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Has Morey found a taker(s) for Jeremy Lin? (Speculation on possible deals)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by basketballholic, Jun 5, 2014.

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  1. photojoe

    photojoe Member

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    Did you see Steve Blake towards the end of their season and the playoffs for them... Lin would be a definite upgrade over that.


    Speaking of Golden State, I also Asik would be a great fit for them there. Asik provides everything that they need from Bogut at a fraction of the cap hit plus has had much better dependability.

    It will be interesting to see what GSW does this offseason. Depending on what they do and how much cap space they generate from their moves, I could see them coveting either Lin or Asik, especially if we include some draft picks to help them replenish the ones they lost from their trade to Utah last year.
     
    #101 photojoe, Jun 6, 2014
  2. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    Up until I have felt it was possible, especially if we attached another asset, say DMo or #25, etc.


    What draft pick value do you feel Asik is worth in a trade....and why?
     
    #102 basketballholic, Jun 6, 2014
  3. Mr Chuck Norris

    Mr Chuck Norris Member

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    He's a FA? Man I love hinrich. That's the leadership our second unit needs
     
    #103 Mr Chuck Norris, Jun 6, 2014
  4. Moonscope

    Moonscope Member

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    I find it VERY hard to believe that:

    1) This leak has anything to do with getting something done before July. IF we're targeting Melo, it's in free agency using cap room or via a sign and trade.

    2) This impacts the pursuit of Love in any way. Love is not a free agent this off-season and as such having max cap room available in no way puts pressure on Minnesota to work with us on a trade, so why does it matter if we can trade Asik and Lin? Minnesota will review all trade options (most likely before or at the draft) and choose what suits them the most. If I had to guess, Boston/Chicago are front runners with Golden State and Houston in 3rd and 4th respectively.

    The most likely reason for this leak is to put the potential free agents on notice:
    - "Don't forget to consider Houston when considering free agency, we can have max cap room."
    - "Come play with a 24 year old superstar, 29 year old superstar and another great player in Parsons, because we will be locking him up long term"

    It gives the Lebrons, Boshs, Melos and Dirks time to think about their future and what could be in Houston, not just all of a sudden hear from Houston in July and not have time enough to consider them as an option.

    If I were a betting man I'd say that Morey has already heard through his own superstars and their relationships with one or more of their off-season targets that they are VERY interested, almost towards a done deal. Is there a small chance that Morey makes Parsons a restricted free agent then doesn't land the player he wants and ends up resigning Parsons without remaking the team? Yes, but it's a risk he's willing to take at this stage.

    FA Targets:
    1. Lebron
    2. Bosh
    3. Melo
    4. Dirk
    5. Lowry (or Livingston) / Milsap (via trade)

    I think he has trades for Asik and Lin lined up ready to go once he gets one of his target FA players.
    Bang - Trade Asik
    Bang - Trade Lin
    Bang - Sign FA
    Bang - Resign Parsons
    Bang - Use MLE/BAE/vet min to round out team.

    So in summary, unless we get REALLY lucky and are able to get Love before or on draft day, it's ALL happening after July 1.

    What do I want to happen?
    Well, Lebron would be magic, but Bosh fits our need PERFECTLY. Stretch 4 that can play backup 5, good defensively with championship experience. All the other options out there have question marks. Does Melo want to play the 4 and bang with the likes of Zach Randolph and Blake Griffin? How long left does Dirk have? Will Lowry be effective along side Harden and can he work with McHale again?

    What do I expect to happen?
    Draft at #25 (hopefully a big like Walter Tavares)
    Trades Lined up:
    - Asik to Boston for a future pick
    - Lin to Utah with a future pick

    Melo convinced to come, sign and trade worked out with Knicks - Lin/Asik + 1 first round pick + 1 second round pick

    Lineup:
    Beverley/Canaan
    Harden/Daniels
    Parsons/Covington
    Melo/Jones
    Howard/D-Mo

    Round out roster with MLE/BAE/Vet min
    Possible for MLE: Livingston (great PG backup!), Spencer Hawes, PJ Tucker

    Possible for BAE: Danny Granger, Evan Turner, Rashard Lewis, Ramon Sessions, Kirk Hinrich,

    Possible for Vet Min: Okafor, Jermaine O'Neal, Oden, Stiemsma
     
    #104 Moonscope, Jun 6, 2014
  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Bold prediction:

    To most people's surprise, Jeremy Lin will still be a Rocket when next season opens.


