For the month of May among AL teams, the Astros are 1st in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, and 2nd in ERA. Keuchel is pitching like an Aces, but will probably see a little regression. McHugh has been great for the most part, but not quite as consistent or track record of Keuchel. If he doesn't regress a lot, he will be a rotation fixture. He has a good curveball. Oberholtzer and Peacock have been very good for most of May. Oberholzer has been doing a better job lately regarding HRs. Peacock has reduced his BB%. These guys have a decent shot at sticking in a MLB rotation for a while. They have easily been within the top 120 starters in baseball this season. Feldman has been keeping his ERA down for most part, but his peripheral stats have been worrisome. His velocity and K% has been improving, though lately so I basically expect he will give his normal performance. Cosart..when he strikes guys out, he gives up a lot of homers. When he lets batters hit the ball, he has gotten better results. He does not have good control of his pitches. For a guy with as good velocity as he does, batters hit him better than one would expect. His cutter does generally induce weak contact, but he learned in April he can't just throw cutters all day. I don't have much confidence in guys like Cosart that can't get some strikeouts and load up the bases with walks. I expect he'll be a guy that has a lower ERA than his FIP and xFIP as he does get a lot of weak contact. His problem is that he gives up so much contact, that just by sheer volume he can give up a lot of homers. With his control problems, guys tend to be on base for those. Still a top 120 pitcher in MLB this season. Having a good May in terms of ERA and FIP, but he hasn't given up a HR. That said, the Astros have 6 guys that deserve to be in a MLB rotation that are currently in the 6 man rotation. Granted, only McHugh and Keuchel are really pitching great for the most part. Foltynewicz will most likely have to wait as guys regress.
Cosart was meant for relieving duty. That way he can juice the ball up in the high 90's and work off his cutter as well. The SP has been ridiculous lately. It seems like everyone has been tossing in a typical 7IP 2ER 2BB 7-9K stat line. I don't think it is sustainable obviously, but if you can get ahead of hitters and limit walks, there will be success.
It's still funny to me how people predict a regression from Cosart, getting close to a calendar year of reading that...and he just continues to get the job done I don't know much about all those fancy stats people quote all the time, but some folks just get people out He has had ONE really bad start
It is funny considering he had a sub 2.00 ERA last year using non-fancy stats and has only had 3 sub 2 ERA stats this year. His ERA is double what it was last season. That is called regression. Fancy stat people were right. He is mixing it up a little more in May (i.e. not throwing his cutter 2 out of every 3 pitches) and is seeing better results. What stat people can't predict is what happens when a guy makes a major change, but luckily for most stat guys....by the time a guy gets to the majors, most pitchers have figured out what pitches work best for them even if the need tweaking in frequency.
Ok you are certainly right, he has had a major regression from last years sub 2 era, which if he never regressed from would make him one of the top 5 of all time. I'll take a guy who has made 11 starts and 9 of them 3 runs or less But that's just me
And I would call that cherry picking stats. 4 starts out of 11 and he can't even make it to 6 innings. He has 5 straight games without giving up a HR. As with the sub 2 ERA, he will be the greatest pitcher of all time if he never gives up another HR. That is not sustainable. He gives runs up in bunches because guys are on base when he gives up HRs (i.e. he is going to have really bad games if he can't keep runners off the bases). He is working on throwing more pitches lately. He still looks like BoR starter material to me unless he can find away to give up less contact. I hope he over performs his peripheral stats by a lot (I do expect he will outpreform his peripheral stats by some as his cutter induces weak contact).
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-brief-woba-allowed-leaderboard/ So, you don’t want to say that Colin McHugh’s curveball is the second best pitch in baseball. It’s not. But it’s been a pretty fantastic out-pitch so far this year. Top 5 in low wOBA allowed Pitcher......................Pitch...........wOBA Julio Teheran..............Change-Up...0.059 Collin McHugh.............Curveball......0.093 Julio Teheran.............. Curveball.....0.099 Chris Sale..................Slider...........0.100 Gio Gonzalez...............Curveball......0.123
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/baseballs-biggest-over-and-underachievers-by-position/ Astros Rotation, +3.4 WAR This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Before the year, the Astros were projected to have the worst rotation in baseball, which made sense, given that the Astros were assumed to be one of the worst teams in baseball. By this point, the projections figured the Astros would have about 2.0 starting-pitcher WAR. In truth, they’re at 5.4 as a team, and Scott Feldman hasn’t even been particularly good. This is mostly about the emergence of Dallas Keuchel. Collin McHugh, also, has been an enormous surprise, and Jarred Cosart is pitching more competently than you might’ve thought. The Astros’ staff right now ranks in baseball’s upper-third, and this is why the Astros’ rebuild might be a little ahead of schedule. I think this article was edited as I thought they had Oberholtzer instead of Cosart in the article last night. Oberholtzer has been decent with the Astros, but WAR overrates him (he's given up very few homers this year) for what he has done in the majors. I am surprised he is pitching poorly in AAA.
It really is remarkable that we were all waiting for a pitching resurgence when all the young guys get here: Folty, Appel, McCullers, etc Then it turns out our pitching resurgence is lead by two guys we never would have expected and there almost doesn't seem to be room no the team for those guys above. Bizarre how quickly it has turned around for the team. I hope it is real.
Keuchel and McHugh are the only real big positive surprises, but they are absolutely huge surprises. No one expected that ESPN would be projecting Keuchel as the starter for the AL in the all star game. The Mets didn't even project McHugh as an MLB starter. I am thinking Keuchel is either a No. 1 or No. 2 starter from here on out. McHugh looks great, but I still worry about his consistency. He has ace potential based on his curveball. Feldman has been pitching worse than expected. Most projections using fancy stats for Peacock and Cosart have been very accurate for the season. Cosart has been interesting the last couple of starts. He has been getting hit harder (which he normally does a good job of avoiding), but has been getting K's. If Cosart can get the groundballs and get K's, he could get a jump in production close to that of Keuchel. I doubt he will get to the point of limiting walks like Keuchel.
Feldman is exactly what he has been for his entire career, I don't know how his numbers couldn't be expected.
Bob, I threw around an inning and a third (tossed from a high school game for throwing at a guy... the ump didn't think it was as funny as I did. Let it also be noted this was in a "for fun" league), so I know what I am talking about. I have also in the past 4 years led a pitcher in MLB The Show to a Hall of Fame Career. If you have any questions regarding pitching, please direct them my way. You can find me here: Spoiler
I'm optimistic about Cosart's future. He's got great stuff, and I think at some point (maybe not this year, but the next year or two) he's going to put it all together and be a 2/3 starter.
McHugh and Keuchel have been excellent. Cosart since his bad start in Oakland has also been spectacular. Brett Olberholtzer really has gotten the shaft IMO. He has been a much better pitcher than Peacock and Feldman since he's been in the show. 2 bad starts got him demoted, despite the fact that he has been spectacular in the other 17. Peacock has the "stuff" and Feldman has the big contract, but on merit Obie should be in the rotation.
Weren't they going with a 6 man rotation earlier in the year? They should have stuck with that and left Olberholtzer going. I had no idea until I read your post that he was no longer taking a turn every go around.
Feldman... you take away one start against the Angels and he has a sub 3 ERA. Not too sure why there is so much distaste for the guy. He has been the victim of a lot of error filled games that led to unearned runs. Sure, he may not be a jewel, but a pitcher with a sub 4 ERA doing what is expected of him is far from a waste of a rotation spot.
