Spurs' options are a lot more than last year. Ginobili is much better than last year. Duncan and Parker are almost the same. Leonard is more mature. HCA. Last year Spurs was so unlucky not to win in G6. Even in G7 they were so close to seal it. They are true representative for team play. Fans are impressed by what they did as a whole team from coaches to bench players.
I think most ESPN experts take into account the HCA that Spurs have, the better regular season record and the bench is clearly superior to the Heat. Also Spurs had to knock out opponents from the West i.e. Dallas, Blazers and Thunder to get to the finals as oppose to Bobcats, Brooklyn and Pacers. Also I think they feel the Heat is not a better team to last year while the Spurs have improved. I don't think most experts have the Spurs sweeping them, i think most generally feel it will be close but the Spurs winning it in 7. But who cares what the experts think, they generally just look at what has happened recently in the past...anything can happen in the finals...perhaps Heat will be more consistently play in their top gear (which they have not really shown as much during the playoffs)
the Heat's defense has been fine, it hasn't been super impressive but honestly did it even have to be? They have not been threatened at all. The deadly thing about their defense is the ability to create turnovers and then use Wade/LBJ to turn them into fast breaks. If Parker isn't full strength and they have ballhandling difficulties the Spurs could be in trouble.
I think the Thunder have been a great warm up act for the Spurs. The Spurs will just be more ready for Game 1 IMO just because of the level of competition they've faced. Miami had the 5th best defensive efficiency in the East. Spurs had the best defensive efficiency in the West. It is something worth looking at IMO. The Spurs just have been more impressive and the Heat's defense has been relatively mediocre all year. Just something worth noting. Despite playing a much easier schedule in the playoffs, the Heat's point differential is 1.5 points worse than the Spurs. That offense has been off the charts though. Two best offensive teams in the league.
I understand the logic of people who are favoring SA, but I'm still surprised by the sheer number. Miami got to scrimmage with d-league teams the entire season. They're a brand new car that's been full-serviced going out against a rally car that just finished an endurance race. The Parker injury will be a big factor as well. A lot of things have to go right for San Antonio to pull this off.
I think folks are heavily discounting Wade's health compared to last year. Going from a negative with you on the court to potential superstar play is a bigger swing than anything else that's changed. And are folks really expecting LeBron to shoot as poorly as he did for the first 3 games of the series?
It's a fair point, but I think most of us also look at D-Wade as yet another year older and slower, while the young wings of the spurs are a year more experienced to cover him. I don't expect what you could really call "superstar" level play from Wade for more than a game and a half of the finals. I think people more underestimate Spo versus Pop, in terms of game to game and minute to minute adjustments. To me, Pop seems like the best at setting up a system and preparing his team month to month, but on shorter time scales, he has often been out-manuevered in the playoffs.
But the Spurs wings aren't really that good at covering stud guards. That's one of the mean reasons we wanted to play them in round 2. Monta Ellis hit them up for 20 or more five times in their 7 game series. They didn't have any guard to slow down Westbrook or Jackson (Leonard is not a guard and he will be on LeBron). Who do they have to slow down Wade? Last year they basically ignored him while he was on the court. That's not going to work this year. Wade has given superstar play in 7 of his last 9 playoff games, and I'm not even counting the G6 blowout vs Indy. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01/gamelog/2014/ I think people more underestimate Spo versus Pop, in terms of game to game and minute to minute adjustments. He has only shot under 50% twice in the last 11 games. He only had 2 games above 50% in the Finals last year, both wins. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01/gamelog/2013/
Last year Diaw got his most time in the Finals in G5-7 (he played less than 12 mpg prior to that in the series). LeBron had 25, 32 and 37 points in those games. No one put the clamps on LeBron. They gave him open jumpers. He threw up bricks.
According to most, the Spurs are an amazing team and have a lot of weapons to beat Miami with. And they are favorites (which I agree only because of home court). If Miami wins, are we going to hear "they beat an aged team on the last of its legs with no real superstar"?
The Spurs choked last year. They were minutes away from winning it all. I can see them doing it again.
Heat defense is underrated because it doesn't capture how often they're able to convert TO's into breaks. To just use their regular season (or even playoff stats) at thus point in theit run is a bit misleading.
That's fair. I just personally haven't been as impressed by them. But it is fun to watch them "turnt up" like in game 6 in Indiana. I just think San Antonio is gonna be prepared for the athleticism after the series with OKC. It basically comes down to Manu for me. If he plays like he did against the Thunder, the spurs will win the series.
I think Lebron was shellshocked last year in the first 4 games with the type of D the Spurs provided. The Spurs basically gave up the J and just packed the paint and dared him (and Wade) to shoot midrange to long-range jumpers. They hesitated a ton the first 4 games, which allowed the defense to pack the paint easier, and leading to jumpers late in the shot clock. Lebron finally said eff it, I'm going to shoot them. It will be interesting if Pop will defend Lebron (and Wade) the same way. If he does, I expect Lebron to average 35+ this series.