    Not that I know for sure, but just think that, logically, this has a decent chance of happening because:

    1. Lin's balloon payment contract will likely cost Houston an asset to trade away for no salary in return.

    2. There is no reason to give away an asset to get rid of salary unless the salary relief gives you the ability to do something that you could not otherwise do.

    3. If Houston doesn't actually land get a big money free agent to agree to do a regular signing into cap space to be created, there wouldn't be a reason to get rid of Lin's salary at a cost in order to create that cap space.

    4. Houston would likely prefer acquiring its additional star via trade while staying above the cap anyway because this allows them to keep the full MLE and BAE. The "cap room" route is preferably a threat to be used to get a FA's team to do a sign and trade of some sort.

    4. If Houston lands a free agent or disgruntled star under contract (like Love) via sign-and-trade or regular trade, whether Lin's contract needs to be put into the deal depends on the salary of the incoming player and how the deal is structured. For a player making Love's salary level, for example, Asik+some small contracts would suffice salary-wise to make the math work.

    Again, if Lin's balloon payment deal carries negative value, if you don't have to give up value to have some team take him as a part of a trade, maybe you should just keep the contract and the value you'd pay to trade it.

    5. If HOU is still going to try to trade for a big $ guy during the season, having some large expiring deals would likely be useful. Those ballon deals are not the most desirable expirings, but they work for $ matching.
     
    #105 Carl Herrera, Jun 6, 2014
  6. Aleron

    Aleron Member

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    They don't need 90%, they can just prorate the team salaries, and beyond that they can wait til the deadline (like Granger), that way they hit the cap mark, but don't pay most of the salary. They don't need to spend anything unnecessarily in July.
     
    #106 Aleron, Jun 6, 2014
  7. Rockets_12

    Rockets_12 Member

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    I'd love Kirk on this team, but I heard he wants to stay in Chicago.
     
    #107 Rockets_12, Jun 6, 2014
  8. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    That's true. But they may decide they won't get a better deal with more asset value and they may realize they can flip Lin at the deadline for another asset.

    However, as far as the 90% payout, here's the verbage from cbafaq.com.

    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q15


    So make no mistake about it. The teams have to actually PAY OUT 90% of the salary cap. The ONLY thing that they can do to lower that figure is to accept the maximum cash allowance in a trade thereby netting them an extra $3.3 million for 2014-15.
     
    #108 basketballholic, Jun 6, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2014
  9. tkrieger

    tkrieger Member

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    I think "Moreyball" hindered Lin more than McHale....

    I just think in a normal offense, Lin will be OK.... I just hope some of the posters here don't crash and burn if Lin excels with his subsequent team.

    As far as I'm concerned, I'd rather find out that Lin was a flash in the pan after playing for a new team than see him shackled here for another season.
     
    #109 tkrieger, Jun 6, 2014
  10. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    I have no question at all that if Lin is made the lead guard and is surrounded by a couple very good players and 3&D defenders that he will drive that team into the playoffs. And he'll look very good in the process.
     
    #110 basketballholic, Jun 6, 2014
  11. ooooaaaah!

    ooooaaaah! Member

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    dobro1229 way too defensive, I'm with basketballholic..he was just being passionate.
     
    #111 ooooaaaah!, Jun 6, 2014
  12. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    If Morey is faking that there is a trade market for Lin then he very well could be with us come November 1. But if that is the case, you can be assured Morey will have also exercised Parsons' player option as well.
     
    #112 basketballholic, Jun 6, 2014
  13. T.Mcgrady

    T.Mcgrady Member

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    Lebron/Melo - there's no chance in hell they choose H-Town.

    Of the rest, if we somehow acquired Dirk literally every offensive issue we have would be solved.... for approximately 2 years. He just had his best and healthiest season in years.

    There's no way Dallas lets him walk. They pushed SA to 7 with Dirk + scrubs.
     
