2 are impossible and one is highly unlikely (Clippers). The Clippers will be intriguing, but I think the Rockets have it if he's gonna leave.
Cleveland is highly unlikely as well. I'm sure in theory he'd like to play in Cleveland again as it is hometown, but it's doubtful he wants to play for Dan Gilbert and it's doubtful he wants to play in a city that other stars won't join.
It really is shaping up a lot like last year with Dwight where there is a lot of talk, but there was always one obvious choice. Unless all 3 guys in Miami opt out (which I highly doubt) and collude to bring in help once again, I think Lebron is gone and I can't think of a better spot than Houston for him to land.
And your response made me think about some players who need money for their lifestyle (isn't that how an argument on opinions should go?). I should have said Key FA or just Lebron but I stand by what I said concerning Lebron. You are right that some players are completely driven by money/checks but Lebron isn't an ordinary player and the sterling situation should be enough for him to look elsewhere. That or it gets miraculously resolved but I doubt a guy who was talking about sitting out next year if he was still owner signs with the team he still owns.
And if he feels that way about the Clippers owner then he would have to feel a certain way about the Cav's owner too. Lesley Alexander played it smart and said some strong stuff regarding getting Sterling out the league.
To be completely honest, with as little bias as possible, I believe its Miami or Houston. Most Likely: Lebron stays with Heat... sweet. I dont think he will go anywhere in the east for 2 reasons: 1. He should just stay in miami for more money and just as good a team.. 2. Other than Cleveland, anywhere he goes he will be beyond hated anytime he plays the heat, and cleveland just isnt good enough, also i believe the "Jordan factor" in chicago is a thing Reasons for Rockets: If his goal is winning, he has to go to the West, they will be beating the East for the next few years unless the heat keep him and pull off som miraculous signings. Houston is in position to get him WHILE KEEPING THEIR STAR CORE. the only other team close to this is the Clippers and they would still have to drop deandre jordan and crawford... probably others, plus the whole sterling thing All in all, I think it is a no brainer, I know I sound biased but it is literally ridiculous for all the naysayers to not have us up top in contention. I fully believe he will be staying in miami (90%) but if he leaves I can think of NOWHERE else that makes sense. Unless you bring in how much media and a tourism spot each city is, and if thats how he makes his decision then we will have DECISION 3.0 in another 3 yrs and 0 rings later
Today's Lowe Post podcast with Zach Lowe and Brian Windhorst talks extensively about all the Lebron possibilities and their feelings on each teams likelihood of pulling it off. http://cdn16.castfire.com/audio/303...tp://grantland.com/podcasts/grantland-sports/ For anyone who can't get enough basketball talk it's pretty much a must listen. They also showed some love for Morey and his mastery of the cap. Basically saying while most would say his biggest contribution to basketball has been the push of using analytics, but that really his understanding and manipulation of the cap rule is what has really set him apart.
"The Lowe and Windhorst report"(as mentioned above) BW: Some of the stuff I'm hearing being pitched, stuff they are thinking they can do is borderline insane. People think anything is possible. It's not just draft related stuff. We're talking about, some names I've heard get moved into salary cap space, I don't want to get into it too deeply but...we're in for a bizarre few weeks here. ZL: Dan Fegan, I assume Houston has an agreement with Dan Fegan, we'll sit you out in free agency, let us play around, we'll get someone and we'll sign you to X amount and don't sign an offer sheet. I assume they have that prearranged. BW: If you want to mess with Houston, would you consider offering Parsons a max offer sheet and mess that up? We've seen that in the past. Parsons is an interesting case. Houston is electing to make him a free agent earlier than they have to. They are spending money they don't have to this year. I assume you're right that they know how much he'll cost but when you have a free agent, you put yourself in position where you lose control. Parsons is not their first priority. It's to offload salary and try to get Carmelo or LeBron. When you lose control, weird stuff happens and we're in a weird stuff happens summer. ZL: LeBron is the big dog. It's a story that LeBron is a free agent and will take meetings. It's a story because other teams we don't expect, I won't name them, will come out and make a play for him. He's out of the Heat's control, even if he and Riley have an understanding. He's still out there. Being out there is a big deal. Am I overstating it? BW: LeBron exercised his option six days before he had too. LeBron, by the timing of it, is sending a signal. 