If the Astros really have 6 guys that they are deciding between, I hope they go for the over slot money. If there is a guy that is head and shoulders ahead of everyone else, I would hope the Astros get him. I know it is stupid, but I'm hoping for a college player for the more immediate impact. I do believe getting the best players available is the best policy whether a team uses the overslot money to get a quantity of quality or pay slot money for the head and shoulders BPA 1.1.
3 years would probably be about right for Aiken I guess. I don't think a HS pitcher could make it to the bigs any sooner than that. One thing I thought of is that whoever we take could always be used as trade bait for a bat or established pitcher if the prospect is taking a little longer in the minors than we hoped. Of course I would be shocked if we were true contenders in 2016 and if we are then we might as well wait for our younger prospects to make it so we can continue to compete in 2017, 2018, 2019. I am guessing Lunhow will be the type to trade B type prospects for impact bats or pitchers but probably never A type prospects. He will be patient enough to wait for Aiken but it will kill me and many of the fans I am sure.
I tend to agree. Great hitting excites the fan base while great defense and pitching wins championships. You can manufacture a few runs in baseball with some speed and mediocre hitting; which is usually enough when an ace is on the bump. I like Aiken, especially if he's coming at a discount to allow Luhnow and Co. to get another impact player early in this draft.
Aiken wouldn't necessarily take 3 years to develop although that is probably a decent guess. Kershaw is a good comp for Aiken and he was in the big leagues at age 20.
Enough pitchers have made the jump quickly from HS to the majors that we definitely know it is possible. Of course the recent injuries to Jose Fernandez & Dylan Bundy may have teams treating these guys even more cautiously.
Clayon Kershaw- 2 years Jose Fernandez- 1.5 years Dylan Bundy- 1 year Taijuan Walker- 3 years If Aiken is as elite as scouts say he is...he should be up in 2 years.
Pitching/defense has a slight edge over offense, but not enough that a team can ignore offensive players.
I don't think its necessarily overwork that's leading to these injuries... its these guys throwing all-out every start (regardless of just a few innings, or complete games). They'd gladly sacrifice the potential increased injury risk to be able to throw 96-97 consistently, vs. low 90's (but less arm strain). And as long as the surgery is as "successful" as it is, players aren't going to hold anything back for a fear of an operation that usually still has them back and pitching as good as they were within 1-2 years.
I don't think it is from overwork either. Just seems teams get convinced that they are overworking them.
In 3 years position won't be nearly as important as how good of a player we have Draft someone that turns into a stud, that's the deal
I have a strong feeling you will be pleased then. I'm really wanting it to be Rodon but if it's Aiken, I trust our scouting and development team a lot more than I trust my instincts.
