And for some good news. China may become the first foreign nation to invest in the newly formed Republic of Crimea. The world got over Iraq and Georgia; I can't see there being anything but business as usual with Ukraine.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ent-nature-of-the-crimean-referendum-results/ http://www.president-sovet.ru/struc...olitike/materialy/problemy_zhiteley_kryma.php Well that was interesting, Forbes is reporting that Russia has posted (on its own Russian website) that in reality, about 15 to 30% of eligible voters in Crimea actually voted to join Russia (out of 30-50% turnout). Somehow I doubt this admission will make Russia give Crimea back...
Any updates on this? Cliffs would be appreciated. Hear lots of talk about fake elections but have list track of it over past month
Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working Russian President Vladimir Putin has over-reached in Ukraine, creating problems for himself so bad that they may force him down as or more effectively than plausible American actions alone might have (although they helped). Putin is hanging himself by his own rope. This has been so effective, and has apparently taken Putin by such surprise, that after weeks of looking like he could roll into eastern Ukraine unchallenged, he's backing down all on his own. -------------------- Still, in eastern Ukraine, there is pretty strong evidence that the system [sanctions] worked. Russia pushed too far, the US and Europe pushed back with sanctions not tough enough to hurt Russia on their own but tough enough to freak out global investors, and Putin was chastened by the economic damage that he mostly did to himself. The global economic integration that was supposed to prevent war actually did.
i thought this was enlightening, although he leaves out Putin's Crimea Putsch. -- Stop forcing Ukraine into a narrative of Moscow versus Washington We are told that this is a geopolitical battle instead of an attempt by ordinary Ukrainians to take back control from the oligarchs Anyone who tells you Ukraine is a battle between Russia and the west is wrong. It is a lazy narrative told by ignorant people, but is helping create a genuine tragedy that we should all be concerned about. The history of Ukraine's crisis began not in February, with Viktor Yanukovych's flight, but in 1991, with independence. Desperate to break communism, privatisers sold state assets as quickly as they could. They didn't care who got them; they just wanted private property to exist. They thought the new owners would insist on their rights, and thus build a stable society, governed by the rule of law. It was the west that killed that dream. By moving their wealth offshore – to Austria, the Caribbean or the various UK-owned tax havens – Ukraine's property owners could enjoy western property rights, while benefiting from chaos at home. That turned the privatisers' calculations on their head. Insiders snatched Ukraine's industries, with particularly powerful business clans in the cities of Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk. They fought for control of the government in Kiev, but all had the same basic interest: to perpetuate chaos. The longer Ukraine was a mess, the richer they got. This was not Russia against the west; everyone piled in. Just look at the needless intermediary company created by Dmitry Firtash in 2004 to buy gas from Russia and sell it to Ukraine, making more than $600m a year. RosUkrEnergo was a west-east joint venture: half owned by Russia's Gazprom, half owned via an Austrian bank. Every dollar it earned was a dollar less for ordinary Ukrainians. Some would have you believe that Yanukovych was a democratic, pro-Russian president driven out by western spies – yet he held his palaces and hunting estate via British shell companies, and his son's assets were owned through the Netherlands and Switzerland. Ukraine was a modern Prometheus, chained to the ground, while vultures of all geopolitical persuasions companionably pecked at its liver. The corruption was obscene. Ukraine has Europe's second-highest HIV rate, with 230,000 Ukrainians infected with the virus, yet in 2012 and 2013 more than a fifth of the budget for anti-retrovirals was embezzled through rigged auctions. Anti-corruption campaigners estimate 30% of the annual