Lost 9 games by one score or less with Matt Schaub (for 8 games) have a turnover rate nearly double his norm (and higher than anything Fitz has ever done) and Case Keenum (for the other 8 games) just largely ineffective. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a substantial upgrade over the QB production from last year. I do think people seriously underrate Schaub though. I hear people talk as though last year the rest of us FINALLY got on board with seeing Schaub for what he was, but the reality is he went from being a guy that turned the ball over at a very respectable rate (low 2s) that is in line with most superbowl winners to suddenly becoming a historically bad interception machine. Schaub is going to look good in Oakland.
My guess is... QBerry has a better chance at RT than Williams. I think, based on BOBs comments, that Williams will struggle to even make the team. Q, on the other hand, is going to get significant play time if healthy. Also, DE...Pagan and Crick will win over Jamison. One of the ILB spots will go to Bullough. Im confident in his ability.
Ask me after training camp. Without voting yet, my hunch is 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, but I want to see how the new QBs look in training camp before I commit.
I think we are going to see a radically different Texans's team. Whether they produce radically different outcomes is another question. I think they go above .500, but playoffs are unlikely. Maybe not. Lots of surprises are on the way. Definitely an interesting season ahead.
I'm not a believer in the whole, "they lost by one score" theory to build up a 2-14 team. This is a league with a tremendous amount of parity. From week to week, most games are close. The Texans aren't exceptional because they were a loser by losing close games. That describes all the losers in the league.
I am, but with a caveat. If you lose by 6 or fewer points, that means you had an opportunity to win those games. One possession games are not common for bad teams. Point differential in the NFL is a significant performance indicator.
I've seen this spelled out before, and one possession games are common throughout the league for both good and bad teams. Very common. I don't want to do the homework on it though. Let's hire an intern!
You don't have to be a "believer" but when you look at the teams at the bottom of the league, only the Texans and Falcons have more than 5 losses by one score or less. Most bad teams don't stay in games like that, and the Texans were doing it with a first place schedule.
Let me go ahead and put that misconception to bed for you. Here are the last 5 "worst" teams in the NFL. 2013 Texans Average Margin of Defeat: 11.5 # of losses by less than 7 points (i.e. "one possession"): 7 2012 Chiefs Average Margin of Defeat: 15.9 # of losses by less than 7 points: 1 2011 Rams Average Margin of Defeat: 16.8 # of losses by less than 7 points: 2 2010 Panthers Average Margin of Defeat: 15.8 # of losses by less than 7 points: 2 2009 Rams Average Margin of Defeat: 17.9 # of losses by less than 7 points: 4 It's not common for a "bad" team to lose half of their games by one possession, much less the worst team in the NFL. One possession games are common in the NFL, absolutely. That's what makes it so exciting. But for bad teams? Nope.
And their next season records 2013 Chiefs 11-5 2012 Rams 7-8-1 2011 Panthers 6-10 2010 Rams 7-9 We were more competitive than any of those teams so a winning season isn't out of the question.
and that first place schedule (as I've been told here before) is highly overrated. it impacts what...2 games?
Wild Card. Fitz is a decent game manager, just don't ask him to do too much. Texans should utilize Arian and let him carry the offense. Defensively Clowney/Watt will be too tough to handle. Cushing gets healthy and the entire defense gets better. Texans can be the 2nd best team in the division and colts aren't even that impressive. With a favorable schedule I see a wild card
Of course it CAN...but it sure as hell didn't mean anything close to that last season. It meant the difference between 2-14 and 4-12. Both are pretty awful.
It depends, 2 more wins early in the season and maybe the team doesn't give up like they did. It could have made a big difference. Either way on top of it all, we're playing easier conferences this year.
I guess I'm the intern today Here's every team with 4 or fewer wins. Falcons Average Margin of Defeat: 9.1 # of losses by less than 7 points: 6 Sidenote: I find this really funny because the Texans and the Falcons had basically mirror image seasons 2012 and 2013. Both considered really good contenders, both flopped hardcore. Both teams thought to be much better than their record would indicate. Browns Average Margin of Defeat: 11 # of losses by less than 7 points: 3 Jaguars Average Margin of Defeat: 18.3 (lol) # of losses by less than 7 points: 1 (rofl!) Buccaneers Average Margin of Defeat: 11.8 # of losses by less than 7 points: 4 Redskins Average Margin of Defeat: 12.6 # of losses by less than 7 points: 3 So, I guess the moral of the story is, your typical "bad" team will have somewhere around 3 one possession losses per year, not exactly common, but also not rare... moreso, "uncommon" and the Texans didn't play nearly as bad as their record would have you believe. Cold comfort to any fan, of course, but compared to past "bad" teams, we are in a hell of a lot better shape than most.
The Texans will have to play really smart football (not exactly their forte) and the defense will have to crush for them to finish above 500. The offense has too many question marks. No real QB. An oft injured prima donna running back and a weak offensive line makes overall prospects look dim. Of course, anything is possible in the NFL.