    #113 T.Mcgrady, Jun 6, 2014
  14. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    I agree with all that. But that's the order of preference mostly. Morey is going to see if Lebron wants to come for sure.
     
    #114 basketballholic, Jun 6, 2014
  15. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Lin to Sacramento makes sense since it places him close to home and he would get to start alongside Gay ($19.3M), Love ($15.7M), Cousins ($13.7M). Based on salary, those three guys are already fat rats so won't resent Lin's $15 balloon payment. But I still have a couple questions.
    A. Your proposed trade package between Sacramento and Minnesota includes Ben McLemore and Jason Terry. That trade result in the following lineup for the Kings: Cousins at center, Love at PF, Gay at SF, and Lin at PG. With McLemore and Terry gone, what will the Kings (with designs on the playoffs) do about a SG that can hold his own against the elite SGs in the WC?
    B. You also mentioned that Derrick Williams could, if need be, traded back to Minny, or, traded here and shipped out with Asik in another trade. Then you added... "A deal for Asik and Derrick Williams is less salary for a team to swallow to get Asik and his birds rights." I'm not following the logic. Why would a GM pay $15M to Asik next season and $6.7M to Derrick Williams if all they're after is Asik? Do they have to take Williams?
    C. I know his contract is expiring but is it possible that if/once Derrick Williams ends up here he becomes stuck here for the entire season? I checked his 2013-2014 stats. He's a solid nba bench player but won't help us win a championship; not averaging 8PPG on 42.7 FG%, 4RPG, 0.3BlksPG and a DRPM of -0.68.
     
    #115 fluors, Jun 7, 2014
  16. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    Hey, those are good questions. Thanks for reading the lengthy analysis. I apologize for it being so long but I had to shorten it to keep it from being longer and I wanted to try to be as thorough as possible in explaining the possibilities.

    I see you understand the logic behind Sacramento as a destiny for Lin.

    A. So, legit question about what would they do for a SG. Here's some options.

    1. MLE. They've got over $5 million to give a player in free agency. What they would need most in a SG is a great defender/good spot-up shooter (3&D baby).

    So, look at the free agent market. Could they steal Bazemore from the Lakers? Jodie Meeks? Alan Anderson? Cisco Garcia?

    2. Possible trade: Minnesota throws in Kevin Martin along with Love. Don't know if Minnesota would do that but...Sacramento has enough expiring and non-guaranteed salaries to take on Martin/Lin/Love as long as they do the trades simultaneously. Not going to bother to post the trades but I did check. There's enough salary for Sacramento to take on Martin (or Budinger) if Minnesota wants to dump him. And both Martin and Bud have Cali roots.

    3. Possible sign-and-trade involving Lance Stephenson with some of the expirings going back to Indy or perhaps Martin or Chase Budinger going to Indy to replace Stephenson for them.

    4. Broadening the trade to include Orlando and Afflalo going to Sacramento. Sac signs-and-trades Thomas to Orlando, Rockets send another asset to Orlando and Afflalo goes to Sacramento. (This would be the ideal fit at SG for Sactown I think. Lin/Afflalo/Gay/DeMarcus/Love That's a very, very nice team.)


    B. No, a team does not have to take back Williams. My point is Williams would be easier to move out for nothing than Lin would be. So if we could trade Lin for Willaims then we've made it easier to clear cap. So, for instance a team that wants Asik but doesn't want to give up a good pick for him may be willing to take a flyer on Williams for a season in order to get Asik. Or...there may be a team far enough under the cap (Utah, Philly, etc.) that will take Williams in just to have the salary and a trade piece at the deadline. The point is he's easier to move out than Lin. He could possibly be moved out with Asik much easier than Lin with Asik and he could possibly be traded by himself for nothing much easier than finding a taker for Lin for nothing. And if we have to send out an asset for a team to take Williams it will be much less of an asset we have to send out than what we would have to send out for a team to take Lin.

    C. Yes, he could become stuck here for a season. I think Morey would trade Lin for Williams without having a place to send him because Morey knows he'd be easier to move. And even if the opportunity did not come up to move Williams and he was stuck here, chances are he'd probably get into the rotation because of his ability to shoot and spread the floor and our current lack of a shooter at the 4.



