believe it or not, players who get consistant minutes play better consistant playtime, rhythm, usage all contribute to good play just a fyi. but i know you guys love shtting on him
Wow, really? THAT's your analysis? One that gives NO context? Does not account for minutes, free throws, or distribution of shots? And taking an average over a 2 game sample with unequal minutes? How about we look at Lin vs a team and compare what happens when you do a proper statistical comparison and compare it to what YOU just did. Lin vs Spurs 12/25/13, 33 mins, http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312250SAS.html 13 points, 8 assists, 2 reb, 1 stl, 2 blk, 1 TO 5/10 FG, 1/2 3pt, 2/4 FT 50.0% FG%, 50.0% 3pt, 50.0% FT% 55.3% TS%, 55.0% eFG% 01/28/14, 44 mins, http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201401280HOU.html 18 points, 8 assists, 3 reb, 1 blk, 3TO 5/13 FG, 1/5 3pt, 7/7 FT 38.5% FG%, 20% 3pt, 100% FT% 56% TS%, 42.3% eFG% Season Total vs Spurs, 77 mins 31 points, 16 assists, 9/11 FT, 5 reb, 1 steal, 3 block, 4 TO 10/23 FG, 2/7 3pt, 9/11 FT 43.47% FG%, 28.57% 3pt%, 81.81% FT% 55.6% TS%, 47.82 eFG% Production per 36 minutes 9 points, 6.9 AST, 2.16 reb, .44 stl, 1.3 block, 1.7 TO Ast/TO : 4.05 Gee... the narrative looks REALLY different when you factor in minutes and the impact of free throws doesn't it? Or when you account for minutes and properly weigh in 3 pointers vs 2 pointers? I can't tell whether you just do not understand what the box scores are telling you, or you are intentionally ignoring statistical context in an attempt to forward an agenda. Your analysis gives minimal insight as to how well Lin plays against a specific team. Come back and post when you've done an analysis that a stats 101 professor wouldn't throw in a paper shredder.
You've read his posts before I gather. Haha Now torocan is going to come around and splice the stats around to make his play look better. (He's never done that before, I'm just giving a wild guess)
Now, let's take a look at a team that Lin has not played well against and put it proper statistical context, with FT's and time adjusted. Lin vs Clippers 11/04/13, 30 minutes, http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311040LAC.html 14 points, 8 assists, 2 reb, 1 stl, 1 TO 4/8 FG, 1/2 3pt, 5/6 FT 65.8 TS%, 56.3 eFG% 50% FG, 50% 3pt, 83.33% FT% 11/04/13, 26 minutes, http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311090HOU.html 6 points, 7 assists, 1 reb, 1 stl, 5 TO 3/7 FG, 0/0 3pt, 0/0 FT 42.9 FG%, 42.9 TS%, 42.9 eFG 02/26/14, 19 minutes, http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201402260LAC.html 6 points, 3 assists, 3 reb, 2 stl, 2 TO 2/8 FG, 1/3 3pt, 1/2 FT 25% FG, 33.3% 3pt, 50.0% FT 33.8% TS%, 31.3 eFG% 03/29/14, 31 minutes, http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201403290HOU.html 10 points, 2 assists, 2 reb, 3 TO 1/9 FG, 0/3 3pt, 8/8 FT 11.11% FG%, 0% 3pt%, 100% FT% 39.9% TS%, 11.11% eFG% Season Total vs Clippers, 106 minutes 36 points, 20 assists, 8 reb, 4 steals, 11 TO 10/32 FG, 2/8 3pt, 14/18 FT 31.25% FG%, 25% 3pt%, 77.77% FT% 45.0% TS%, 34.37 eFG% Production per 36 minutes 12.20 points, 6.78 Assists, 2.71 reb, 1.36 steal, 3.73 TO Ast/TO : 1.82 Once again, a very different picture emerges.
