Sure, ideally he should be a finished product by now... evidently he's not. I just think its short-sighted to believe that people can't adjust/improve once they reach the majors... even for things that you'd think he'd have learned in little league. It would be nice if he was making these adjustments at this level when he was 22-23 instead of 24-25, but that's neither here or there. The fact is, he probably got away with that approach enough to almost put up a 40-40 season. The club probably told him to be more selective, but stick with what he was comfortable with. Things that work (even if only a fraction of the time) at lower levels don't always translate... and there's no other levels for him to work towards. The key is if people believe he has the physical ability to "adjust"... and by all accounts, they've touted his strong hands along with quick bat-speed which is really what you need to be able to shorten up the swing with 2 strikes. Now he just has to do it consistently, or he'll have to exceed elsewhere to overcome this flaw.
Not arguing that. Concern about his ability to hit fat pitches...strikes down the plate...those are what he's missing on. Plate discipline isn't his issue..he can take a walk just fine. It's missing balls coming right down the plate that concern me. Being aggressive and swinging at balls outside of the zone is one thing...guys cool down and settle into waiting on good pitches to hit. This is a bit different than that. This is getting good pitches to hit in the zone and being unable to hit them. I'm not saying it's a forever thing....I'm not saying he won't shorten his swing ever. I am saying it seems really late in his development to be seeing a guy swing at 2-strike pitches that way still....you learn to shorten swing in high school, and it's just a mental approach. Again, he did a great job in an AB last night shortening the swing and knocking in a run that way. Hopefully we see more of that.
When has anyone said that? The only unexpected thing I've seen with Springer is his truly baffling inability to play even average defense.
He's had success with the all-or-nothing approach thus far, and that's part of the problem. If he doesn't swing for the fences on those pitches down the middle, he'll likely make more contact... but still likely make an out. Whereas, perhaps 20 or 30% of the time, he connects... and its an XBH. I'm sure there's more analytics involved, but at some point somebody probably told him that if nobody's on base or in scoring position, you're better off swinging out of your shoes at those pitches vs. just trying to make contact. In the long run, creates more potential runs by swinging away. The adjustment last night was with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs... a situation where he absolutely can't K in. Glad to see him make the adjustment, but maybe he always does that in those situations vs. his swings with nobody on base.
In an attempt to be hyper-clear....I'm not saying any of those things. I don't believe he should be a finished product...and I don't think he can't improve or adjust. That's a strawman argument.
In response to expecting him to be already able to shorten up swing with 2 strikes, and how he shouldn't be learning to do that at the MLB level. See post above... perhaps he can do it easily, just in the appropriate situations. Guys are K'ing more than ever throughout MLB... and league batting averages are at an all-time low. Not sure what spurred this movement, but GS is part of the growing trend of what hitters are being brought up to do nowadays. Reminds me of the NBA and how every team is shooting too many 3's and abandoning the mid-range game.
Make no mistake...he shouldn't be learning how to shorten his swing at the MLB level. That should have happened a long time ago. Minor league baseball isn't about compiling 40/40 seasons and stats. It's about learning how to play the game the right way. Like learning how to shorten a swing. Had guys on my high school team swung like that with 2 strikes, we'd be running laps the next day. But in no way am I saying Springer CAN'T learn it.
Again, perhaps its a situational thing. With nobody on base, analytics say he's better of swinging as hard as he can. With RISP, esp with less than 2 outs, he needs to avoid the K. Haven't seen enough of him to see if he changes his approach depending on the game situation... but if the numbers say he's more productive swinging away with nobody on base, vs. just trying to make contact and avoid the K, then you have to let that play out. You'd think part of the time they stashed him, they would have gotten "that" part of the game out of his system if it was truly detrimental... but perhaps the club has reinforced it, backed with long-term data of his RC when nobody is on base with that approach.
This is interesting - I wonder if it affects future drafting? Do teams start relying more on international players for their key pitching instead of top high school players? Japan is supposedly notorious for running their pitchers into the ground - I'd be curious if they do that when they are really young too, and what their TJ surgery rate is like. When you randomly lose 1-1.5 seasons of pitchers' careers because of the surgery, then something has to change. It's not good for the player; it's not good for the team; it's not good for the sport. Just accepting it as part of the process is silly. And just because you have it once doesn't mean you're all set for the future - you can easily have to have it again. This latest crop of young pitchers just hasn't had the chance yet. As noted in the above articles, there are specific reasons for why this is happening and ways to address it. This is generally considered to be a result of pitcher velocity increasing over the last decade, as opposed to anything in regards to hitter approach - though that could certainly be a part of it also.
Or maybe they were trying and that was the part of the hoped benefit of leaving him in the minor leagues - and it just didn't work well.
I highly doubt that. He swings at times like he wants to hit it 600ft, when he has a LF porch only 315ft away.
Certainly looks like reinforced behavior... and it didn't take much for him to "adjust" last night, so I don't think its something he's incapable of doing (shortening swing if needed).
Maybe... need to ask Luhnow. He needs more situations with guys on base to see if his 2 strike approach changes in those situations vs. when guys aren't on base. But thus far, his swing for the fences approach looks more reinforced... and it very well is possible that over the long run, he creates more runs like that than he does by simply making contact.
I doubt any hitter really swings "just enough" to hit a HR based on the distance of the LF porch. Again,its just a theory... based in part on how seemingly "easy" it was for him to shorten things up last night with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs, and take a pitch to the opposite field. Perhaps he can do a semblance of that at any time... and perhaps he'll K a whole lot less... but he'll also likely hit less HR's, or create less runs, and maybe his overall value diminishes. Gotta be a similar reason as to why Chris Carter is still in the lineup.
Of course not, but they also don't fall down because they swung so hard like Springer does. It is really hard to make contact like that, plus it has a longer load time that results in a bigger challenge in catching up to a quality FB.
You really are diminishing the advances in the surgery itself playing a role in this. Guys are likely being over-diagnosed/over-treated (whereas in the past, they'd just pitch through partial tears or just slight sprains) in part because of the success rate of the surgery, and the advancement in MRI-detection. What is the data on repeat TJ surgery on pitchers with plus/elite stuff? I haven't heard many cases of that having to happen. And yes, if losing 1-1.5 seasons is what it takes for pitchers to pitch 10+ years nowadays, throwing 95+ both before and after the procedure, then you do have to accept it as part of the process (and its an inherent built-in rest cycle for some of these over-taxed arms to recover). I agree that the "system" these guys are brought up in is part of the problem... but the "success" of the surgery has also in-part reinforced that process.
Agreed... and I'm sure he faced some quality FB's in the minors as well that he eventually caught up with by maintaing this approach. Not saying I particularly "like" it... I haven't seen any of his HR's this year live... i've seen nothing but infield hits and K's (and the hit last night). To me, Springer is like watching a youtube video of somebody's failures... makes it look like he's the worst everyday player in baseball. Again, its just a theory that unfortunately needs more than 1 month in the big leagues to be proven one way or the other.
Given that both Keith Law and BP have stated that this is a glaring weakness in his game, I'd just about guarantee it. ex. Here's BP's take on him last fall: Weaknesses: Swing-and-miss concerns; approach can get loose; two-strike approach can lack adjustment; tendency to miss in the zone; hit tool might play below-average; could limit some of the power potential. Sound familiar?
