Lmao! 65-75%? You must've been watching the game on the big screen at Tan Tan on Bellaire. Toyota Center demographics is over 1% asian only when it's a car manufacturing plant in Japan.
What about all the site clicks clutchfans has received since Lin joined? Thats gotta be 4 or 5 mil of value to Clutch alone right?? :grin:
No. Not exactly. Without getting too far into the complexities of the revenue sharing scheme (which changes to some degree depending on whether you're a small or large market team and your salary spending), revenue may or may not be split (or contributed) depending on the source and nature of the revenue. Locally generated revenues (like local seat sales, local television deals, local advertising deals, and local merchandise sales) go directly into the pocket of the local team. Nationally generated revenues such as national broadcasting rights, nationally licensed merchandise (like through nba.com), national sponsorships (like KIA) are placed into a revenue pool and then shared. So, let's participate in a basic revenue exercise. Lin is literally a "superstar" in Taiwan (the place of his parents' birth). He is also the ONLY NBA player of Taiwanese descent in the NBA. As long as Lin is in the NBA and playing reasonable minutes, that's not going anywhere. Taiwan doesn't have nearly the "star athlete" saturation that the US or many other countries have... in other words, despite their population being around 23M people (2/3 the population of Canada) or 10x the population of the city of Los Angeles, they don't have a large list of Internationally recognized athletes. In other words, Lin has very little competition in audience head space as athletes go. Maxxis (Cheng Shin Rubber) tire signed a deal to advertise directly at the Toyota center through digital ads only after Lin joined the Rockets. Maxxis is an international tire company that is ranked as the 9th largest tire company in the world with over $9B in revenue. They also are owned and operated out of Taiwan. For an entire season, the cheapest set of digital ads (those LED screens you see on TV around the scorers table and such) in the NBA cost approximately $75,000 per season. $75,000 is the MINIMUM you would pay for one season of ads at a low profile, no name basketball team. Obviously it would be considerably more on a higher profile team like the Lakers. http://www.medialifemagazine.com/your-clients-ad-at-nba-games/ In stadium digital signage would be considered "local" revenue and NOT shared by the NBA. Now, this is where it gets unusual with Jeremy Lin. While Lin does share the "mindspace" of athletes like Yao Ming in mainland China or Lebron and Melo in the US, he has very few athletes that compete with him in the Taiwanese landscape. In other words, Lin automatically brings with him a base market of an entire COUNTRY that is 1.5x the size of the LA metropolitan area (16.3M people). As soon as Lin signed with the Rockets, Taiwanese television signed deals with the NBA to live broadcast Rockets games (in spite of a 13 hour time difference) as well as repeat broadcasts. And as long as he's active in the NBA, it is highly likely they'll continue to broadcast those games unless he gets embroiled in a major scandal or another player of Taiwanese descent emerges on the NBA scene (not highly likely any time soon). While the revenue for the actual broadcasts in Taiwan is considered a "national" deal and revenue shared, it doesn't really matter to the Rockets (or any other team) as that automatically boosts their effective "local" viewership and thus their local advertising revenues. So in directly attributable terms, Lin brings advertisers not only from Taiwan that want to increase local market presence, but he brings International advertisers that want increased market presence in Taiwan. IE, if you want to advertise to 23M Taiwanese consumers, sticking ads in the Toyota center is VERY effective. And that is without even considering a single one of his mainland Chinese fans, other International fans, local fans, or American fans which is far larger than it would normally be for an athlete of his pedigree. Given how many ways a sponsor can advertise inside a NBA arena in terms of signage, banners, blimps, decals, etc, Lin can directly contribute FAR more money than most of you would imagine -- especially for a smaller market team that does not command top end local advertising dollars. It is easily conceivable that just having Lin playing regular minutes (or starting) would generate $1M-$2M per year just in terms of in