Torocan, Love your posts, but they read like excuses. Lin doesnt make excuses, let his play dictate his minutes. DD
They're not excuses. They're statistical breakdowns of his actual on court production when adjusted for time and actual on floor impact. How many points he scores per possession is what it is. His impact per minute is what it is. If Harden shoots 1/11 he looks terrible. If he shoots 1/11 while scoring 30 points due to shooting 28/32 FT's because the defense fouled him every time he was about to score then shouldn't the FT's mean something? If you only talk about his 1/11 shooting, you're ignoring his actual on court impact. If you weigh points in a game where a player plays 45 minutes the same as one where he plays 10 minutes, you're going to get results that don't properly show their effective production. If you weigh shooting percentages from 2 and 3 point shots identically, it also doesn't properly show on court impact. Here is an example... Player A : 4/10 Player B : 5/10 Who's the better shooter? Sounds easy right? Now how about this... Player A : 4/10 3pt, 12 points Player B : 5/10 2pt, 10 points Context makes a difference, as it should. I'd rather have player A's stat line 100/100 times even though his FG% is 10% lower. Whatever minutes a player has, how they use those minutes is the most important factor. And any analysis that does not take on court context into account is fundamentally misleading. This is why analysts prefer eFG% over TS%. And why in general analysts prefer TS% over eFG%. That's not making excuses. That's trying to properly examine a player's impact. If we're going to say player A is good and player B is bad, then trying to determine their actual on court impact should be our concern. And the only way to understand what actually happens on the court from a statistical perspective is to properly account of context. In the case of this thread, minutes played, FT's, and 2pt vs 3pt scoring.
That's no excuses, just stats 101. Lin' s performance against clipper was quite poor, but at least put stats in proper format.
That's because grit is one of those invaluable tangibles that you just can't measure, but just about every single championship team needs.
They are not just stats - they are hand picked stats to make one side of an argument. Stats are part of the story, not the entire story. They can be manipulated in all sorts of ways. Lies, damned lies and statistics. DD
I didn't hand pick the stats. Those are the numbers that properly adjust the stats the Original Poster provided, ie time adjusted and shot adjusted. If you say player A shoots Y and don't properly contextualize it, then it's a faulty analysis. If you say player A shoots X PPG with unequal minutes, then it's a faulty analysis. They are hand picked in the same way that if you said, "My car gets 20MPG. Don't buy it, it gets terrible mileage." and I said, "That's misleading, the car gets 18MPG in the city and 44 MPG on the highway and all you do is drive it around the block to pick up groceries." I didn't hand pick Mileage per gallon as a stat, YOU did. All I did was contextualize it appropriately. And data isn't manipulated. The data is the data. How much import you attach to that data (accepting/discarding data as meaningful or not), the actual formula that you use to analyze that data, and how you interpret that data is where subjective bias comes into play. It's up to each reader to determine the appropriate use of a statistic, it's mathematical validity and applicability to a situation, and whether the interpretations are sound or justifiable given you accept the validity and applicability of the statistic in question. The OP provided a series of stats (not arguable) and then analyzed them in a way that's procedurally flawed (arguable). I presented an analysis that corrected the procedural errors. I provided no opinion on the analysis I presented. It's up to each reader to determine whether they feel my analysis was procedurally sound and form their own interpretation of the analysis. I didn't say that Lin was good or bad. Just that if you're going to present a set of numbers, analyze them correctly.
At this point as DD noted the 'eyeball test' is plenty enough to tell whether Lin is playing well -- we don't need detailed analytics to notice when Lin drives, picks up his dribble, and jumps forcing a bad pass to someone who isn't expecting the ball. We don't need stats to notice the negative body language when he is out of synch with the rest of the team. Lin has a very short span to turn it around before the playoffs or his minutes are going to be cut significantly.
Not that I want to make myself seem more of a LOF. But the logic on this board is getting absurd. Raw FG % stats - dude Lin sucks. TS % stats - dude, that's just excuses. Lin sucks anyway. Cheers
Like him or not, he's probably going to be here next season. I'm sure Morey will try to dump his contract, but nothing less than a stellar playoff performance will make that any easier.
JVG eyeball statement during Miami game in March --- Lin was overrated (during Linsanity). Lin is now underrated.
Lin is an average scoring PG, who is pretty good with the ball in his hand, average playing off the ball, and outside of PnR is not that good of a passer. He peaks too much on defense and is easily beaten off the dribble. He is a solid NBA player - but nothing special. DD
Try to understand torocan's posts without bias and the assumption that he's making Lin look good. He appears to be a stats person and simply pointed out the OP's bad presentation of stats. Again, he didn't provide any opinion on whether Lin's good or bad....just sound procedural stats. For the record, Lin played poorly vs OKC and LAC. My conclusion is based on both the eye test and stats (no matter how you slice it)
He probably works for the Rockets and is trying to keep the fanbase from completely turning on Lin for his poor play - by skewing stats - and focusing on those that make him look decent. Doesn't mask what the eyeballs see, or what seasoned basketball people can tell, that he is ok, just not great. DD
