I think, after this game, I'm going to just bite the bullet and buy tickets to go watch Keuchel in his next home game. Because obviously I'm not going to see it on TV and it's killing me that I can't see what this guy has become.
It really can't be overstated what a huge development Keuchel somehow suddenly becoming an apparent #2 (minimum) starter is for this team. It's gonna be a really damn interesting offseason. This team really doesn't need a whole lot more, assuming Correa becomes what he should. It would also be big if Crain is back to form if/when he gets back, and if he takes a hometown discount to stick around past this season.
Missed to game, thought i read it was an off day and game was tomorrow. BUT. Glad they pulled out another W. Can't wait to see them in person again tomorrow.
Kazmir could throw 20 straight perfect games, and I still wouldn't believe what my eyes are seeing with him.
Small sample size alert! Carter, in his past 13 games, has put up a triple slash of .229/.357/1.100 with 6 homers and 12 RBI. Most impressive during this run is his .125 BAbip during this span. It is also worth noting he has a 13:5 K:BB ratio. Es muy bueno. He has proven to be a streaky player before, so enjoy the ride while it lasts! #KutKarter
League average is usually close to .300. With that said, some hitters will be consistently below league average, while others will be higher, due to the type of contact & speed a player typically produces.
Here is an article that probably explains it better than me if you have the time. Usually, batters are near .300 but being a faster player can keep you a tick above .300 and being slow can lead to a sub .300 BAbip. Carter had a BAbip of .319 last season which can also be attributed to him being an extreme line drive hitter (it is currently .230 this year). TLR, his BAbip should go up as the season goes on.
I think Carter's problem is he only hits fly balls... So it's either a pop up or a HR. I think this is also a problem for Carlos Correa when I look at his spray chart. I know that line drives a ground balls are much more likely to be hits so that's why Altuve is killing it.
HRs are not factored into BAbip. In essence if a player goes 10 for 20 with 10 HRs, I think is BAbip would be .000.
Advanced math time: BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF + SH) (You're supposed to do the things in parenthesis first.) Interesting that more K's will actually bring up the BABIP... there is a bit of flukiness to calculating it, and a high BABIP is not simply being totally "lucky". For instance, if George Springer goes 3/10 (no HR's) with 7K's, his BABIP would = 1.000.
I mean it makes sense that K's are subtracted. Batting average of balls in play. "Luck" is still somewhat of a factor because a hard hit ball in between the gap on the left side vs an equally hard hit ball directly at a third baseman requires the same amount of skill, but one finds leather and the other doesn't. If a player has a low BAbip and is a line drive guy, positive regression could be due and "his luck could turn".
Agreed, its still "somewhat" of a factor... but I think people associate BABIP too often with that, and there are false expectations/predictions of either regression or improvement simply because of that number. For instance, in the Springer example, going 3/10 is not really "lucky", and having 7 K's out of those 10 AB's is certainly not lucky... and yet his BABIP is 1.000 which some will expect there to be "regression" with that number going down, when in reality if he simply cuts down on his K's (a "good" thing), that number would go down without regression.
