ClutchFans Game Thread: Blazers @ Rockets 4/23/2014 (Playoffs Round 1, Game 2)

cdrive · Apr 23, 2014

ZACH freaking ZARBA.

I was at that game. Good lord.
http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterocke...py-refs-put-multiple-players-in-foul-trouble/

Come on, Rockets!

cdrive · Apr 23, 2014

One of our main keys tonight is for Dwight to dominate and get established early. Last time Zach Zarba officiated, Dwight had 2 ticky tacky fouls in the first 5 minutes. We need to be careful.

AvgJoe · Apr 23, 2014

Hakeemtheking said: ↑

Please...Tmac and Yao are nothing to talk about as far as playoff successes are concerned.
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Fixed. Yao won that Porland series.

WaitForIt · Apr 23, 2014

AvgJoe said: ↑

Fixed. Yao won that Porland series.
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And could've won the Lakers series. My signature applies, as always, when talking about Yao.

AvgJoe · Apr 23, 2014

cdrive said: ↑

ZACH freaking ZARBA.

I was at that game. Good lord.
http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterocke...py-refs-put-multiple-players-in-foul-trouble/

Come on, Rockets!
Click to expand...

<iframe class="vine-embed" src="https://vine.co/v/MqjJKi5zilM/embed/simple" width="600" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe><script async src="//platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ref you suck revisit.

Drexlemare fan

moose · Apr 23, 2014

If they Rocket are who we thought they were, they will win tonight.

Hakeemtheking · Apr 23, 2014

AvgJoe said: ↑

Fixed. Yao won that Porland series.
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Not much of a big deal, was it? I guess years of suckiness have conditioned our fans not too expect much.

WaitForIt · Apr 23, 2014

mrm32 said: ↑

At 930 our time.
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I like being a West coast Rockets fan :grin:

KlutchQT · Apr 23, 2014

We only used TT for 3 minutes last game?

J.R. · Apr 23, 2014

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...-playoffs?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_strohaldridge

The Portland-Houston paradox

Dwight Howard couldn't wait to unveil the juicy stat to the sea of reporters.

This was Saturday, the day before Game 1 of the series between the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers. Howard was participating in his daily media availability after the Rockets' practice. After discussing important things like team haircuts and the Ferrari he's letting Chandler Parsons borrow for the playoffs, a reporter finally asked about, you know, basketball.

"Dwight, can you talk about LaMarcus Aldridge and just facing him and the matchup you got?"

Before talking through the standard X's and O's scouting report, Howard just had to let the factoid fly.

"LaMarcus? He's taken more 2s than our whole team all year," Howard said.

More two-point baskets than an entire NBA team? Well, hold on a second. If that stat sounds too good to be true, that's because it isn't true. Not quite.

What Howard meant to say, and what the famously nerdy Rockets staff had informed their team during the series prep work, was that Aldridge had taken more long 2s, or midrange shots, than the entire Rockets had all season. And that's factually correct; Howard just so happened to be a victim of the game of telephone.

If you're wondering, here's the astonishing midrange shot count in the 2013-14 regular season:

Aldridge: 899
Rockets: 728

The Rockets have all but abandoned the midrange game as part of a team-wide philosophy to pound the holy trinity of high-efficiency areas on the floor: the basket, the free throw line and the 3-point line. This has come to be known as "Moreyball," named after Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Midrange shots, on average, don't have a high payoff because they rarely don't yield foul calls and they are just about as likely to go in as 3-point shots. So they avoid them.

The result? The Rockets have fewer midrange shots than Aldridge, and more than 1,000 fewer than the league average team. The Rockets are such an outlier, in fact, they have taken 604 fewer midrange shots as the next long-2-allergic team.

And here's the funny thing: With all those supposedly toxic shots, the Portland Trail Blazers' offense has been just as good as their first-round opponent.

This is the Houston-Portland paradox.

If you were to sketch a hierarchy of numbers-savvy NBA organizations, the Blazers would be housed in the upper-tier just below the Rockets.

The Blazers are geeky in their own right. The team's owner created Microsoft. Their head coach Terry Stotts ranks as one of the most analytically-inclined sideline-roamers in the league and you'll see his players watch film on iPads in the middle of the game on the bench.

