Seeing a lot of people on twitter point out that Luhnow has pretty much f'd any chance at Aiken having college eligibility by stating that Close was who they were negotiating with.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Jeff Luhnow: "The players union has been pretty harsh on us claiming that we didn't do things correctly or ethically & quite frankly(more)</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/statuses/490257307616301056">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>More Jeff Luhnow: "...that's just flat out wrong. We've done everything exactly the way we should be doing everything."</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/statuses/490257364465905664">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
[rQUOTEr]Astros GM Jeff Luhnow addressed the issues surrounding top draft pick Brady Aiken and the team’s failed effort to sign him before today’s deadline: “Basically, we tried to engage the other side, Casey Close three times today. Made three increasing offers and never received a counter, really they just never engaged, for whatever reason there was no interest. There just didn’t appear interest to sign on their side. “Very disappointed. I think this is a player we wanted obviously we took him 1-1. You know we would have liked to have signed him and (Jacob) Nix and (Mac) Marshall, all three of ‘em. But you can’t do that without the other side wanting to be a part of it, so we move on. “We made that offer a while back, the 40 percent offer. But we came up from that three times without ever receiving a counter.” What was wrong with Aiken’s medical report? “He’s not a signed player, I still have to abide by Federal HIPAA regulations.” What next for Astros? “We’re going to get the second pick next year, we had a good draft class, I think there’s a lot of talent in this draft class and we will re-deploy those resources in a way that helps the Astros.” How did the team and Aiken get to this point? “It’s a complicated process, but the end result we reached out today in good faith and made three increasing offers and never received a counter. “We did nothing unethical, we did nothing disingenuous. We tried to sign good players at the appropriate values and that’s all we ever do with the draft. “The talent evaluation doesn’t change, we don’t change what we think about the player from a talent perspective. The risk profile changes when you get information that you don’t have when you select the player.” On having the extra pick (second) next year? “We’ll have to see how next year’s draft class develops. I think the slots are going up, so we’ll have the equivalent resources to spend in the draft, it’s just going to be next year instead of this year. I think it’s a one-year delay, and when you’re picking a young high school player, the chances of you getting someone next year that beats him to the big leagues is pretty good. I’m not that concerned about it. Obviously our fans are disappointed, we’re disappointed, because you take a 1-1 hoping to sign him, expecting to sign him. And it didn’t happen.” http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastro...he-failed-brady-aiken-signing-and-whats-next/[/rQUOTEr]
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>“Today, two young men should be one step closer to realizing their dreams of becoming Major League ballplayers," the baseball union said.</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/490257677264502784">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>"Because of the actions of the Houston Astros, they are not. The MLBPA, the players and their advisers are exploring all legal options.”</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/490257746634100737">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>So for those keeping score, you can likely add the baseball union as yet another person who might head to court against the Astros.</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/490257884479905792">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statuses/490257490429624321">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Keith Law is right that Nix has a good case..... but baseball isn't going to take the Astros pick away. The Astros have been working with MLB on this issue for sometime... the Astros don't pass on Aiken without assurance they will not lose their pick.
Oh to be 18 ans stupid again. UCLA co-eds you better brace yourself. Aiken has $5m to "earn" back. NIx will be his wingman. Good times.
Why does Nix have a good case? Has anyone confirmed that the he was not told that his 1.5 couldn't be completed until Aiken signed for underslot? Can he and his agent (that also "advised" Aiken) really claim ignorance on the bonus pool system?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Penny-wise/pound-foolish: If HOU was OK giving Aiken $5m, why not honor original $6.5m deal? Cost of fallout/perception greater than $1.5m.</p>— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/statuses/490259586474319872">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
why would he go to UCLA? he will be ineligible to be drafted for 3 more years? lol. poor kid. talk about bad advice.
The most important thing the Astros have lost isn't a 5th round pick, it's the credibility of not being a ****ty organization. As a big fan even I'm disgusted by the constant arrogant crap. And I think it's pretty obvious the reason they never got a counter is because they don't want to deal with these pricks.
I'm an economics major so the way I look at this is this. The Astros Value whoever they take next year and all the potential negative PR, distrust from future draftees, uncertainty with the draft system, and other negative externalities more than they value Aiken and Nix this year. On one side of the equation nearly every value is unknown, on the other you have two high school pitchers who may never make it. But that was also what you had before we learned about Aiken's elbow. From a purely rational standpoint this may make since, but it is also extremely risky especially if any pick loss comes from Nix's grievance. The Astros seem to like taking risks as taking Aiken in the first place was a huge one. However, when gauging the potential worst case scenario it almost seems like too huge a chance. If one uses the hand rule in a sort of abstract way , we could judge the Astros burden at 1.5 million dollars . This is how much more they would need to pay Aiken to sign. The potential loss is Nix's grievance wins and we lose our next 2 ? first round draft picks. This essentially causes us to lose a draft class. Since without first round pick money there can likely be no over slot signings and very limited high ceiling prospects. The probability of this happening is low however is the loss of essentially ~ 10 million dollars in draft bonuses worth the chance that Nix's grievance has any merit. If we value 2 first rounders at ~ 10 mil then B=PL and the Astros think Nix's grievance has less than a 15 % chance of being granted. Rationally they may be right and from a pure value standpoint this was the right move, however due to the fact that so many variables are unknown this is way more risky business than I want my FO engaged in especially with the 1.1 pick. One more thing I want to say about this whole scenario is the heat Aiken is taking for not taking 5 mil, that he wasn't acting Rationally. The thing is that people don't act rationally from an economic standpoint so I cant blame him, he has his reasons. The Astros should have realized the same thing and started offering more sooner to maybe get him to come to the table today. I hope this doesn't hurt the Astros too bad, but I cant help but feel pessimistic about how this will affect us .
At some point, the Astros need to realize that "technically" not doing something wrong can be just as damaging as actually doing something wrong. Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix are not Astros. You would have laughed at me had I told you that in mid-June. We did something wrong.
