On 4/23/2013, it was Astros -40, and Marilns -46. My bad since that is the last link I had seen. But if what you posted is the actual numbers, that's one helluva hot streak by the Marlins, and one helluva godawful streak by the Stros. So again, sorry... as of 4/23... the day the Marlins became awesome, and the Astros remain sucky.
When they were historically bad last year... but prior to any call ups... and they're still that bad this year, its frustrating. Its actually worse this year because the talent is seemingly better (at least not worse), and the bullpen/starters had been attempted to be upgraded. Yeah, forget about all the run differential stuff I brought up... clearly had the wrong stats in front of me.
Everything about this comparison to the Marlins is out of whack. Small sample sizes, completely different minor league starting points, relying on finding Jose Fernandez's, overvaluing the "aggressively promoted" Marlins talent, ignoring the same for the Astros, etc.
Your favorite model team, the Marlins, brought up all sorts of young talent last year - and were worse than the year before. You've said you agree with the general premise of how the Astros are being rebuilt. Outside of bringing up George Springer about 6 weeks earlier, where do you feel the Astros have fallen woefully short in their moves?
Sure... and once that young talent gets their feet wet and gets through their struggles, they're ready to hit the ground running the following season! They're not my favorite model team... they're just the antithesis to what the Astros are doing. Not worrying about arbitration/free agency years, finding out if players sink/swim faster, seemingly striking gold on players the Astros could have had. And overall, they're finding success earlier. Also, its worth noting the ire the Marlins got from Astros fans around here, that they would "hate" to be a part of that sort of franchise/rebuilding plan. I was in favor of bringing Springer up last year after the super-2 deadline, so more than just 6 weeks. Thought that the adjustment pattern he'd be facing was about where he is now, regardless of the extra minor league time (that was clearly to get the extra year of free agency). They could have aggressively promoted Folty, Stassi and had Appel avoid Lancaster (regardless of his appendectomy and lack of ST, I just think that place will eventually strain arms more than build them). After Singleton had his hot streak, a promotion could have been justified (but I do feel the club is keeping him down more for discipline reasons, along with salary reasons). Didn't like the 2 week experiment of wasting valuable starts with Harrell. Not that his replacement has done much better, but its the "well, we want to win soon... but we're not in a rush and will still experiment with players at the MLB level" mindset that annoys me, especially as the team continues to charge big league prices. I'm frustrated... but I'm still here and care. They've lost a lot of fans who simply don't care anymore. I'll never get to that point, but I don't have to agree with every single move this team makes (and I'll start venting from time to time, as the on-field product suffers... while other rebuilding teams keep finding gems that help their teams win sooner... check out Nolan Arenado's season!).
Do you place any of the blame on the players just not performing? That's gotta be accounted for somewhere. A lot of players have straight-up regressed and its nothing the club did. Castro, Obiehockey and Peacock have all regressed without injury being to blame for. Carter is mysteriously significantly worse. Heck even on the minor league side, on the whole the system is not performing nearly as well overall as they did last season.
Of course, that's definitely part of it. I expected regression from Castro, and it was pretty much universally predicted by the analytics at BP (but maybe not to this extent... he'll likely get back to respectable numbers). Oberholtzer has been a victim of some bad luck, and some pretty isolated bad starts. He's also had some good starts. He's a lefty who relies on control, and when its there, he's effective. On most teams, he's a borderline 4/5 at this point. Peacock has been a big disappointment... as he has much of his career. I thought he had adjusted/figured it out after his call up last year... but was equally baffled when they decided (stupidly) to go with Harrell. Not sure if his underuse in spring training, along with his initial stint in the bullpen has played a role in his inconsistent start. I still think his stuff is very good.... good enough to put up better numbers than he has. As far as the rest of the minor leagues, having Appel and Thurman be non-factors definitely downgrades this farm system. Correa had a hot start, but hasn't "dominated" Lancaster by any stretch. On the flip-side, Ruiz has looked good but there are warning signs of a "lancaster effect" for him. Folty/Singleton have looked good and probably should not be in the minors (if it was all about fielding the best possible MLB team). As highly ranked as the system is, the bulk of their "talent" is still in A ball or lower. They're going to have to eventually promote Jio Mier, Nolan Fontana, Andrew Applin, Preston Tucker, and even Delino Deshields and see who is capable of "sticking". I'm also not wasting much space on Chris Carter... not sure how much "better" people expect him to get. I really hope Stassi turns into something that sticks, because that Lowrie trade could be showing the vast difference between Beane and Luhnow as it pertains to talent evaluation of established MLB players.