Though their general manager Neil Olshey is a traditional basketball guy, not cut from the same numbers-crunching mold as Morey, the Blazers employ a staff of statisticians and programmers whom Stotts regularly consults with through their basketball analytics manager Ben Falk, a brainiac the team calls "Wiz."

And yes, they love taking midrange shots. And it hasn't kept them from ranking as one of the most unstoppable offenses in the league. The Rockets rank fourth in offensive efficiency at 108.6 and the Blazers rank fifth at 108.3. Virtually indistinguishable.

So what's going on here?

Stotts understands this presents a bit of a paradox. But he believes there's not one diet for a healthy offense. "Regardless of what the analytics say, we have a lot of guys that if you leave open in a midrange shot, it's a great shot," Stotts says. "A wide-open 16-foot jump shot for [Aldridge] or Damian Lillard or Nicolas Batum or Wesley Matthews, it's a 70 percent shot."

Indeed, Insider Amin Elhassan extolled this virtue earlier in the season.

Certainly, not all midrange shots are created equal. On average, yes, midrange shots can look like an unworthy endeavor compared to other varieties. But Aldridge is an elite midrange shooter, especially when he's left open. Not exactly 70-percent elite, but SportVU 3D-track says Aldridge is shooting 46 percent on uncontested jumpers, which is above your average midrange shooter.

And there's value in being able to get a shot off, even if it isn't the most efficient. There's nothing complicated to what Aldridge and the Blazers do, but simplicity has its virtues. For example, the lowest turnover rate of any playoff team at 13.9 percent of their possessions. Meanwhile, the Rockets have the highest turnover rate of any playoff team (16.3 percent).

The Rockets might have James Harden and Howard, but they don't have a skilled big man like Aldridge who, at 6-foot-11 with a nearly unblockable jump shot release, can get the midrange shot off just about whenever he pleases.

"That's my game, you know? I shoot mid-range shots," Aldridge says. "Our offense works with me taking midrange shots and most teams like to give up midrange shots. So if I specialize in that shot, then why not shoot it?"

Aldridge's midrange jumper, either at the top of the key or on the left side of the floor, stabilizes the Blazers' offense, allowing the other four players locate their hot spots. Robin Lopez rarely leaves the basket area. Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews are all killer from beyond the arcs.

For Stotts, the key is proper spacing. And proper spacing yields open shots, which is currency for healthy offenses.

"That's why I think it's important that players play with a freedom to make basketball plays, not second-guess their shot selection," Stotts says. "Because if you're open in this league, and it's your shot, it's a good shot."

And the midrange shot is Aldridge's shot. And he feels like the Rockets are giving it to him.

"I've always had that shot," Aldridge says. "That's ow I made my name early and that's the shot I've always had. But I feel like the Rockets don't want to give you 3s, and they don't want to give you the rim, so they give you more midrange shots."

It might be news to Howard, but Aldridge has known for months that he's had more midrange shots than the Rockets. Once Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry unearthed that stat back in February, word trickled to Aldridge by the time he was sent to New Orleans for the All-Star game.

And now, Aldridge is keeping tabs on the stat in the series.

"Twelve to 12," Aldridge correctly confirmed. "I have to let them win that one. Just kidding. I'm not changing."

The day will come when Morey acquires a mid-range maven like Aldridge. It just hasn't happened yet.

So, would Morey ask the player to change his stripes in the name of Moreyball? Or would he let the player shoot his shot like the Blazers have?

To Morey, it's an easy answer.

"If we had a player like Aldridge, we would play to his strengths as key in this league isn't to be dogmatic to a certain idea, but to play to the strengths of your players and to put them in a system that's most effective for them."

It's no secret that Morey's stars aren't hardwired to excel from the midrange. James Harden can get to the rim at will, shoots 37 percent from deep and ranks in the top 10 all time among guards in free throw attempts per minute. Howard uses a midrange jumper like a fire extinguisher -- only in case of emergency.

