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Welcome to California Chrome Day

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by heypartner, May 3, 2014.

  1. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    CC has faded at the end of each race I don't think he'll have enough in the tank to win Belmont.
     
  2. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    No he hasn't. In the Derby, the jockey held him back at the end. In the Preakness social inclusion made him take off early and he destroyed social inclusion by 10 lengths. Ride on Curling still couldn't chase him down. Ride on is the one who faded. California was separating at the end

    Now. I'm with you. The Belmont will have commanding curve and wicked strong again. Commanding curve can beat him. We just don't have much footage of curve. When he loses, it's because he gets in traffic

    I'm thinking about placing two trifecta bets

    Chrome | wicked | curve
    And
    Curve | chrome | wicked
     
  3. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    That's why you look at Beyer score...because no one pushed Smarty down the stretch. He ran away with it and coasted in.
     
  4. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Smarty Jones went against the weakest field probably ever. All I'm saying is if you think his 11 1/2 length win at the Preakness was special. It wasn't.

    When 2nd place is coming in at 1:59. It's silly.

    Smarty Jones was good but not like Charismatic and Chrome, imo
     
  5. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    chrome might not even race the Belmont.

    Smarty had to be caught from behind down the stretch in the Belmont to prevent his TC.

    Smarty was a great horse...he pushed back, and had there been a horse to pursh him in the Preakness, he'd have run a faser race there.

    Charismatic is the only horse in my lifeime that I'd compare to Smarty.
     
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Secretariat hands down.

    DD
     
  7. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    Absolutely...not a close second. That was before my lifetime, though.
     
  8. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Why haven't horses gotten faster over time? Same with women's racing. In men's racing you have people breaking records every year,but with horse racing it hasn't happened. Maybe selective breeding doesn't work?
     
  9. what

    what Member

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    peds?
     
  10. Harrisment

    Harrisment Member

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    Well he sure was excited about the race.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. rezdawg

    rezdawg Member

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    That's not really fair...he gets to race with 5 legs.
     
  12. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"
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    When it comes to horses, we ultimately have to be merciful in these situations.
    So please leave MadMax and his smarty jones love *alone*.
     
  13. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    :) thank you!!!
     
  14. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Well, no one has beaten Micheal Johnson's 400 record....not even close. Just like Secretariat. His 400 might not be beaten for a long time.

    Did you ever seen Ruffian and Barbaro race? Ruffian was probably the best mare ever. Both those horses destroyed their legs in a race, painful to watch as the Jockey tries to stop them. Ruffian was euthanized in like a day. Barbaro probably should have been,

    Barbaro broke his leg in the Preakness after winning the Derby. The jockey got him to stop in about 100 yds. Ruffian shattered her leg in a match race against Foolish Pleasure, and she refused to stop running despite the jockey trying his best to reign her in. After surgery, she woke up and immediately (while still sedated) started thrashing around and broke threw her cast to shattered her leg even more...so they euthanized her on the spot.

    When you say this, note that Michael Johnson's 400 record might not get beat for decades. And note that Thoroughbreads are so fragile that they can essentially die on a racetrack, maybe with horses you will appreciate why jockeys are trained to not let them run as fastest as the horse might think it wants to run.
     
  15. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Derby winner Barbaro breaks his leg at about the 5 second point in the Preakness. Timemark about 40 seconds in this video

    So sad. Watch the slowmo recap (around the 4 minute mark) as the jockey tries his hardest to stop the horse, but it's momentum takes him for another furlong or so.

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/4QfmS7ZHyUg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
    #35 heypartner, May 24, 2014
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  16. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    In a match race against the great Foolish Pleasure...Ruffian in control then breaks her leg and the jockey can't stop her

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/fsi_ixx4pAY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
    #36 heypartner, May 24, 2014
    Last edited: May 24, 2014
  17. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Alright, here we go.

    imo, to make money on this race we have to bet a Trifecta...haha. I'm not going to do my 5-Chrome exacta bets this time. And one of my bets will be for Chrome to lose.

    imo, there is only three horses that have any shot at this. The weather is perfect again...none of the Preakness losers have a chance, imo. Tonalist is a wrong bet. People are betting him since he just won the tune-up at the Belmont, the Peter Pan Stakes. I think bettors assume that was Belmont Stakes length since it was run in Belmont, but it wasn't. It was a mere 9 furlongs, shorter than the Preakness.

    So, don't be fooled by the Peter Pan win and Tonalist's 8-1 odds. He ran that 1 second slower than Chrome ran the St. Anitas at same distance, albeit the Peter Pan was a muddy track. But not too muddy.

    The best single bet is Command Curve, imo. I surprised he's 15-1. I thought he'd actually have better odds that Wicked Strong. As you remember, Curve came from last place in the Derby to get second closing on Chrome, albeit Chrome's jockey was slowing him down at the end.

    Wicked Strong is the other horse who could beat Chrome. Wicked won the Wood Memorial from way behind in impressive closing fashion. However, he got screwed in the Derby with his 19th post position. No horses win from there. He got 4th, and looked strong, but just had too much traffic to navigate.

    So, here we go Kwame...after researching the unknown horses today, I still say only Chrome, Wicked Strong or Commanding Curve can win this race.

    Please place five $10 Trifecta bets for me:

    Trifecta #1
    Win - California Chrome
    Place - Commanding Curve
    Show - Wicked Strong

    Trifecta #2
    Win - California Chrome
    Place - Wicked Strong
    Show - Commanding Curve

    Trifecta #3
    Win - Wicked Strong
    Place - California Chrome
    Show - Commanding Curve

    Trifecta #4 (for the high odds)
    Win - Commanding Curve
    Place - California Chrome
    Show - Wicked Strong

    Trifecta #4 (for the highest odds)
    Win - Commanding Curve
    Place - Wicked Strong
    Show - California Chrome


    As for my official prediction,

    Chrome
    Wicked Strong
    Curve
     
  18. cardpire

    cardpire Member

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    ^
    why wouldnt you go ahead and bet wicked, curve, chrome trifecta to cover all your bases?
     
  19. Kam

    Kam Member

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    Chrome. Ride on curlin. Wicked strong.
     
  20. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    good point.

    I only meant to bet the first three. The only reason I'm adding the last two is because I'm surprised Commanding Curve is 15-1, so I can't miss out on those odds. I didn't think about making the final 6th bet.
     

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