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The salary cap and why the Parsons contract is the new normal

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Jul 10, 2014.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    It can be debated whether Parsons is "worth it" or not. It seems that Cuban thinks "yes" and the Rockets think "maybe, maybe no, depends on what other moves we get to make."

    BTW, I don't buy that Cuban offered Parsons to an amount he personally thinks is a huge overpay for the sole purpose of screwing with the Rockets. Why would he even want to risk having a stupid contract on his team just to screw with only 1 out of 29 competing teams. It's not like HOU is DAL's only rival for the title or even the biggest threat against DAL.

    What I do think is true and is difficult to argue against is that the market being what it is due to the CBA/Cap factors described in the OP, if you are going to sign someone like Parsons, the price is going to be nearly as high as the Parsons offer.

    Parsons and Hayward already get paid. Ariza and Deng (older guys with more wear and tear) won't be far behind and already turned down $9M and $10M per year offers. Ancient Paul Pierce is said to want $9m per. Klay Thompson is asking for the max.


    You can decide not to pay the price, but then you won't land the player or someone at his level.
     
  2. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    15 million is the new 12 million.
     
  3. dlite316

    dlite316 Member

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    compare batum's contract with parsons'
    batum 11.8/58=20.3%
    parsons 15/63=23.8%
    parsons' contract is worse. to make it equal, salary cap has to be 74 mil, 15/74=20.3%.
    the projected cap 80 mil is in 3 years, 15/80=18.7%, yes, it will be normal by then. However, it is not reasonable to pay parsons 15 mil per based on future projected cap.
    F**k cuban, he did this to screw us because we got howard.
     
  4. micah1j

    micah1j Member

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    If the cap is 80 million in 2016 then Dwight will be eligible for a 5 year 161 million contract. 30 million a year is the new 20 million a year.
     
  5. joepu

    joepu Member

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    Good post. It's very possible even MLE level players would be getting 8-10 million a couple of years from now.
     
  6. beastlyball

    beastlyball Member

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    Nobody is comparing it to Batum's or players who signed years ago. The simple fact is that he got a max contract, and for a guy that's not even an all-star that is crazy anyway you slice it.
     
  7. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Yeah, we've been seeing this coming. And players want more. There's a storm brewing. We're due for a new CBA. If I was an agent, and my client was healthy and young, I'm not signing anything over 2 years. The cap on max deals is going up. Soon.
     
  8. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Carl Herrera. Quit overthinking this: no matter if cap goes up or not, you can't give 25% of your cap to Parsons. If you always pay your starters max, each year, you will run out f money

    Your argument only makes sense is we get bosh or something and parsons. Then we are locked in for good or bad. But that's not a new take. Many ppl here say that

    You can't pay Parsons max right now, with a trade kicker and PO, unless you need to keep a big salary on the books for trade purposes.
     
  9. basketballholic

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    Quit looking at 25% in a vacuum. Take measure of this team and it's place in the hierarchy of the NBA right now and what the options are. If you don't match..you lose the talent and you DO NOT GAIN the cap space!! And your division competitor gets better.

    This is a key strategic time for the Rockets because Parsons only counts as $2.8 million against the cap for 3 more days. We need to maximize those 3 days, acquire as much talent as possible, then match this offer and move forward. We can always trade him LATER for something of value.
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    ^^.

    You can't spend your cap on parsons now. You throw Way your FAncy options.
    It is very clear you guys are going out of your way to justify a max contract to Parsonas, when three weeks ago non of you would have agreed to it

    You guys are talking like amateur real estate investor who believe the cap will always outpace yearly salary raises. And players will always increase performace to match their raises

    That only makes since if we get Bosh or another 3rd star. Then, yeah, break the bank on exceed the luxury tax to keep Parsons. But he is not a third star. So without first using your cap space on anothe player, you are pretty much throwing you FAncy options out the window for a long time

    And don't think this cap money is free and the world is changing and you can spend all you want

    If you believe that, I got a house with a ballon payment to sell you
     
    #30 heypartner, Jul 10, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2014
  11. joepu

    joepu Member

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    In the end, the question is whether or not you want to waste another year of Dwight's prime. There is no one currently on the market that will give you the same contribution for a lower price. Deng and Ariza are the closest and they are looking for at least $12m per.
     
