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Jeremy Lin's upside

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 20, 2012.

  1. WinkFan

    WinkFan Member

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    NBA.com defensive rating is heavily dependent on team defense and doesn't account for different lineups or opponents. To try to make judgments about individual players defensive ability using it is problematic.
     
  2. RedJinx

    RedJinx Member

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    Numbers should count for something, most people just use eye test rating lins and bev defense
     
  3. yummyhawtsauce

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    I really do believe if he got top 6th man minutes like J crawford he could put up similar production...hes already had some huge games for the rockets this season
     
  4. Joe-House

    Joe-House Rookie

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    isn't lin like the 10th best player on this team? why are there so many discussion on this guy, even more than Harden and Howard. Weird forum.
     
  5. RedJinx

    RedJinx Member

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    lol 10th? even most LOH don't see it that way.
     
  6. Clarinetmonster

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    Well let's see: Most important player off bench (arguably tied with Asik), has skill set only shared with one other player on the team whose initials are JH (not saying as good as, just that he's our second best play maker)- so...no, not 10th best player - but thanks for playing!
     
  7. SuperBeeKay

    SuperBeeKay Member

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    I'd say he's like our 7th or 6th best, and thats not saying hes bad. Hes just on a very talented young team

    Harden -> howard -> parsons -> Beverely (yes, he's that valuable, come playoff time you will see) -> asik -> Jones -> Lin -> Dmo
     
  8. khyberjones

    khyberjones Member

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    Beverley provides better on the ball pressure than Lin, but Lin is overall a more effective defender than Beverley. Lin generally holds opposing guards to a lower shooting percentage than does Beverley. Measuring defensive effectiveness is an imperfect science, but opposing FG% is about as good a place to start as any. While Lin doesn't press the ball the way that Beverley does, he also tends to force his man to take more jump shots or if the defender gets a step on him, he sends the offensive player to an area where the second line of defense can pick him up (much like a zone defense in football). In terms of rebounding and steals, the two are closer statistically than folks realize.

    Beverley's style of play is better suited to the 90's when grabbing, hand-checking and physical play were rewarded. Now, it results in early fouls and that gives the offensive player more confidence that he can force the issue and make Beverley either back-off or earn free throws.
     
  9. bobloblaw

    bobloblaw Member

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    You are manipulating the facts in a very unpalatable way. No one thinks that Lin is a better defender than Beverley because he is not a better defender than Beverley. Please choose another skill.
     
  10. mig0s

    mig0s Member

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    who's JH? Juwan Howard?
     
  11. Soft Takes

    Soft Takes Rookie

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    Well... I think it all depends on match ups. Some guys Bev really can help control if they are not very explosive/big/athletic. Obviously lin is better on bigger guards and strong ones as well due to his size advantage. But I would argue his size hurts him against the Isaiah thomases of the leagues and that's where Bev can be effective. Is anyone saying Bev is universally better on D? No, in fact, the numbers support that Lin has a marginal edge on defense, but there is no denying that Bev could certainly be used as an energy guy starting or off the bench in certain match ups.
     
  12. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    Lin just is simply not a better defender than Beverley, there's no way around it, Lin is slow laterally, he has tremendous north south speed but he isn't the fleetest of foot defensively, the argument can only be made in very specific circumstances where Beverley would simply be too small, like Lin defending kevin Martin.
     
  13. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    Beverley does exactly what he's meant to do, and if he can make the defense honor him to free up harden more by hitting the three at a 40 clip, with the pressure he applies defensively, he's a very useful piece for us.

    I'm quite big on Rondo but the Rockets have a very interesting PG tandem to say the least.
     
  14. Yellow

    Yellow Member

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    Lin better show that confidence he showed in New York, he needs to get that swagger back instead of that shaky play of him lately.
     
  15. lid1013

    lid1013 Member

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    Lin is so underrated and underappreciated on this forum. Imagine if Harden went out with injury, Lin's value to this team would skyrocket. Lins value isn't apparent because his skills overlap with Harden albeit not on as high of a level.
     
  16. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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  17. Benchwarmer

    Benchwarmer Member

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    Lin is a better pick and roll defender than Beverley who gets caught behind hard screens. Most point guards, even the elite point guards use picks to get into the paint, they rarely take their defender 1 on 1.
     
  18. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    It's the other way around.
     
  19. Sports2012

    Sports2012 Member

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    Glass half full or half empty.
     
  20. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Thanks man. Correct me if I am wrong, without malice of ocurse, but Defensive Ratings (DRTG) are calculated based on the Oppopnent PPS (Points Per Possession Allowed per 100 possessions) for both player and team; hence, there are two sets of data, team DRTG and player DRTG. In theory all team sport is the sum of its contributing participants, but some basic stats, even if team-aided, continue on as individual player stats (ppg, rebounds, steals, turnovers, blocks, assists, etc). And individual player DRTG is one of them. Team data, sabermetrics is valued more by basketball owners and administrators whereas casual fans still prefer traditional individual player stats. I wanted to post the 2013-2014 RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) and x-RAPM DRTG for Harden and Lin but that data are derived from +/- basis sets, which is influenced heavily by player combinations and team-lineups, so I opted instead for the more popular individual player DRTG from nba.com.

    But you raise a good point and I want to be a good poster, fair, and unbiased, so I am now posting the 2013-2014 team-based statistics for the Rockets as well: pure RAPM (Off), pure RAPM (Def), pure RAPM Total (Off + Def), xRAPM (Off), xRAPM (Def), and xRAPM Total (Off + Def), where xRAPM is a metric caluclated as the sum of the previous year’s RAPM and Box Score sets: the 2013-14 xRAPM = [0.65 (0.85 x RAPM from 2012-2013) + 0.35 (Box Scores from 2012-2013)]. You can find the entire history of Jeremias Englemann’s xRAPM formulas on page six of the following website: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8025&start=75. As shown below, the team-based stats favor Patrick Beverly as the 2nd best, and in some cases, the very best player on this team, a number that supports (even goes further than the data posted by Clutch some time ago) the view that many here determined previously via the naked eye. In fact, one data set ranks Patrick Beverly as the 4th best (not the 4th most talented), but the 4th best TEAM PLAYER in the entire NBA (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html). The data below shows the difference between individual player and team-based statistics. Finally, I ranked the players by xRAPM (last column). I didn’t include injured and/or rarely utilized players.

    Player RAPM(O)--RAPM(D)--RAPM (O+D)--xRAPM(O)--xRAPM(D)--xRAPM (O+D)
    (Numbers in bold indicate negative numbers; (O)=offense; (D) = defense))
    PBev-----2.8--------2.5--------5.3--------------3.3----------1.1-----------4.4
    DHowd--0.6--------3.3--------2.7--------------0.7----------4.7-----------4.0
    Harden--4.3--------1.2--------3.1--------------6.1----------2.6-----------3.5
    Asik-----1.5---------3.3--------1.8-------------0.8-----------4.2-----------3.4
    Parsons-0.6---------0.2--------0.4-------------2.0-----------0.2-----------2.1
    DMo-----0.5---------0.6--------0.1-------------0.2-----------1.3-----------1.1
    Jlin------1.7---------0.9--------0.8-------------0.1----------- 0.1-----------0.2
    Tjones---0.4--------2.1---------2.5------------0.9-----------1.5-----------0.6
    Casspi---2.4-------0.9---------1.3-------------1.7-----------0.9-----------0.8
    Canaan--1.3--------0.8--------2.1-------------0.9-----------2.0----------2.9
     

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