1) He wants the Heat to make a maneuver with the draft pick. 2) I am so uncertain that I want to let everyone have as much time as possible. The feel in the league, but only LeBron knows, is that he's in play. There is a belief he can be taken and gotten this summer. Because of that, teams will go wild. He opted out early and sent a signal he is looking around. 1) Because he is a HOF at age 29, we're talking about a rare situation. 2) You have a lot of roster flexibility out there. There's realistic ways you can try and get him. It is a big deal. ZL: How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? Is it a lock he signs a four to five-year contract? Two years with an opt out? If you're a star and you can do it, you should time your free agency for when the new TV deal kicks in. You should get in the market by then to lock in the biggest possible deal. BW: The least likely option is to sign to four to five years. If he stays in Miami, I think it's a one year plus one. If he goes elsewhere, I see maybe a three-year deal with fourth year player option or even two plus one. LeBron has never been the highest paid player on his team. He always made less in Cleveland. He's tied with Chris Bosh now. He's never been the highest paid player on his team. Money is not the end all be all but he feels like he gets gypped. In his head, he has made concessions for that. He says okay, if I can't get the max, other things will be important to me. If the Heat could pay him $45 million, he would not be a free agent. Because the max salary is reduced from where the market value is, he looks for other things. One thing valuable to him beyond money is flexibility. ZL: Realistic LeBron candidates, I've been operating under the assumption, once you get below a $15 million base salary, you're stretching the pay cut he's willing to take. That's me. Not inside info. I'm assuming south of that, you're out of the ball game unless you can offer something extraordinary. Wrong to assume that? Can you get him at $10 or $12 million? BW: After 2010, careful to rule anything out. At this point, not likely to take a one year deal at the mid-level or even $10 million. That affects how he gets paid further down the line. Going backwards to $13 or 14$ million from the $20 million he makes this year has ramifications in the long run. Let's say the Rockets cleared $20 million and the Rockets gave him a one year deal, I think the Rockets would sign him to a one year deal. Then, even though they don't have his bird rights, they can give him a raise. Now lets say the Clippers and he plays for $3 million mid-level. In a year, the Clippers are still in the same boat. He's willing to take a haircut a little bit but not anything ridiculous. ZL: Clippers, my hunch is the Clippers is a real thing. It will be hard for them to pull it off. Assuming they want to keep Griffin, the only realistic way is to dump every other player they have so it's Paul, Griffin and cap space. More realistic than that is Jordan and attaching other players or dumping them elsewhere. Everyone wants to say Miami would never do that but everyone does it when you have no other choice. I think the Clippers thing is real but odds are heavily, heavily stacked against it. I think it's real. BW: I think if he's gonna leave somewhere, that's an attractive place to leave. He has to get to the point in his head where he says I can't make this work in Miami. If the Heat improve here and there, I think he's inclined to give them another year. They have home court and East advantage. Why go West? You've played your whole career in the East. If he does go to the Clippers, the Clippers are limited in what they can do. I don't believe Griffin is untouchable. Rivers, if given LeBron or Blake, he's taking LeBron. Let's be real. That said, LeBron isn't going to the Clippers if Blake comes off. Heat do a sign and trade? I believe they would. If LeBron leaves, I believe Riley would retire. His long term plan is to move to Malibu, ideally with the Lakers, where he can get a nice salary. I do think you can force a sign and trade through but it would have to be on LeBron's term. To clear cap space, that's a challenge. They don't have a first round pick. The first pick they could attach is 2017. It's possible but it would take a sledge hammer. It's on the board but not number one on LeBron's list. ZL: I don't know what else is on the board. He's not gonna consider out of the box ideas like Phoenix or Atlanta. Chicago is in position to control what happens in the offseason with Love, LeBron and 'Melo. I don't see him doing it. I don't see Cleveland. They're not ready. I could be wrong. I think it's Miami 98%, Clippers 1.75% and no third team there. BW: That's why LeBron opted out on June 24, to see if something else develops. What if the Warriors make the Love deal and figure out a team they can offload Iguodala to? They could get in position. Those are the scenarios we are talking about. You need two miracle deals to come through. LeBron's not going to Atlanta. Your point is, there is not a lot of options. I agree. There may be an option that opens up in next 7-10 days. Cavs, it may be a win for them if LeBron stays in Miami on a one year deal. I don't love the idea of ripping up their team. If you can't appeal to him now and he signs a short deal, why not develop Irving and Wiggins and see what David Blatt does. Cavs may be in