game advertising revenue. And we haven't even talked about arena ticket sales, local affiliated merchandise, or boosts to local viewership and the impact on local television deals. Revenue calculation exercise #2... The average ticket price per game ranges tremendously from team to team. As of February 2013, a single ticket for the Bobcats costs $30 on average. While a seat for the Knicks costs $129. http://www.businessinsider.com/aver...ams-in-the-nba-sports-chart-of-the-day-2013-2 Not counting the play offs, teams play 41 home games per year, and 41 road games per year. That means that even in the worst market (Bobcats), 1 extra ticket sold for an entire season is worth approximately $1200. While 1 extra ticket for the Knicks is worth approximately $5,300. Now let's say that a family of 4 buys 1 beer, 2 sodas and 2 hot dogs at a game as a reasonable minimum. For the sake of simplicity we'll exclude in stadium merchandise like jerseys, banners, etc. Using this analysis of in game attendance costs we can determine a basic in stadium revenue generation model. http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/which-nba-teams-most-affordable/ Bobcats game - approximately $19 Knicks game - approximately $24 So for a family of 4, that's approximately $5-$6 per person. Over 41 games, that's $200-$240 per season in terms of in stadium concession revenue. If Lin attracts even ONE family to attend an entire season (even IF they're only a local family from Taiwan), that's worth $5000-$20,000 in ticket sales over the season, and $800-$1000 in concession sales over the season. Would even the MOST skeptical of Lin fans try to argue that Lin couldn't attract more than One family to a local team's games? You tell me which scenario is more likely... Lin earning $7-8M/year on his next contract, the $3-4M per year that Ramon Sessions earns, or the $1-2M/year proposed by some of the posters in this thread? Just some stuff to think about...
Both parties will benefit from a trade. Lin will never play to his full potential alongside harden. The rockets loses out by not getting his full potential as well. Lin is probably worth in the ballpark of 6-8mil per year.
The accounting comes into play only if he plays well. If he plays poorly, he ain't worth squat. A guy like Yi Jianlian was worth a handful of dirt. Also, the fact that the Rockets do not hesitate to try to trade him shows exactly how much those purported ads revenue are worth... probably in the single digit millions. He would be a natural fit for the Knicks in a business sense, but that bridge is burnt. Lakers are another fit. It'd make sense for them to generously bid on Parsons and Lin in 2015. Because they're not winning, but damn Parsons looks pretty.
Lin has MUCH more rope than Yi Jianlian ever did. Yi is competing with FAR more athletes for the same market space (Mainland China), and does not occupy the same unique space that Lin does (Taiwan). A good comparison is Dmo. He's not exactly lighting it up, but he has a fairly extensive and hard core fanbase. The same applies to Casspi (first Israeli in the NBA). Their fan bases are going to give them a TON of rope since they're pioneers in national terms. Given that Lin is on a team where his skill set is highly overlapped (Harden), expect his fan base to also give him considerable latitude until they at least see him playing on a team where he's a more conventional PG/Combo guard (non-dominant shooting guard). As for the Rockets' valuation of Lin, it's going to be lower simply because they signed Howard and Harden. H&H will sell out the arena by themselves (blunting the impact of Lin on ticket sales) and have higher international and national profiles than Lin (blunting or completely negating Lin's impact on arena advertising and merchandising). And considering we're talking about Lin's contract being in the single digit millions, that he would bring in revenue in the single digit millions range is very significant in terms of determining his ultimate contract. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and in marketing it's all about best alternative option. When you have H&H, the marketing dollars are going to be viewed differently than many other teams in the NBA.
You really believe Taiwan with 20 million people and 0.9 birthrate means shyte to anyone? Lin's market is China. Same as Yi. Morey tried heck & high water to trade Lin to any team in off-season and at the trade deadline. No team took him, not even the Bobcats or Bucks. What does that tell you about their shadow price?
