It certainly will if some team overpays for him. And it will be more likely if we don't land a big fish the first week of July. Morey won't sacrifice cap flexibility for Parsons. He wants a superstar.
It's not really that far fetched. Here's a hypothetical (by no means am I suggesting that this is what will happen) on one way you could do a deal: - Find a team that is willing to give you a draft pick for Asik and has cap space to absorb Asik's $8.5M cap hit. For argument's sake let's say Boston is willing to trade one of the first round picks that they've stockpiled in exchange for Asik. - Find a team that has cap space to absorb Lin's salary and is willing to do so in exchange for a first round pick. Let's assume Philly. - We could then setup a deal as follows: Houston ---------- out: Asik, Lin, Jones, Rockets 2014 1st rounder, Future Rockets 1st total salary out: $18,618,680 in : Anthony (Signed and Traded for Max). total salary in: $22,120,000 NET: +3,501,320 Boston -------- out: 1st round pick in : Asik NET: +8,500,000 (they'd cover this amount with cap space). Philly ------- out: protected 2nd round pick (not likely to be transferred) in : Lin, 2014 Rocket 1st round pick NET: +8,500,000 (they'd cover this amount with cap space). NYK ----- out: Anthony (signed and traded for max) total out: $22,120,000 in: Jones , Boston 1st rounder, Future Rockets 1st total in: $1,618,680 NET: -20,501,320 (Creates a Trade Exception for this amount). So if NY really thinks Anthony is leaving is Jones plus 2 first round picks and a huge trade exception a bad deal? Houston gets their third star. Boston gets Asik for only a 1st round pick. Philly gets a free 1st round pick for using some of their cap space for one year of Lin. You certainly can tweak the deal with additional draft picks or rights to foreign players and switch out the teams that are receiving Lin and Asik. Anyway that's one example of a deal that is possible. EDIT: Under this scenario and assuming that you resigned Parsons for a starting salary of $10M, out payroll would be at $73M for 9 players (Howard, Harden, Parsons, D-Mo, Beverley, Canaan, Daniels, Covington,Anthony). The projected tax threshold for next year is $77M.
What he said was absolutely true. Signing a top FA would be extremely far-fetched. Your scenario is to S&T for a FA. The only scenarios at this point would be in a S&T this offseason for a FA like Melo or a trade before next offseason for a guy like Love who they could resign. No other scenario will work because of Parson's cap hold this offseason and his likely 8 figure salary being on the books (Lin and Asik coming off will at that point not matter near as much) from here on out.
Morey playing dirty again. Leaking info to lower Parsons' contract offers. Or else... Another team trying to sabotage Parsons' trade value so HOU cannot use him to land Love.
Excellent analysis and write up. But I would be surprised if the Rockets trade either Asik or Lin prior to getting a commitment from Melo just because of the fear that NY might stand firm and refuse all trades. If Melo says he wants to leave, NY will facilitate something, as long as it is even slightly favorable to them. Even Cleveland relented and signed and traded LeBron to Miami. If we need leverage, the threat of Chicago waiting in the wings is enough to scare NY. Or we can threaten to renounce Chandlers' $4 million cap hold and free up enough room after trading Asik/Lin somewhere else to sign him outright. Aelliot's fine post above shows it would not be that hard to give NY a good enough deal to make it worth their while to play ball. Finally, the pool of available teams that can absorb Asik or Lin's salary increases after July 1st.
yeah ok... why do the rockets insist on playing dirty like this? Howard prob has a worse back than Parsons....
wait... and how would another western conference team know about his back unless the Rockets just threw out some bogus info? This is coming from the Rockets camp and its kind of shady.. If I was Parsons.. this would bug the hell out of me. I might even be inclined to say screw Houston. reject qualifying offer...Get the highest contract possible (Fegan to do some really dirty work) and say... match it. Better yet go public and demand a trade.
So Fegan leaks that the Rockets aren't going to pickup Parsons' option, and the Rockets leak that Parsons may have a back issue...
Lots of scenarios but I tend to agree that the Rockets will not rush to actually execute salary relief deals with Lin and Asik, they will simply have those trades lined up in case they need to be executed. A preferable outcome for the Rockets, and perhaps for the free agent's current team, is to negotiate a sign and trade-- and this can be a 2 way deal or a 3+ way deal (like the one posted by aelliot) with one or both of Lin and Asik going to some team other than that of the FA's own team. This way, the Rockets get to use their MLE/BAE and the FA's current team gets something out of the trade. But Morey must line up his alternatives, his BATNA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_alternative_to_a_negotiated_agreement) in order to strengthen his negotiating position in a sign and trade.
Unless there was a wink-wink deal for Parsons at the end of all this. We tell other teams your back is shot and we sign you for big money at the end of all this.
Chandler's back problems aren't secret information. He missed games this season because of it. He had backs spasms and, IIRC, at some point it was implied the problem may be coming from his hamstrings.
Seems like a pretty obvious statement. I mean yeah, he's missed a couple games due to back injuries so I would want to do a medical exam before committing a bunch of money to him.
Exactly...it still may have been Houston who leaked it as a reminder to teams, but you've got to believe any team with it's head on straight would already be thinking about it..