better position next year. If I were the Cavs, I'd focus on being as good as I can in the short term and appeal organically rather than organize my roster to shoot his eye in our direction. ZL: That roster, if I'm LeBron, you need a big man to win. You can't win four rounds without big guys. Varejao is in decline and always hurt. Thompson declined. Bennett a disaster. Zeller is backup. Hawes is a free agent. I need to see something on the front line that shows me I have a rim protector or floor spacer in place for me. I don't see that yet. If I'm LeBron and I'm getting older and need help, that's what I'm looking at. BW: People ripped the Cavs for the Bennett pick. Who in the top five or six would have made a difference for them? Oladipo? Noel? The pick they made where they messed up, they seriously considered Drummond. Everyone always says Barnes or Waiters. That's not where it was. It was Drummond and Waiters. Drummond scared the heck out of them in their workout. Pistons were blown away when he first got there by what he didn't know about the basics of the game. If they had him, could you imagine how much more an intriguing place they would be? That's the pick they had a chance there. I'll give them a pass on last year's draft. They took Waiters over Drummond and had reasons for doing that but it turned out they would be better with that big. ZL: Clippers ownership situation has to be resolved. This is all based on Ballmer owning the team. BW: Another reason to sign a one year deal in Miami. ZL: Golden State getting Love and LeBron or Melo, mechanically they could probably make it work. They'll have to trade Iguodala to make it happen. When you're talking about three different transactions to make one, it almost never happens. Boston wants Love but don't have the players. Now they're trying to strike a pre-Love deal where they trade something to get something that Minnesota wants. It's too hard. Does it make sense? BW: Yes, that's what we have across the LeBron landscape. Teams have to execute three to four deals to make it work. I sat in this seat in 2010 and said the Heat, maybe they'll trade Beasley and what about Cook and their first round pick? They offloaded all of them. Unloading them though is easier than a guy like Iguodala. Even a year ago, Golden State pulled something out of the hat, although paid dearly, pulled something out of the hat. Things not possible a few years ago are now possible, especially with guys like Sam Hinkie operating in this league who are willing to swallow $10-12 million in salary for a first rounder and two second rounders. If Houston offered Sam Hinkie a first round pick and two second round picks or 1st round pick and Motiejunas for the right to take on Lin, they'd do it in a heartbeat. ZL: Hinkie won't care that people are angry for helping his old friend. BW: Jazz again have enormous amount of cap space again this summer they may be willing to rent out again. Because that exists out there, I want to stop short of saying it's not possible. That little window is emboldening teams like the Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, and Rockets who are trying to pull off this massive maneuver. ZL: They should leave those doors open. This is a media thing that drives me crazy because I do the same thing. Life is a grey area. If there's a 4% of something happening, it could happen. When you look stupid in the media is when you say this will never happen. A) You're trying to raise a stink and sound certain B) 10 games in 2010, the Heat are a failure, scrap it, they'll never win and LeBron doesn't have it in him. That's not how life works. BW: Also, we're in the time of year where things like this happens. Like I said before, the LeBron deal was the culmination of 7 or 8 moves the Heat were making for a year. The Bulls for example, they've made 5-6 moves over the past year to set this up. We're in an era of unprecedented star movement. There's a reason. People are willing to take on huge money. ZL: BUlls signing Murphy, Brewer and non-sense deals as trade chips, and by the way, they are the team people should be terrified about. They have enough trade assets and Mirotic overseas to trade for a superstar player without giving up Boozer. The longer they have Boozer, they keep the amnesty bullet to use to open cap space now. If they add salary, even $4-$5 mil, amnestying Boozer may not be enough to get a guy like Lebron but they're the team with enough stuff, where those wild scenarios, they don't sound so wild. Chicago has a lot of control over what happens and we have no idea how Rose will be. BW: They're putting out there Rose looks great and for a reason. The Bulls are in a favorable position to get one of those three done. LeBron least likely. Carmelo most likely. Any of those three moves, I would consider them favorites to win the East. They're in a wonderful position. They have these assets and adding Rose coming back, they play in the East, the mountain they have to climb is less. Warriors had a great offseason and ended up 6th. Rockets had maybe the best offseason and couldn't get out of the first round. The Bulls are positioned beautifully. They have to execute. They're in the green zone. I don't see how they come out of this