The Lowrie that has a .774 OPS ?? Or the Villar that you just criticized that has a .791? The lowrie with 2 HR and 13 RBI vs the Villar that has 5 HR and 13 RBI I agree, Carter is horrible. But ripping Luhnow vs Beane when we have a SS just as good, and MUCH younger than Lowrie, well ok And for the record, I'm not 100% down with Luhnow, I don't think we have done a very good job of drafting the past two years to be honest . . .but only time will tell And it really cracks me up when people bring up the A's as the be all end all of baseball . . .last two years they have been great, but same people were running that organization the previous 5 years without a winning record any year
But they never had to bottom out to become a first place team again. They also rarely lose trades... and Luhnow is still losing the Lowrie one unless Stassi comes up and produces, despite Villar out-slugging Lowrie the first month of this season. Its not necessarily Lowrie vs. Villar... its getting equal or better value for trades of veterans who are starting MLB-capable players.
Thought you were better than this. Its ok to admit when other teams/GM's do things better. When it comes to the winning on the cheap and talent evaluation game, the A's have been running circles around the rest of the league for years. I would never be a fan of them because I like having players I like stick around for more than 4-5 years.
When it comes to winning on the cheap.. Which requires more shrewed talent evaluation, yes. It's not easy. Certainly seems easy enough to lose on the cheap.
When I run into people and sports come up, and I mention I'm from Houston, they give me a sympathetic smile and say, "shame."
Exactly, the last two years they have been good but not even a winning record five years straight leading up to that. And yet they have been the model franchise "for years" Bunch of crap We are horrible right now, horrible...but I've read enough about the great a's and wonderful marlins on here lately to last me a decade
I don't care about Marlins ire from fans last season - that's irrelevant to evaluating the Marlins methods. Who are these early sink/swim players that are finding early success with the Marlins (outside of Fernandez)? Fair enough - I don't think is ridiculous to actually send players to AAA before the majors. (It sounds like you're suggesting Springer, Folty, and Stassi should have skipped AAA). Folty is 22 and in AAA after spending 100 innings at AA and not particularly dominating single-A. I'm not sure how much faster he could move up. Singleton sucked in a full year at AAA and was suspended last year. I don't think you move guys after 2-3 weeks of success at a level. If he continues doing well, I'd expect to see him up mid-season. Check out Arenado's home vs away stats. High average, but zero power on the road. Arenado's season is really not much better than Villar if you account for Coors field, though in different ways - and both are 23 and spent 5 years in the minors before called up and playing about half a season in the majors last year. Arenado is, of course, a better hitter overall - he was a more highly touted prospect (2nd round vs undrafted) and plays a power position (3B) instead of SS. FWIW, RBI/run numbers for all the Astros are going to be depressed because most of the guys on the team don't get on base. For example, Arenado has twice as many RBIs, but he's also had 41 ABs with RISP vs 13 for Villar. Put Villar in the Rockies lineup and in Coors field and I suspect people are raving about him too.
Well, Stanton was an early call up... made the jump from AA to the big leagues at age 20. Presuming Correa gets to AA at some point this year, he would have to be called up around mid-season 2015, skipping AAA, to be on the same track (I don't think he's up here till late 2016 if at all at the earliest). Yelich also made the jump from AA last year, after starting the year in A ball. Ozuna made the jump from AA. I don't think there's a definite right or wrong way to do things. I don't think there's overwhelming data that AAA is a necessary springboard, as most of the players who stick or have a ton of success at the MLB level likely spent little to no time there. I also don't think a player "failing" once he reaches the big leagues is a clear-cut sign of poor development... its always going to require a big adjustment, and players can make adjustments/improve at the MLB level. I feel getting them up here sooner gives them more of an indication where their true deficiencies are. So, yeah... I guess I don't entirely agree with this front office's desire to have every player play in every level, regardless of their talent/development/or MLB team needs. Its also an easier way to stash players to avoid free agency/arbitration raises. Was just one example. I'm sure he'll be touted as a "once in a generation" guy too that this organization can't expect to find. Even by accident, teams "run into a guy" from time to time. The Astros are sorely in need of an over-achiever, or somebody to exceed expectations and blossom.
