If I'm not mistaken, Jeff Luhnow felt that Aiken was the most polished high school pitcher that he'd ever seen.
It's not that simple. You wouldn't want the first overall pick to be a project, obviously. But few drafts have the perfect prospect. Jon Gray was acknowledged as a project coming out. And Kris Bryant may hit 60 HR this year, but he's striking out in a third of his plate appearances at AAA. All of these guys are going to need work. Frankly, there hasn't been a non-project prospect since Strasburg.
Aiken is 3 or 4 years away from The Bigs. His career path should be similar to Folty's. And there is about a 50% chance he never makes it. Thus, a project.
If you go by the unknown, everybody is a project. Aiken is supposed to be more ready than a lot of college pitchers. We've seen great HS pitchers move quickly in other systems.
But if you add in a year for Tommy John, 4 years is probably on the quick side We gotta sign him before we worry about developing him
Baseball draftees have a long road to the MLB. The odds are against most draftees of ever making it to the MLB. IIRC Aiken was developed for a HS pitcher and had the highest projectable upside. I suspect that if Aiken went to UCLA that he would struggle his first year adjusting to the higher level of competition. If Aiken signs, he is more likely than not starting next year in Greeneville, for the entire year.
just offer him the minimum of 3.4 mil or whatever and if he rejects it then we'll just get the #2 pick next season. lots of good prospects next season anyways
what leverage does aiken really have here? if he goes to college no way he'll be drafted in the top 5 again with teams knowing some sort of elbow injury here. id offer him the bare minimum and if he takes it good, if not take cameron. a legit outfield prospect with lots of pop, screw taking pitchers. look what has happened to appel and now aiken.
That is a little more than 1.4 bonus money ($4,621,200). It is a low percentage play on Aiken's part to pass on this offer expecting a better pay day 3 years from now.
What's the deal with Troy Scribner? Undrafted guy from last year, and he has done nothing but dominate since he started pro ball.
If he goes to college, then he has 3 years to fix the elbow issue...unless he goes to juco, in which he would be eligible again next year.
with teams not having the ability to do physicals, in 3 years you really think a team is going to risk taking him top 5 again?
I understand but you're not going to throw away the #1 pick if this kid has legit elbow issues. If he needs tommy johns at his age, then may god help us
The surgery itself, with recovery time and ability to get back to 100% is at a point of consistency now that I almost hope it's something totally fixable, rather than it being some strange degenerative/chronic tendinitis type thing.