summer without a major upgrade. ZL: If they don't do anything huge, it's a disappointment. They need to do something this summer. ... Utah, I think Utah-Cleveland trade talks around the draft, that's fascinating. Utah has five young players. We've seen some of those guys for 3-4 seasons. Everyone was so excited about that core, if you deal Favors and Burks or two of those pieces for the number one pick, that's a fascinating discussion. You've been selling this for two years, one bad tank year. Then you say they're not good enough, let's see if we can get the number one pick, that's a fascinating move by Utah. This rebuild, we think they're not quite good enough, let's get another piece even if it's a step back. BW: Cavs could exact a kings ransom for the number one pick and position themselves for LeBron in a year. It won't help now. The Cavs have talked to the Magic about Afflalo. Cavs don't want Favors because that's $12 mil on their books when recruiting free agents. Cavs are getting offers because the Bucks made clear they're not trading their pick. They want one of Parker or Wiggins with the Greek Freak. Jazz would love Jabari Parker, for their market. They would embrace a guy like that. They're under immense pressure to do that deal. The Magic are offering crazy stuff. Not sure the Cavs are willing to listen to these offers. If you could get two lottery picks and Afflalo, you could trade Waiters for a pick outside the lottery. You could come out with 3 first round picks and Afflalo, that would be tremendous. I don't think the Cavs are thinking like that. ZL: The Embiid injury, when he was the consensus guy, that gave Cleveland a clean road map into how to use the pick. He would have been an easy pick there. That's gone now. It will be fascinating to see how far he slips. Greek Freak, he might be 7'6 by next season. BW: The Bucks want Parker because he's a Chicago guy. The Cavs would have been willing to swap picks. Cavs would move to two but wanted the Greek Freak. Bucks weren't interested. ZL: By the way, the Jazz wanting Parker because he's Mormon and Bucks wanting him because he's from Chicago, this isn't how you should be making decisions. These are enormous assets. It reminds me of Indiana, like George Hill being from Indianapolis being the final selling point for us. You can't make decisions like that. Make it in basketball terms. Make it based on basketball and nothing else. BW: You know this, sometimes your owner wants to do it so you make the call and don't sell it as hard and you're told no and it gets out there that you were interested in it, sometimes GMs act under orders and their hearts aren't in it. I know that happens regularly. Owner management is prevalent. ZL: What are the Lakers doing? Overpaying for leftovers? BW: Someone in the league texted me today and said Team USLA: LeBron, Carmelo and Coach K. You laugh but then think, hmm, Coach K did get them to play together. He's not leaving Duke but wait, he's 67. Lakers have everything on the table. If Kobe had taken $18 mil, not $23.5, $18 million or had been a free agent now and they had an extra $5 1/2, it would so much open up their options. Kobe sitting at $23 million, if you're LeBron or Melo, is Kobe gonna come back and run the show after 2 injuries? People are saying he can't keep playing with Wade, well at least he still plays. Kobe played 6 games and is on the cap for $48 million. I understand why they did it but it put handcuffs on them. I do believe they can get rid of Nash but would lose the #7 pick. I don't know. Kobe polarizes everything. ZL: It's the Lakers. They always get what they want. We're conditioned to think whatever they want, they get it. They're in a real danger zone over the next 3-4 years. If I'm a star, I'm not going there. If they trade the pick to offload salary, if they don't nail a big signing and one isn't enough, the road map to get back to championship contention is dodgier than Lakers optimist realize. I'd be very worried if I was a Lakers fan. BW: You could get down to Kobe and 12 cap holds, in the neighborhood of 30 something million. ZL: Credible but pay cut offers to two guys. BW: Again, if Kobe took $5-$6 million less or was a free agent now, it would open up a complete new world. They didn't. It passed. I think they swing for the fences, ultimately wouldn't surprise me if they sit on it. I think you take a knee this year and hit the market in 2015. ZL: Stretch provision, that's market inefficiency. Teams haven't figured out how to use that. Everyone is panicking about Kevin Martin, stretch it after one year. Everything we mentioned before about timing, if you don't have guys knowing the cap like Larry Coon, you're at a disadvantage. You need geniuses to see seven steps ahead. BW: People think Daryl Morey's biggest influence on the league has been his intro to analytics. Daryl's manipulation of the salary cap to his advantage has been his biggest influence. ZL: I bet you he's not done. BW: Right. They traded for Harden and signed Howard and fully believe they can sign Parsons and another near max FA. Warriors, yeah they want Chip Engelland, the Cavs just spent...Ty Lue's contract, they gave him a 3 year contract, $1.25, $1.5 mil, and $1.75 mil to be an assistant. ZL: That's bat**** insane. I don't want to hear LeBron and Lue are close. They're friendly. BW: These people who show up to Sloan every year and have their papers and want to get hired as a consultant, stop doing that. There is a dearth of people who can do salary cap stuff. You want to be an expert? Spend the next 2 years going over the salary cap and going over every sentence. Salary cap gymnastics, the ability to do that is so important. You guys who go to Sloan and hoping your paper gets noticed by a GM, go download the CBA and print it out and spend the next 2 years with it. You can get a job in the NBA. ZL: There are people conversant with the cap. There are people who can work for one team and see their own team's scenarios play out and there are like 5 guys who can do that simultaneously for all 30 teams. Those guys are enormously valuable. http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=11134317
The Lowe/Windhorst podcast was great! Loved the Morey Cap management stuff at the end. But I was really disappointed they didn't explore more with LeBron and the Rockets. The fit, and how much of a threat Houston is (or isn't) in terms of a temptation for LeBron to leave Miami for Houston.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Can confirm the <a href="https://twitter.com/lesleyabravanel">@lesleyabravanel</a> report about LeBron, Wade & Bosh meeting. Now, remember, stalking is impolite.</p>— Ethan J. Skolnick (@EthanJSkolnick) <a href="https://twitter.com/EthanJSkolnick/statuses/481908785686913024">June 25, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Sam Amick: http://www.theticketmiami.com/podcast_lebatard.aspx (on the side) Any more chance Carmelo stays in NY? I don't see it. I felt Houston had a good pitch. If LeBron stays put, Houston had a good shot. Rank what would be the most likely possibility or most attractive team if not Miami? I feel like I've been putting Cleveland on the side for a long time. I'm standing pat with that, even though others are reporting it's a real option. I have a hard time envisioning that scenario. I've been enamored with the Rockets pitch and fascinated with it. Full disclosure, I talked to those guys last week. It's pretty attractive. Chicago, LeBron or anyone, you have to answer how do they look at Rose and will he stay healthy? The Clippers thing is interesting for LeBron but so much has to be done. Indications are that Griffin still untouchable so that's a non-starter. If LeBron can play with these two teammates: Paul and Griffin, Howard and Harden, Wade and Bosh. How are you selling Wade and Bosh ahead of those other two? It's tough. We saw how challenged that group was. It is a hard pitch. That's why we have to see more. Those other situations are appealing. The Clippers are good but there is some concern when it comes to Chris Paul and LeBron. LeBron likes to have the ball and Chris is the most ball-dominating point guard in the league. That could be a problem but still a good problem to have. Harden likes the ball too but Howard would shore things up defensively with LeBron on the perimeter. That's why I'm dying to see what Pat Riley has up his sleeve. He's always found a way to get things done. It'll have to be something new. More Amick: <iframe width="670" height="377" scrolling="no" src="https://media.iheart.com/player/embed.html?autoStart=false&useFullScreen=true&mid=24952043&siteid=727&startButtonColor=0xA33335&share=http://www.am570radio.com/media/podcast-petros-and-money-PetrosAndMoney/petros-and-money-show-sam-amick-24952043/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" ></iframe> Carmelo is wearing a ______ by the start of next season? Carmelo is wearing a Rockets jersey. We'll see. Chicago is intriguing. How does 'Melo trust Rose's knees? Rockets are recruiting hard already. My premise is LeBron stays and 'Melo goes to Houston.
Nothing groundbreaking, but Tim Legler just said on one of those Sportscenter segments he would like to see Lebron go to Houston. Citing our ability to offer near max while still having a great group for Lebron to fit into.
If we can get the media behind this, maybe there wouldn't be as much backlash? The fan reaction is the main reason I believe LeBron will stay in Miami.
Houston is undeniably the best basketball fit for right now and the future for Lebron. The clippers would be up there with Houston if not for the fact that they will have to get rid of either DeAndre Jordan or Blake Griffin to get Lebron. Not to mention the fact that Chris Paul has shaky health and is redundant since Lebron likes to handle the ball. Had they been able to keep CP3, Blake, and Jordan while adding Lebron that would have been a sick team on par with Howard, Lebron, Parsons, Harden. Miami is the worst for him imo. The big 3 is really a big 1 and they have no center, no bench, a garbage coach, and a cheap owner. Even Cleveland with Lebron would be better going foward than Miami with Lebron, but Cleveland is also a bad choie.
the lowe pod cast I am listening to - great stuff one thing I did not know - LeBron never has been the highest paid player on his TEAM - he is tied with Bosh right now but never been the outright highest paid player on his team. thats crazy if you think about it
