This seems like a better option, if Washington will agree to a S&T. There doesn't appear to be much difference between the money we would have left to spend if dipping under the cap and what the exemptions allow us to spend if we stay above it. Plus we still have a trade exemption.
Here's a table comparing what the cap situation looks like in the case the Rockets let Parsons go and in the case the Rockets matches Parsons. There may be some errors, but I did check the math. Let me know if you spot any. Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> No Match Parsons </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> Match Parsons -Before Matching </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> Matching Parsons - After Matching </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td> Player </td><td> 2014/2015 </td><td> 2015/2016 </td><td> </td><td> Player </td><td> 2014/2015 </td><td> 2015/2016 </td><td> </td><td> Player </td><td> 2014/2015 </td><td> 2015/2016 </td></tr> <tr><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> $21,436,271 </td><td> $22,359,364 </td><td> </td><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> $21,436,271 </td><td> $22,359,364 </td><td> </td><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> $21,436,271 </td><td> $22,359,364 </td></tr> <tr><td> James Harden </td><td> $14,728,844 </td><td> $15,756,438 </td><td> </td><td> James Harden </td><td> $14,728,844 </td><td> $15,756,438 </td><td> </td><td> James Harden </td><td> $14,728,844 </td><td> $15,756,438 </td></tr> <tr><td> Trevor Ariza </td><td> $8,579,088 </td><td> $8,193,029 </td><td> </td><td> Trevor Ariza </td><td> $8,579,088 </td><td> $8,193,029 </td><td> </td><td> Trevor Ariza </td><td> $8,579,088 </td><td> $8,193,029 </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $2,875,130 </td><td> $15,361,500 </td><td> </td><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $14,700,000 </td><td> $15,361,500 </td></tr> <tr><td> Terrence Jones </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td><td> </td><td> Terrence Jones </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td><td> </td><td> Terrence Jones </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td> Donatas Motiejunas </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td><td> </td><td> Donatas Motiejunas </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td><td> </td><td> Donatas Motiejunas </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td> Josh Powell </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Josh Powell </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Josh Powell </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Omri Casspi </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Omri Casspi </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Omri Casspi </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Beverley </td><td> $915,243 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Patrick Beverley </td><td> $915,243 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> Patrick Beverley </td><td> $915,243 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Isaiah Canaan </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td><td> </td><td> Isaiah Canaan </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td><td> </td><td> Isaiah Canaan </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Robert Covington </td><td> $150,000 </td><td> $- </td><td> </td><td> Robert Covington </td><td> $150,000 </td><td> $- </td><td> </td><td> Robert Covington </td><td> $150,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Roster Charges </td><td> $2,536,680 </td><td> $3,150,558 </td><td> </td><td> Roster Charges </td><td> $2,029,344 </td><td> $2,625,465 </td><td> </td><td> Roster Charges </td><td> $2,029,344 </td><td> $2,625,465 </td></tr> <tr><td> Additional Tax Charge </td><td> $2,138,389 </td><td> $2,533,098 </td><td> </td><td> Additional Tax Charge </td><td> $1,730,482 </td><td> $2,110,915 </td><td> </td><td> Additional Tax Charge </td><td> $1,730,482 </td><td> $2,110,915 </td></tr> <tr><td> Team Salary </td><td> $52,265,208 </td><td> $55,184,400 </td><td> </td><td> Team Salary </td><td> $54,633,002 </td><td> $70,020,807 </td><td> </td><td> Team Salary </td><td> $66,457,872 </td><td> $70,020,807 </td></tr> <tr><td> Salary for Tax Purpose </td><td> $54,403,597 </td><td> $57,717,498 </td><td> </td><td> Salary for Tax Purpose </td><td> $56,363,484 </td><td> $72,131,722 </td><td> </td><td> Salary for Tax Purpose </td><td> $68,188,354 </td><td> $72,131,722 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Level </td><td> $63,065,000 </td><td> $66,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> Cap Level </td><td> $63,065,000 </td><td> $66,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> Cap Level </td><td> $63,065,000 </td><td> $66,000,000 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Room </td><td> $10,799,792 </td><td> $10,815,600 </td><td> </td><td> Cap Room </td><td> $8,431,998 </td><td> $(4,020,807)</td><td> </td><td> Cap Room </td><td> $(3,392,872)</td><td> $(4,020,807)</td></tr> </table> There are 3 parts to this 1) The case where Houston does not match the contract (the left-most table), 2) During the remaining hours of the matching period, when Parsons counts as $2,88M (the middle table); and 3) what happens if the Rockets matches the deal (the right-most table). In any of these 3 cases, the Rockets can operate "over the cap"-- and use the Lin TPE [Assuming that HOU manages to get Ariza via a 3 team S&T with WAS. This is a deal which all 3 teams have incentive to particiapte] , the MLE and BAE instead of whatever "cap room" that they may or may not have plus the Room Exception. The main potential benefit for not matching Parsons are: 1. This season, it can have $10.8M in cap room (up to $12.8M or so if HOU trades away Jones and DMo for no $ in return) as oppose to only $8.4M (up to $10.4M if HOU trades Jones and DMo for no $ in return) during the remainder of the Parsons matching period and no cap room option (only TPE, MLE and BAE) after matching Parsons. This is only a benefit if there is someone that you can ONLY acquire via that $10.8-12.8M in cap room and CANNOT be acquired via either the $8.4-10.4M in cap room or a combination of TPE/MLE/BAE. 2. Next summer, letting Parsons go instead of matching takes you from being $4M over the cap (and maybe $7-8M below the tax line) to potentially $10.8M below the cap assuming you don't make any other moves. Taking on any new salary, including re-signing Daniels, will change the 2015 math. They also have Beverley hitting free agency. It's some flexibility for 2015, but what exactly that does for the team is uncertain. The team still needs to trade somebody (likely Ariza and more DMo) to clear room to sign a "max player" like Kevin Love. And as we learned this summer from Chris Bosh, Melo, Lowry, etc., having the room to go after a free agent, and even having a good roster including two star players, is no guarantee that you can actually land one.