    However....here's the magic of Asik and Williams. That's a total of $21 million in actual salary with only $15 million showing on the book for luxury tax purposes. And that's 2 nice player for the Knicks if Melo is threatening to walk on them. Better than Melo walking for nothing.
     
    #116 basketballholic, Jun 7, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2014
  17. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    Now....just to reiterate..........

    I personally believe that the right trade for Minnesota to make for Love is the trade that gives them the proper balance of

    1. Enough cap space going into the summer (at least $10 million or so) to sign Pau

    plus

    2. Some combination of draft picks/youngsters/expiring contracts

    plus

    3. The ability to help Minnesota clear cap space for 2015 to have max cap room to chase Marc Gasol to fit alongside Pau.


    I personally think that whatever team comes up with the most effective combination of the above 3 things will get Kevin Love in trade.


    With that in mind I believe this is the most attractive deal that Morey can present to Minnesota:

    Love, Martin, Mbah A Moute, Shved to Houston

    Lin, #25, Omer Asik (or the pick we can trade Asik for on draft day), plus 2 future first rounders, plus 3 future draft pick swap rights, plus one of DMo/Jones to Minnesota.

    This trade gives Minnesota all 3 things I listed above:

    1. Cap space to sign Pau to a contract starting at around $10 million.

    2. some draft picks and young talent

    3. enough cap space for 2015 to sign Marc Gasol outright.


    Soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo,

    while all this noise is going on with Sacramento talking to Minnesota and trying to get a deal done for Love involving #8 and McLemore and expirings.......Sacramento CAN'T do all that and give Minnesota space to sign Pau. They CAN take back Martin and Budinger though but not if they take Lin.

    Soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, all Morey has to do is put his foot down on taking back salary. Then make his own approach to Minnesota.

    We can give Minnesota all 3 things I listed above, straight up 2-team trade....as long as they will take back Lin and as long as we can secure a pick in the range of #9 to #11 in this draft for Asik or a future pick that is pigeon-holed in like the Lowry pick between #10 and #14 or so. That is basically the same thing as Sacremento's #8 pick. And McLemore?????? We're basically giving Minny the opportunity to get Pau and Marc instead of McLemore. I'm sorry....but if I were an NBA GM I wouldn't even view McLemore as worth much more than a pick around #20 in this current draft. He did not break out his rookie year. He's frail for the NBA. And he's not nearly aggressive enough to be a difference maker. I seriously doubt if McLemore has as good a career as J.R. Redick at this point. Not trying to downplay McLemore. But I do not view him as a valuable franchise building cornerstone type player at all. Sacramento cannot generate a trade giving Minnesota the 3 elements I listed WITHOUT engaging multiple teams. And that's where it gets real complicated. Especially when time is compressed down to a few hours on draft night, etc.


    So ultimately I really believe Morey has a definite leg up on Sacramento's deal because of our ability to give Minny the 3 things I described above. And I believe that whichever team gives Minnesota the best combination of what I described above will get Love. So, Lin to Minnesota ...... is a distinct possibility. And Lin will turn into a trade-able asset for Minny (or whatever team he is on) at the deadline.
     
    #117 basketballholic, Jun 7, 2014
  18. Codman

    Codman Member

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    The OP values JLin a bit more than the rest of the league....
     
    #118 Codman, Jun 7, 2014
  19. J Hard

    J Hard Member

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    In the interest of fairness, we've always owned the warriors.
     
    #119 J Hard, Jun 7, 2014
  20. Chamillionaire

    Chamillionaire Member

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    A little. It's down right wrong. Lin has negative value at this point. He isn't a starting caliber PG and is being paid 15 million next year. I'm sure we'll have to to give a away something just to get rid of him, but if that's what it takes then I hope that's what Morey does.

    We keep D12, JH, CP, PB, and the 3 RGV guys. Everyone else can go. Our bench sucked and our PFs were terrible as well.

    We get Melo, Love, Bosh, Dirk, or Lebron (I doubt we get the last 3), pick up a few veterans on the cheap and we got ourselves a real chance. No more Cisco, Casspi, Lin, DMo please.
     
    #120 Chamillionaire, Jun 7, 2014
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