"Elbow ligament issue"? Well that's vague. Could range from minor to needing a full UCL reconstruction (also known as Tommy John surgery). Yeah the Astros would have taken Rodon or Kolek had this been known. Wow, I hate to jump to crazy conclusions, but we could conceivably have whiffed on 2 straight 1-1 picks. Incredibly pathetic. (but I think Appel will turn it around yet, but it's not a good start)
Any cash from any source is generally a good thing. If it potentially allows us to give a $10m/yr contract in FA this offseason as opposed to a $9m/year contract, then I'm okay with biting the bullet here.
Considering they already handed out a $10 million dollar contract last season, and considering that they've all said they will spend "only when the time is right"... Sorry, I don't see these "savings" being any sort of silver lining right now. Just a really concerning situation all around.
The full bonus amount will count against our pool, resulting in potentially losing out on Jacob Nix, who we would no longer be able to pay the $1.5M agreed upon bonus. We'll have to offer him a minimum of $3.17M in order to get compensation next year. Lets say he has to take a significant cut, could there be enough money to change Mac Marshall's mind? Maybe dreaming, but you never know. The team as far as we know, only had $1,039,810 left in pool+overage.
If Aiken ends up signing for $5MM, the Astros would be able to direct those savings towards signing Mac Marshall, correct? Assuming Aiken heals to 100%, a draft of Aiken, Fisher, Reed, JD Davis, Nix & Marshall would be successful in terms of players with real big league starter upside.
Honestly, I'm not surprised that a guy that was handled with caution during his amateur career has an issue. I don't believe it helps in preventing long-term injury. On the heels of Correa's injury & Appel's struggles, this is just awful.
Astros County has the remaining pool at $544,500. The overage limit is 5% of the total pool which is $668,110. Without an Aiken discount, the Astros could offer Marshall $100,000 plus the remaining pool plus the overage limit which totals to $1,322,610. Marshall wants $2 million. A $677,390 haircut for Aiken would given Marshall is 2 large.
If all of the teams knew about Aiken's injury, he would likely not be the 1.1 selection. Aiken will have to take a haircut.
They are essentially valuing him as the 3rd-4th pick, assuming the current reports are true. This isn't a case where "not having to pay 1.1 money" is a feather in their cap, it's an admission that he wasn't worthy of being drafted 1.1. I don't see how any sort of ligament issue on a high school pitcher could ever be a complete non-issue or concern going forward. Pitchers, and especially high school pitchers are super high risk to begin with (as we all know). Any sort of elbow ligament issue straight out of the gate seems like a monstrous red flag, and unnecessary risk. I have not spent much time researching the 2015 draft, but, by all accounts, it's much better at the top than this year's, correct? Forgoing this year's virtual 1.3 for next year's 1.2 seems prudent. Things change, as they did with Rodon, but, Cameron's son and the TCU pitcher sounds tasty.
I edited my post earlier. I only had Aiken's pool amount wen I calculated the 5%. I don't think they have the right pool amount. Aiken's slot is off from what BA has, and he's only included confirmed bonuses, which I guess is the other difference. Edit: I'm not really sure what is off, but I've added up the saving and subtracted the overages based on what has been reported to BA's pools, and I get $371,100 as the remaining pool.
That sets the floor for what the Astros *have* to offer Aiken. $3.17 million is roughly the slot money for pick 1.8. (Given his ligament issues, Aiken could very well fell out of the first round). As you mentioned, we have to sign Aiken if we want to sign Nix. At this point the money play would be to subtract from Aiken's $6.5 signing bonus whatever it takes to get Marshall to sign and hope one of Aiken, Nix or Marshall become a ToR MLB starter. Taken at his word, Luhnow wants to sign Aiken. This implies that the ligament issue does not preclude a $3.17 million offer. Signing Aiken at $5.5 million or less should free up enough money to sign Marshall. From Aiken's perspective, the change would be roughly going from pick 1.2 slot ($6,821,800) to pick 1.3 slot ($5,721,500).
Let's find out what exactly is wrong first. It is possible that it works out better for the Astros if they can save 500K and use that money to sign Marshall and Nix. Then the Astros get three of the top 10 prep arms in the country all signed.
Nothing is ever a sure thing... But you can't deny the fact that they though Aiken was the best player in this draft, and are still willing to sign him. Yes, HS pitchers with potential injury issues are a risk.... They also have more time to heal (even if it is the worst case UCL issue). Still can't believe he pitched as well as he did if it was a "disastrous" injury. Again, presuming the discount is enough to get another signable player who is currently demanding more, and presuming the injury is not terrible, id take the discounted Aiken plus the additional players vs having to go through all this again next year x 2 (with the chances being they are going to have the #1 pick anyways, and are going to be highly scrutinized in their judgement on who is the "best" player).