I think it's clear Morey put all his chips on the table and attempted to go all-in this year, landing the 3rd star, locking up Parsons, then being free to sign Beverley next season without any worries. At the very best, biding our time AGAIN and waiting until next season to acquire the 3rd star Morey has been so vocal about getting has to be viewed as the worst case scenario. Judging from the way Morey has been operating this offseason, being a player in 2015-2016 was never supposed to be an option. I think 75% of GM's would match Parsons, find an elite Associate Head Coach, add veterans and go to battle with this group of guys barring a future in-season trade. I think Morey is in the 25% that would consider waiting until 2015-2016 and doing this all over again. We'll see how it plays out. He's analytical, he knows/thinks we need a 3rd legitimate top 25 player to have a real shot at a title. Morey's philosophy - you contend for titles or you're wasting your time. I'm not convinced Morey knows what he's going to do yet.
This is an excellent post. But even if we decide to preserve cap space by not matching Parsons and bide our time till next offseason, there's no guarantee we'll have enough cap-space to make a competitive offer (only $10 projected right now), and there's no guarantee that our top targets will seriously consider Houston. I think I'd be happier trying to pull off a trade to add a nice piece, match Parsons and go to war. Ariza and another piece, plus matching on Parsons can net us a championship.
Yeah I'd match Parsons. Especially considering how attached it appears our core players are to him. If Howard and Beverley are actively telling management to pay him, that says something.
I would be VERY SURPRISED if Morey and Mchale hadn't yet thought of offering KG a 2 year contract, with a player option in the second year. We can offer the remaining cap to KG. KG is essentially playing for nothing but money as a Net. If he comes to Houston, he can (1) play for the ring and (2) return to his closest mentor, and (3) get comparable salary *Since Texas doesn't have state tax, KG won't lose much $ if we offer him the remaining cap. Coming here is the ABSOLUTE BEST OPTION FOR BOTH HOUSTON and KG. KG's offensive production has declined, but he is still one of the very best defenders in the league. He and Dwight will be absolute menace defensively. His locker room presence, intensity, and leadership will bring the best out of our players. Jones will receive great mentoring from KG as well and hopefully can teach him how to become a better player. Dwight, KG, Ariza, and Beverley will form the best defensive starting lineup in the league.
Dude, Garnett is no a free agent. He is currently under a fully guaranteed 12 million dollar contract with Brooklyn Nets.
If we do a sign and trade before the parsons deadline , can we go over the cap ? For instance could we sign and trade Stephenson away from Indiana for pick etc Capella / Johnson ... And then also match parsons ? Note ... This doesn't apply only to Stephenson but I think he is probably the best player left that doesn't have a ton of suitors and could be swayed quickly.
I think we only need him for the late season push and playoff, and he can play 24 minutes a game. As a 38 year old guy, he still leads the league defensively: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM
I still personally think Garnett would be a good backup for Howard, although Garnett has major beef with Howard. Maybe McHale could get Garnett to be nice to Howard. Aside from that, Garnett would be a good 15 minute a night defensive backup center. He's currently on a 12 million dollar expiring contract and will most likely retire at the end of the season. If we could get Garnett back as a part of a 3 way deal in either the Asik or Lin trade, we'd make off with a pretty damn good back up center and a fantastic deadline expiring contract. Like I said, if we were to possibly try to trade for Love, I don't think there's a another expiring contract the Timberwolves would love more then Garnett, as he could retire with the team that drafted him and that he spent so many years with.
Good call. I didn't think about Love's implication. It's a low risk high reward move. It would be very beneficial even if it is just a for a short period. At the very least, KG will set great example for the young guys here. Sometimes players need to see how legends work to become the next legends.
According to my spreadsheet, we still have ~8.3 million to spend. Anderson or Ersan fit into that slot nicely
Not if we plan to operate over cap..then the Jeremy Lin trade exception is keeping us over cap right now. We could end up staying over cap and having our MLE and BAE...which we can use anytime throughout the season
i hope we listen to Doc and go with the route of building a bench. ariza and anderson (if we can get him) are a great start! we'd still need a veteran point guard and a backup center and only would have the minimum to offer.
