And I just realized that I assumed the MRI was some negotiating ploy instead of a legit medical concern. I don't think that's a good thing when your diehard fans even assume that you're trying to be shady.
It would appear that "some of the most experienced and respected orthopedic arm specialists in the country" and the Astros's "highly regarded" medical director David Lintner have different opinions. 1/3 of the pitcing prospects will have TJ surgery. TJ surgery now has a fairly high recovery rate. If Aiken needs and has TJ surgery, he may go on to have a great MLB career, albeit delayed by 2 years or so. Given this possibility, Aiken's injury may not be "serious". But this non-serious injury does impact his market value.
I calling this what it is : BULLpoop. 17 year old Latin Americans have never signed for anything like this. Tanaka did but then again he was older and 100% MLB ready. I realize that the MLB draft is an artificial market, where the suggested bonuses *now* have to be followed versus blatantly disregarded. When in yesteryear when the big money teams like the Yankees did as they pleased, how many 17/18 year old pitchers sign for $10 million. How about none.
The difference is, in the draft & international free agency, there are 100s of players available. If there is only one player available, it drives the price way up.
Am I the only one who thinks there's a chance that Luhnow simply likes the top of the 2015 draft a hell of a lot more than he likes Aiken?
Agree completely. Sick of all the negative press we just seem to attract. It's always something with us.
If you'r suggesting that Luhnow is just stalling to get out of this pick, then you may be the only one. Luhnow has said himself that these drafts have so many working parts/elements that change from month to month, and very little (if at all) can be concluded about a class a full year in advance. I doubt he's willing to throw away the key pieces of this year's draft for a chance to do it all over again next year... and he's still going to have a top pick in next year's draft regardless of how this plays out.
I wondered about this during last year's draft. Once they picked Appel over Bryant/Gray, I wondered what kind of backlash a team would get if they picked a random guy #1 overall and offered the minimum to get the compensation for the following year's draft. That way we end up with #1 and #2 in this year's draft and come away with Rodon and Kolek. Just to clarify, this was a thought I had last year, and cardpire's post just reminded me of it.
GMs don't have their jobs forever. No way does he prefer the #2 pick in next years draft, though I'm sure he likes the added flexibility it would bring.
TJ surgery are to fix tears in the UCL, something that is usually picked up by MRI. Sure, some radiologists may read things slightly different, but its usually a consistent finding/diagnosis. My point is that if there are varying opinions on what the actual "injury" is... its likely not an obvious/no-brainer/needs surgery type one. And yes, Litner is highly regarded... but he's not the top orthopedic doctor in the country (or even the city), and at the end of the day he still works for the team.
But a good amount can be concluded about the player he has in hand/any other players who he had in consideration for 1.1 this year. If he viewed it as a weak top of the draft, and now any sort of elbow injury is further thrown into the mix, it wouldn't be an unreasonable calculated gamble to think that he can do better next year.
How many of our 2014 class signed over their assigned pick/slot value? I know we're waiting to sign Nix until Aiken's deal is done, but are there any other ramifications with respect to deals already signed?
Well, you can't offer a random guy the minimum, or he's going to take it. It would have to be a guy who is in the consensus mix for 1.1, who you don't think is worthy of 1.1.