If it helps increase the odds of coming out on top, Morey is on board regardless of how it fits with their present scheme. If you haven't noticed, Howard hasn't started taking 3-point shots

"For sure, we wouldn't do that," Morey said. "That'd be crazy. If we had a player like Aldridge, I think we'd comfortably be letting him bomb away from the midrange if it helped us win games."

The insights of analytics is constantly changing because the market is constantly changing. As teams smarten up about the payoffs of certain shots, they'll become more sought after on the open market. It's Economics 101. And as demand for certain types of players rises, so, too, will the price of those players.

At some point, the 3-point shooting bubble will burst and other shots will become more valuable. There is a natural cycle to these things. In the same way that players with high on-base percentages ceased to be a market inefficiency after "Moneyball" became a national bestseller, guys like Kyle Korver will be making $10 million annually, not the current $6 million. And then the market will react.

And soon, the midrange shot won't be passé for long.

"That's the very nature of market dynamics," Morey says. "The question is not 'What is the best shot?' It's 'What is the best relative to what everyone else thinks?' That's the challenge that you're trying to solve."

Right now, the market doesn't regard a midrange shooter like Aldridge. But that can change. The NBA is a copycat league. If the Blazers beat the Rockets in this series thanks to Aldridge's midrange game and eventually make a run at a championship? Soon enough Aldridge will be a trailblazer, regardless of whether he plays for Portland.
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AvgJoe · Apr 23, 2014

Hakeemtheking said: ↑

Not much of a big deal, was it? I guess years of suckiness have conditioned our fans not too expect much.
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Yao time Rockets beat Portland. This year's Rockets are 0-1 in a playoff series against Porland. Yes, no big deal, but very much relevant.

qetwr111 · Apr 23, 2014

is this a must win for Hou?

Pull_Up_3 · Apr 23, 2014

qetwr111 said: ↑

is this a must win for Hou?
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not sure if srs

J.R. · Apr 23, 2014

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Keep close on 2Q tonight. During season, HOU had o-rating of 102.8, D-rating of 88.1 in 2Q vs POR. Sunday night: 120.8 & 87.2.</p>— Jason Friedman (@JasonCFriedman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonCFriedman/statuses/459006978262462465">April 23, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Basic lesson from those numbers: When Blazers’ starters sit & bench is on floor, Rockets have and should continue to dominate those minutes.</p>— Jason Friedman (@JasonCFriedman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonCFriedman/statuses/459007028162080768">April 23, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

qetwr111 · Apr 23, 2014

I'm mean, obviously technically no. But if they go down 2-0, that's a huge mental hole to climb out of.

khyberjones · Apr 23, 2014

J.R. said: ↑

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...-playoffs?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_strohaldridge
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Short translation: Portland uses analytics more creatively than do the Rockets.

khyberjones · Apr 23, 2014

This game will be more like the Brooklyn-Toronto or Washington-Chicago game than the other game 2 blowouts. The two teams are evenly matched.

KlutchQT · Apr 23, 2014

qetwr111 said: ↑

I'm mean, obviously technically no. But if they go down 2-0, that's a huge mental hole to climb out of.
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I personally don't see them recovering from being down 2. Tonight may as well be Game 7, IMO.

yummyhawtsauce · Apr 23, 2014

J.R. said: ↑

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Keep close on 2Q tonight. During season, HOU had o-rating of 102.8, D-rating of 88.1 in 2Q vs POR. Sunday night: 120.8 & 87.2.</p>— Jason Friedman (@JasonCFriedman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonCFriedman/statuses/459006978262462465">April 23, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Basic lesson from those numbers: When Blazers’ starters sit & bench is on floor, Rockets have and should continue to dominate those minutes.</p>— Jason Friedman (@JasonCFriedman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonCFriedman/statuses/459007028162080768">April 23, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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problem with that is, this is the post season now and the bench is bit smaller so the people on the floor is much different than it was in regular season. question though - has portland's bench also shrunk as well? i know they didn't use a few people they used in the regular season and kept them on the bench

Cstyle42 · Apr 23, 2014

khyberjones said: ↑

This game will be more like the Brooklyn-Toronto or Washington-Chicago game than the other game 2 blowouts. The two teams are evenly matched.
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Wouldn't surprise me if Rockets blew them out.

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