procurement budget was stolen: that's $15bn a year, the same amount Ukraine is now begging from the IMF. In the three years of Yanukovych's rule, his son became Ukraine's second richest man. And Yanukovych jailed Yulia Tymoshenko, a political rival who had run against him as president, to show how tough he was. In the parallel reality of some commentators, she was pro-western and Yanukovych was pro-Russian. In fact she is from Dnepropetrovsk, and he is from Donetsk, and they are both pro-themselves. Ukraine's real political split has always been between different industrial clans, whose placemen dominate parliament. Now Yanukovych has fled, Donetsk has lost power and, by default, Dnepropetrovsk has taken over. Ukrainians did not revolt to swap one business clan for another, however, so they insist on immediate elections. (Tymoshenko is polling in the single figures.) The protesters are still on the Maidan in central Kiev because this isn't their first revolution. Back in 2004-5 they ousted Yanukovych and elected a president who appointed Tymoshenko to head his government. They trusted her to make things better and went home, but corruption continued. This time they're keeping the pressure on. Whisper it, but it's working. A new procurement law scraped through the corrupt old parliament and removes the loopholes that allowed the annual $15bn to be stolen. Punishments for corruption are tougher, registers on property are better, checks on officials' expenditure are tighter. This is what the revolution is about: Ukrainians trying to wrest control of their country from the oligarchs of Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk and elsewhere who – with help from east and west – have robbed them for 23 years. The left should be cheering them on. The east against west story does have one beneficiary: the Kremlin. In Ukraine Moscow is trying to preserve a crooked regime against the wishes of Ukrainians who want to live with dignity, because the old ways made it money. It also fears a united and stable Ukraine would join Nato. That's why Russia is sheltering Yanukovych, and threatening not to recognise the elections on 25 May. Russia is deploying its propaganda apparatus to present this as an ideological struggle rather than a mercenary one. RT, the channel formerly known as Russia Today, addresses the outside world, while state television channels bombard Russian-speakers with denunciations of the "fascists" in Kiev. Journalists who grew up in a world when Moscow and the west were equal adversaries feel comfortable in this narrative. It's far easier to sell Ukraine if it's Czechoslovakia 1968, rather than a messy failed state, a European Congo. With media on all sides forcing Ukraine into a west v east narrative, Ukrainians keep hearing that this battle is geopolitical and inter-ethnic, rather than an attempt by ordinary people to take control of their destinies. There is enough truth in the caricature – west Ukrainians do speak Ukrainian, east Ukrainians do speak Russian – that Ukrainians have started believing it, and started fighting about it. And people got killed. And the propaganda is turning into the truth. Journalists have a responsibility at a time like this. They should learn what's really happening before making sweeping conclusions. They should remember this is about ordinary Ukrainians, not about Moscow or Washington. And they should be aware that their lazy judgments are tomorrow's incendiary propaganda. http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-narrative-moscow-versus-washington-oligarchs
An excellent post, basso. Took a chance and read it, because I'm very interested in events taking place in Ukraine, and it wasn't the usual slam against Obama/Democrats/"Liberal Running Dogs" you usually post down here. Color me surprised! The column was a very good take on what's happening there, in my opinion. One doesn't know what Putin will do next, but that's entails what Moscow is doing, not Ukraine and the forces at play within the country. As per usual, what Putin and his minions spout, and what is reality, doesn't jive at all. The Western media, to a degree, haven't helped to create a clear picture either, or as clear a picture as is possible considering just how convoluted the situation is there, with the coverage being very hit and miss.