Unfortunately, your detailed analysis missed so many facts. 1. The major income source for any NBA team will be their local TV deal, currently for the last 2 years, the Comcast situation is a mess, there is NOTHING Lin or any other players can do jack about. Hence, Lin has zero effect on the biggest factor of Rocket's income. 2. Because of the above : The Rockets, who own 31% of the regional sports network, suffered a 57% drop in their average rating during the 2012-13 season, to 1.1, in the first year they were televised on CSN Houston. Hence your theory of having Lin on the team could have a potential ad market for Taiwan is completely close to a joke. Did you even know CSN filed bankruptcy already and the lawsuit was going on for months? 3. http://www.forbes.com/teams/houston-rockets/ 4. according to Forbes : a. Rockets revenue in 2012 was 150M, 2013 was 135M, 2014 expecting 191M b. Operating income in 2012 was 17.9M, 2013 was 26.6M, 2014 expecting 63.7M. Above stats clearing showing : - when you expecting effect from the operating income from a single player will play any important role, its a joke. - 2014 season we have more than double the operation income of 2013, that has NOTHING to do with Lin, that has to do with Howard and because we have a much better team. c. 2013 season, Rockets revenue was even lower than 2012, largely due to much less national TV games and this has been improved a lots this season with all the national televised games added. Again, Lin has NOTHING to do with it this season. Just use your own imagination and assumption without any facts to support for your arguments of "Lin's value outside the court"? Typical LOF.
As an aside, am curious to know the value of Parsons in market appeal to (1) whites and (2) females. Bet he rates the highest of any player in the NBA. How much is that worth?
Taiwan's market space is more critical as it has a moat. IE, there's NOBODY that can take that market away from him in the foreseeable future. Think of it as Lin's floor in terms of marketing impact. China's market *may* be bigger at any given time, but it can also shrink more quickly. Just the sheer number of sports and their depth of national and international athletes means there are a LOT of people fighting over that pie. And just because other teams aren't willing to take on $15M for Lin, does NOT mean he won't get $7m-$8m on his NEXT contract. His marketing value may not be sufficient to offset his $15M salary next year simply due to how profit margins work. If his contract next year was $8.3M (cap hit) instead of $15M, do you *really* believe he'd be as difficult to trade? The realities of his contract being back loaded change the financial equation in very direct terms. Trading Lin requires teams to take into account a host of variables that would not apply to normal contract structures or players. I get that you're not a fan of Lin, however saying that the value of Lin's contract as a $15M player is the same as his value as a Free Agent makes zero sense. The dollars are the dollars, and operating from ground zero the view is very, very different than taking on a sunk cost of $15M up front.
1. The CSN broadcast deal has NO impact on international broadcast rights which will be broadcast regardless of the situation in terms of local broadcast for CSN. The CSN bankruptcy is irrelevant to any broadcast market outside of Houston. CSN could shut down and national broadcasts and international broadcasts would STILL go on. As long as there is an international feed, the broadcast goes out. 2. Broadcast deals are time specific. And ANY boost in viewership is a benefit when the time comes to negotiating those deals. How much that would increase for a team when the time comes to negotiate those deals is highly market dependent. 3. While Lin's impact on the total operating income of the Rockets is not a large factor, it is STILL relevant to Lin's value when a team assesses the signing of a player. Just because a team makes $100M doesn't mean they will ignore the revenue benefits/losses of adding a player. And that value scales depending on market. The Rockets are one of the most profitable franchises in the NBA. And guess what, there's 29 OTHER teams and a LOT of them aren't very profitable. That $1-2M isn't going to impact the Rockets' profit line significantly this year after signing Howard and Harden. For a team that's not making a profit or making much profit at all, that revenue boost is far more meaningful. As long as Lin's signing does not impact the roster salary to the point that it impacts the ability to fill out a team (over the cap, or significantly under the cap), then the dollars earned will be a factor. 4. The addition of National games for the Rockets increased for a variety of reasons. The addition of Lin and Harden were a part of it. There was a discussion immediately post Lin signing about how many National games were added. This year the addition of Dwight and Harden's ascendance has been the driving factors. Team record last year and this year has also had an impact. However, not EVERY team has Howard and Harden. And my main discussion wasn't about national games. International broadcasts operate in their own space. That the Rockets have changed as a team and will value him less than another team is the entire point. If you're going to calculate a value for Lin's NEXT contract in free agency, looking at Lin's value through the lens of the Rockets' particular needs will give you a VERY different answer than if you view it through the lens of 29 other NBA teams. Every team is a unique situation. And surprise, not every team is going to value a player the same was as the Rockets.
Wait are we talking about his worth as a player or as a marketing tool? I could care less about how much he is worth outside of Lin the Rockets player.