  12. basketballholic

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    Not true. I thought about the possibility of Parsons getting a max offer. I figured it would be for less years and Morey would top it with long-term money at a lower cap figure. I don't have a problem with overpaying Parsons for a couple seasons. Parsons has given us 3 great years where he was EXTREMELY underpaid. What I'm having a problem with is Parsons actually going through and signing an offer sheet from Cuban. I think he could've gotten 5/60 or 5/65 from Morey and I think he should've waited. But it's his business.

    I definitely think we should match. No question about it.
     
  13. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    And also. This whole cap thing increasing doesn't mean jack **** if you don't have any more players on your team worth spending bird rights max money on

    We will always have less cap than our competitors if we waste it

    Do y'all understand that. You always have an advantage with more cap flexibility. No matter how you slice it. Quit thinking we are all going to have the same amt of money to spend in the candy store.

    We wont
     
  14. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    I await BimaThugs next blog post

    "It's been a fun run working out the CBA and the Rockets cap situation. But due to new circumstances, I'm going to retire.

    I just ran the numbers on the increasing cap. I no longer think the cap matters anymore, because all teams will have unlimited amount of money to spend. I also near Morey is firing his cap analysts staff, too. The cap doesn't matter any more"
     
  15. verysimplejason

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  16. WinkFan

    WinkFan Member

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    So what you are saying is, it somehow makes sense to use the entire increase in the cap to overpay one guy.
     
  17. Jpripper88

    Jpripper88 Member

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    The problem with rationalizing his salary to the possible future $80m cap is: with the player option, we will not get that advantageous year. When you account for Dwight's option it matters even less. If the cap jumps to that number and neither has fallen off significantly in ability or for injury then both opt out and get dollars in line with the same percentage of the cap. If they fall off they opt in and likely are not worth those dollars. So if the argument is: Parsons is unlikely to be worth 25% of the cap now, but when it is $80m he will be worth more than 20%, then you are disregarding the fact he would just opt out at that point anyways and you don't gain that advantageous year. That is why the player option is a killer for him, even if the cap sky rockets.
     
  18. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    This multiplied by 1 billion.
     
  19. verysimplejason

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    Crazy for you maybe. It's not crazy when someone can pay. It's Cuban's money after all. Call him crazy but it's his money. :rolleyes:
     
  20. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    The important issue here isn't that the cap went up by 7 or 8% over what it was during the 6 years before it.

    The important issue here is that, as a result of this 7 or 8% increase and other factors, the market for Parson6s-level SFs and pretty much all NBA free agents have gone up by far more than just the 7 or 8% increase in the cap level. In fact, we are probably talking about something like a 20% or even 30%+ increase in what the same player would sign for just 1 or 2 years ago.

    Gordon Hayward, for example, turned down an extension offer reported to be around $12M per year last October, which would have been around the market price for him under the $58M or so cap back then (and is a little more than what Nic Batum signed for), and have now signed an offer sheet averaging $15.75M per year, a more than 30% increase over $12M.

    27-year-old Channing Frye signed a $6M per year contract in 2010. In 2014, 31-year-old Channing Frye signed a $8M per year contract (after he declined the $6.8M option on the final season of the prior deal) and signed a $8M/year deal that lasts for 4 seasons. This is a 33% increase over what he got previously.

    The consequences of the market are two-fold:

    A) The price for finding a substitute FA for Parsons has also gone up, meaning that going with the likes of Trevor Ariza or Luol Deng instead of Parsons won't save you much money or afford you much additional flexibility. What exactly, for example, do you gain by signing one of these guys to a $12M or $13M starting salary vs. the $14.7M that Parsons signed for? Maybe there is that one great talent that you absolutely need the money for. If so, then do it's a big deal. Otherwise, that saving may not mean much.


    B) As more players are signed to much more generous contracts (Frye, Bradley, Hayward, Vasquez, Deng, Ariza....) under the current cap conditions, Parsons' deal won't look all that big in comparison and is unlikely to be an albatross.

    [Corollary to this: Contracts signed under prior cap conditions, especially if they have 3 or 4 years still left on them will now tend to look AWESOME for the teams in comparison with the new contracts signed this year and beyond. James Harden's contract, in particular, may well be the most awesome contract in all of basketball because it lasts for 4 more years with no player option (and yes, this is true even considering his crappy defense) (and the awesomeness of his contract means it makes for a great trade bait).]
     

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