I think Putin is entirely predictable. He reacted to being caught off guard and powerless in Ukraine by exercising all the power moves he had in his bag to reassert his image of strength. He pushed his brinkmanship up to the line of no return but no farther. He used the situation to raise the noise of nationalism to his advantage domestically. He is countering the loss of political and economic ties with Europe by allying more China, selling them his gas and supporting their mutual global interest. He is playing the game of power and politics the same way despots have played it it for centuries with the one exception that the threat of a real shooting Major Country war is off the table replaced by proxy nuisances. Russia, China gas deal: The price is wrong. For now. http://www.csmonitor.com/Environmen...ia-China-gas-deal-The-price-is-wrong.-For-now
While things are going to crap in Iraq meanwhile in Ukraine. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/uk...0-servicemen-killed-rebels-down-plane-n131121 Ukraine: Almost 50 Servicemen Killed as Rebels Down Plane Pro-Russian separatists shot down a military transport plane Saturday in the country's restive east, killing all 49 service personnel on board, Ukrainian officials said. It was a bitter setback for Ukrainian forces, which have struggled to suppress an armed insurgency by foes of the new government. Sign up for breaking news alerts from NBC News Nine crew and 40 troops were aboard the Il-76 when it went down early Saturday as it approached the airport at the city of Luhansk, the Ukrainian prosecutor general's office said in a statement. That exceeded the loss of 12 soldiers including a general on May 29 when rebels shot down a troop helicopter near the eastern city of Slovyansk. The incident underlines questions about rebel access to military gear. Ukraine has accused Russia of permitting three tanks to cross the border where they were used by rebels. Russia denies supplying the separatists. Denis Pushilin, a leader of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, told Russian state television Friday that rebels had the tanks but it was "improper to ask" where they got them. The defense ministry's statement said that the rebels "cynically and treacherously" downed the plane using anti-aircraft guns and heavy machine guns. It expressed sympathy to the families of those killed "for their tragic and irreparable loss." Alexei Toporov, defense spokesman for the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, said the aircraft was shot down after what he termed Ukrainian "occupiers" refused an ultimatum to abandon the Luhansk airport. Luhansk is in Ukraine's east near the border with Russia, an area that has seen separatists seize government buildings and declare independence after holding disputed referendums. Ukraine had claimed a success on Friday when troops retook some rebel-occupied buildings in the port city of Mariupol. No deaths were reported. Before Saturday's incident, the Ukrainian health ministry had said at least 270 people had died in clashes between government forces and armed separatists. — The Associated Press
I had an idea for a peace plan for Ukraine today: The Ukraine should do a appraisal for the value of Crimea and send Russia a bill, That way Ukraine's debt for Russian gas gets canceled out. $4.5 billion sounds about right for Crimea. win/win Russia cuts off gas to Ukraine as Kiev orders border secured http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/16/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0ER16X20140616
At first glance, the idea seems nuts, but I think you actually have something there. Ukraine has to know they aren't getting that place back. That NATO, etc., aren't coming to their rescue, not for the Crimea. Putin is busy attempting to blackmail Ukraine once again (he's done this gas blackmail thingy in the past on different occasions), so why not come out and offer the deal? Have the new leader of Ukraine go before the United Nations General Assembly, denounce Russian aggression, denounce Russian blackmail, denounce Russia's interference in their internal affairs, denounce the theft of the Crimea, and then shift into a conciliatory mode. Say that Ukraine is willing to sign a treaty giving Russia the Crimea if all debts are written off, and a long term gas deal at a reasonable price is signed, with these treaties consigned by the European Union as observers. International sanctions on Russia and Putin's buddies, soon to increase, could end. Worth a try. Probably makes too much sense to happen.
When's the last time the loser of a conflict send a bill to the victor for the cost of the land lost? Isn't it usually the other way around? The victor not only steals/takes the land but also demands the loser pay reparations. Talk about kicking someone when they are down. The $377ish per cubic thousand meters price that Russia is billing Ukraine now is actually a fair market price, it's basically what the Europeans are paying to Russia now and what China will pay to Russia in a few years when the major gas deal kicks in. Another problem with Ukraine is that they are one of the least energy efficient countries in the world, hopefully being forced to finally pay market prices for gas Ukraine will start to improve its efficiency.
Victor? was this a war? It just looks like a case of theft to me. So what's the value of Crimea? 10,000 sq. mi. = 6,400,000 acres the swap would be like $100 an acre ...cheap but it doesn't have water or electricity.
You guys are geniuses! The President should look out, Mexico is going to send us a bill for Texas soon! Surely we'll have no choice but to pay!
I'm with Deckard. Selling Crimea to Russia actually might work and there is precedent in Russian history when Russia sold Alaska to the US.
