Were Mo Williams' actions just what this team needed? Will it ignite a flame in this team to finally tear Portland apart?
Portland has played well, but it's during crunch time when they really come alive by drilling 90 foot 3 pointers. It feels like we are being scratched and clawed to death for every shooting attempt in the fourth with no foul call. When it goes the other way, Lillard shoots a 3 from the scorer's table and drills it. Credit where it's due; but it's like lightning has struck 3-4 times in a row at this point.
Portland sold its soul to the devil for this playoff series. Hakeem reincarnated to Aldridge and Lillard has turned in to prime Ray Allen. Harden has regressed and Howard has looked like an MVP caliber player. This is Dwight's team from here on out.
% chance Rockets force a game 7? Win the series? I know, a couple of somewhat similar threads already, but not exactly the same. Using just a number, and maybe 1-2 supporting thoughts, what are your % guesses on the Rockets forcing game 7, and also on winning the series? Without getting too scientific about it such as by using the % chance to win each game multiplied (probably because, subconsciously, I don't want to think about the long odds), I would say: 30% to force game 7 20% to win the series
I'd say there's a 20% of winning the series. Winning Game 5 is doable, but I think with Portland at home in Game 6 and knowing they need to only win one more game in order to close out the Rockets, everyone on their team will step up. I'll say this much though. If it does go to a Game 7, Portland is toast.
Vegas has Houston as a 5.5 point favorite for game five. I'm looking everywhere that I can for hope and reassurance.
I'm tempted to give them no chance the way they've performed down the stretch, but I'll give them a generous 5%.
You first need to win the next game, that's 50/50 by the way how this series has gone. If we won G5, then we need to win G6, that's another 50/50, then there is the G7 50/50. One game a time. There is no point of looking at G7 right now.
Game 5: When the underdog has a 3 games to 1 lead going in to game 5, the higher seed wins 72.73% of the games to bring the series to a 2-3 tally. This is a high winning percentage, but still lower than the overall game 5 favorite winning percentage of 74.53%. This slightly lower winning percentage could be due to some game 5’s being away games for the favorite, or that the lower seed has to be a worthy opponent to have taken a three games to one series lead. Game 6: When the lower seed has won three games going into a game 6, they are relatively dominant - winning 72.34% of their chances to win the series on their home-court. This is easily the highest winning percentage of any other game by the underdog (except for the 6 times the lower seed has swept in the 7 times they had a chance to in game 4 at home). game 7: The home team/higher seed wins 82.14% of the time. That puts us at about a 16.5% chance of winning the series, and a 20% chance of pushing it to 7 games.
~.65% we win game5. ~.40% we win game6. ~.55% we win game7. .26% we force game7. (~1/4, pretty good odds) .143% we win the series.
1)I don't trust that our PG's will play at a higher level to match Lillard 2)I don't trust Mchale's substitution patterns. Daniels needs to be in the game (not Lin) 3)Harden is a suspect superstar who quits and plays no D Add that up and it = 0%
Yep. All comes down to "do u trust mchale and this 8deep rotation to get it done? Sadly I don't. Could be a plus for the future though as long mchale isn't retained.
