I curious to know the boards, more intelligent scouts analysis on a couple minor leaguers and what their projected ceiling/floor is: Domingo Santiago - AAA - RF Thomas Shirley - AA - P Brady Rodgers - AA - P Anthony Kemp - A - 2B Josh Hader - A - P appreciate any input you peeps may have
Domingo and Hader could be impact players at the MLB level. The others have question marks. You have to like what Shirley's done this year, though.
Santana's realistic ceiling is probably Jay Bruce, while his floor is that he can't make enough contact and becomes what Dan Uggla is now(except in RF instead of 2B). Kemp is a LH version of Altuve. Luis Castillo is another reasonable comp if you throw height out. Hader's ceiling is high. I'd argue his absolute ceiling is Cliff Lee, but his floor is as a journeyman lefty reliever. These are my opinions based on limited watching and of my familiarity with scouting reports and stats.
Santana- Floor= Jeff Francouer Ceiling= Nelson Cruz Kemp- Floor=Kaz Matsui Ceiling= Skip Schumaker? Hader- Floor=Dallas Keuchel Ceiling= Jon lester Cant speak on the others
I hadn't seen Keuchel pitch in a while and thought his numbers were just a fluke until his last Ranger game. Ranger hitters seemed overly aggressive on pitches early in the count until I saw what happened with 2 strikes. Keuchel has a slider/slurve that is a strike out pitch. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but he could be better than Wandy...which would be a pretty high floor.
The floor for all of these prospect is MLB busts. Shirley, Rodgers and Hader at best might be BoR starters or setup men in the bullpen. Kemp at best projects to be a an everyday 2nd baseman, with above average defense and base running. Domingo Santana is still so young that it hard to make projections. He has average defense skills (especially his arm in RF) and above average power. He currently strikes out too much but one could hope he could improve at that given his age. My best guess upside projection would be between an everyday RF and an allstar RF.
Hader struck out 9 batters in 4 innings (innings 6-9) allowing 1 run on 4 hits and walking 2. Lancaster lost the game in the 10th inning
With Keuchel showing so much here early, barring disaster or injury he has earned a full season in the rotation. At this point I honestly expect him to be be here long term, I'm pretty confident he's legit. Same with Cosart, when you remove his one disastrous outing, he has pitched very well (3.14 ERA), although I'm not as sold as I am on Keuchel, he has earned a full season look as a starter. Feldman is also locked in, so that's 3 spots set, for this season anyhow. Even with attrition, there's not enough innings for our prospects. When you look at someone like Brett Olberholtzer, he carried an ERA in the mid 2's for his 1st 14 starts, and 2 bad starts effectively got him demoted. Between McHugh, Peacock, Obie, Folty, Buchanan, White, Wojo, Nitro, Appel and possibly Rodon thats a lot of arms. Folty, Appel, and Rodon won't be obstructed, but that's still 7 arms that can't possibly get an honest look. If Keuchel had been coming up now, there's no way he would make it here with 2 bad seasons (obie only got 2 bad starts) I really think it's time to start moving some of these arms, either group a few to get an mlb player or swap them for some position prospects.
I wonder if any scouts ever projected Keuchel as anything more than a MLB bullpen piece. Keuchel certainly was never a Astros top 10 prospect. Keuchel was drafted in 2009 into the worst minor league system and still did not rate. Last year, we fans were projecting him as a BoR starter. Now we are entertaining him as a MoR starter. A cautionary tale indeed.
It can work that way though, especially with leftys. Keuchel has enough velocity to succeed from the left side. Developing his slider to be an above-average offering has turned him into a strikeout threat. Pair that with a strong groundball offering & good control, and you get a good pitcher.
The bolded can't be said enough. He was a pitcher that lived off a sinker and a change up to induce ground balls. His curveball/slurve went from a below average offering to a slider/slurve that is missing bats over 20% of the time. He was an awful to below average strikeout pitcher in AA/AAA and first season in MLB and is now an above average to great in strikeouts over the last two seasons with the Astros.
A few highlights from yesterday.... - Brian Holberton went 5-5 and hit for the cycle for Quad Cities. - Josh Hader: see comment #730. - Mike Hauschild pitched 7 innings and allowed a run on 3 hits, walked 1, and struck out 8 in his 2nd start for Corpus. - Preston Tucker homered for the 3rd straight game. The solo shot gives him 9 on the year. - Mike Foltynewicz @ Nashville: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K - Teoscar Hernandez finished 2-5 with a 3-run homer (6) for Lancaster. - Jack Mayfield and Conrad Gregor both went 3-5 with an RBI and 3 runs scored for Quad Cities in their 10-3 win over Kane County.
