likely lottery pick' doesn't mean it'll be all that great. It's probably early-to-mid-teens, with a role player in its future. Worth having, but no silver bullet. It won't be changing our team's prospects.
OP is right. The only single picks that are more valuable than this top 3 protected pick are unprotected picks still owned by their own team. And those picks are unlikely to be traded except with top 3 protection at least. So in terms of pick value as a trade-able asset there is no pick more valuable than this Pelies pick right now. It is the single most valuable pick available on the trade market.
I don't remember why he missed games his first year, but last year he had a broken finger. That's just a freak injury. It's not like he's injury-prone in the sense that he has bad ankles or knees or his body breaks down throughout a long season.
Ummm... see post #6 in this thread. Phoenix has the Lakers pick next year, only protected 1-5. That's a better pick.
I replied to you in the Feedback section, but I'll post this here as well. This is probably the best source for draft pick info: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed If you scroll down to "Houston" you'll see our NOP pick details:
A closer look shows that some of the picks available are fools gold, although I agree that there is "more out there" than when Houston got Harden. That Minnesota pick is almost guaranteed to turn into 2 second rounders years from now. That Lakers pick is a nice asset and will most likely fall in the lottery slightly below the Pelicans pick. The Clippers, Cavs and Nets picks are not lottery picks. It is also very unlikely that the Sixers pick is anything other than two second rounders. [/QUOTE] Those are two mediocre late first rounders. I agree with you that the market to get a third star will be harder than previous seasons. At some point Boston and the Sixers are going to make a stand and add a star via trade. Still, many of the "assets" accumulated by teams like Boston are not quite panning out as valuable as I am sure they hoped. Phoenix does have themselves well positioned though. That Lakers pick is valuable and they have some cap space BUT that space is going to dry up very quickly with Bledsoe, Dragic and others. The hard part is coming up for them... they really need 2 stars.
This... Let's not jinx with unrealistic high hoes and be pleasantly surprised with an injury plagued NOP season
