Astros should have about $2 million with which to overslot. I expect them to lure a few HSers from college today.
I'll happily eat my words later, but I can't say I'm thrilled about the Derek Fisher pick. Give me somebody who has proven they can perform, rather than a "potential" guy... For the same logic, I love AJ Reed. What a great pick that was. I also liked the aiken pick -- Rodon has a lot of mileage and has has consistency issues.
I love that they got both AJ Reed and Derek Fisher. It shows flexibility instead of rigidness. They will go out and get perceived value whether it is "potential" or "production".
All of these picks are made on potential. All. 2014 AA baseball would likely eat all of these 2014 draftees alive. To state the obvious, draftees need many years to develop before they will be ready for The Show, if ever. Scouts have to project (or to "dream") how each player will develop in the next 3 or 4 years. That is why amateur scouts can project Appel as a future ace and minor league scouts shake their heads when they do not see an out pitch, right at this very moment. One scout judges the future, the other scout judges the here and now.
I pretty much have zero knowledge on looking at college players as pro prospects, unless maybe the Rice players, but looking at his stats, how the hell did AJ Reed drop to the 2nd round? .700+ slugging pct and 1.200+ OPS in the SEC??
The Astros scouts disagree with "minor league scouts". On potential vs production, all prospects are judged on potential for major league success. However, there is a huge difference in judging that potential on a guy that shows production at his current level versus the potential on a guy that does not show production at his current level.
Limited to 1B. Strikes out a lot. A lot of MLB pitching prospects drafted before him. With these issues, I thought he would be in the mix at 37.
Elias said they envision Fisher as a plus-plus runner (elite) with above average pop and good defense. That's an All-Star OF, Michael Brantley and Melky Cabrera seem like good comparisons. We needed that kind of upside from the corner OF spot in our system, it's pretty weak at this point.
Might just be a college masher with a metal bat. Poor stats in Cape Cod. Strikes out a lot. Limited to 1B/DH. There's a bunch of guys who can hit in college but never translate to the pros.
Amateur scouts have to project players skills 4 years down the road. Minor league scouts are way more conservative. They scout the players for their current level and maybe for their next level. For example, minor league scouts are saying "Kemp is killing A+ and is ready for AA" versus "Kemp has the skills to be an above average MLB second baseman in three years". The Crawfish Boxes have a minor league podcast, TCB AMP. They had a recent guest, Ronit Shah of Baseball Prospectus, who has done both amateur and minor league scouting. Go here TCB AMP 22: The Draft is Coming and give a listen (it is the second podcast on the page).
College doesn't use the old metal bats anymore. They use the BBCOR bats which have really cut down college power numbers. The power is legit.
