Very unlikely any team will trade up for Clowney when Mack is available as well. There's no Andrew Luck in this draft but there is no Julius Peppers in this draft either (not even close). Teams usually only trade up to the top of the draft for offensive players.
Seattle got their pass rushers off the free agent market and spent their first round picks on Percy Harvin. The only big time 1st round pick on their defense is Earl Thomas. So the Texans should draft a safety if they want to follow Seattle's blueprint defensively.
Using the Jimmy Johnson chart that over-values high round picks, the top pick is so massively expensive a team has to feel that they are 1 player away (stacked and loaded with depth), AND that, that one player is in this draft and unattainable any other way. With 3 equal quarterbacks, 2 OT's and 2 pass rushers and the only great WR rated in the 5-10 range, I can't see any compelling trade possibility for the #1 pick. If a trade does come out of the woodwork it will probably be with a team in the high 20's which means we will probably have to take a 2015 pick back in trade. (this year's #25, some combination of 3's and 4's plus a #1 next year) I wouldn't mind that because I think if Mr. McNair has the patience, he can draft the future franchise QB next year, but NFL owners don't think like that.
I think it's going to be Clowney or Bortles. If Clowney, best QB available in round two. That seems to be the safest bet.
The big fear of trading out of the #1 spot is that you may not get the value in return of the player you pass up. Even if you get the extra picks there's no telling what those picks will become. The "MONEY" positions (most valued) in the NFL are the quarterback, left tackle, receiver, and pass rusher. 3 of those positions are the most difficult to find an elite caliber player and that's the QB, LT, and WR. There's only a handful of players that are elite at each of those positions in the NFL but pass rushers are always in abundance. Sammy Watkins is the one player at the top of this draft that looks every bit the part of an elite #1 receiver and has less flaws than the pass rushers, QBs, and the offensive tackles in this draft. And with the NFL becoming more of a passing league and the rules are changed yearly to help the quarterback and receiver _ I just don't understand why Sammy isn't getting consideration for the #1 pick.
I would rather have Robert Mathis... He's just as good if not better and he was drafted in the 5th round. Pass rushers come a dime a dozen.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-nfls-highest-paid-positions-2013-10 I'd argue the heirarchy is QB > LT > Pass rusher (DE & OLB) > CB > WR
I agree with that 100%. Those positions, in that order, are how you should look to build. But I think WR is a deep position. I realize they get paid... but it's deep. Like point guard. I'd consider DT/C right up there.
The Texans dimes must be made of wood because they have had a hard time getting a dozen. I think they have drafted a dozen and found about 3.
My apologies Donny... I should have said "in no particular order." But like I said _ pass rushers are in more abundance so they are MUCH easier to find than the other positions. And there are no corner backs in this draft worth taking with the #1 pick and yes elite ones are hard to find... No argument there.
True but there are only a handful of true elite #1 receivers in the NFL... Just like point guards in the NBA...
Forget that... Look at all the defensive players they drafted throughout their history in the 1st round but only have J.J. to show for it. But they've spent 4 1st round picks on offense and only had 1 bust, 2 pro bowlers (one potential H.O.F.), and Hopkins who could be a solid #2 receiver. They've had better luck with offense in the 1st round.
By the way... Seattle has had trouble drafting pass rushers too... Which is probably why they've been going after them in the free agent market. Like Bennett who was undrafted.
I don't think they're as abundant as much as they are just easy to evaluate. The skillset is quite raw and simplistic. Make the guy holding the ball fall down, preferably behind the line of scrimmage. The "hit rate" in the draft for LBs/DEs is a lot higher than most other positions. It's also quite high for OL (another "simplistic" position). Skill position guys are just inherently risky and more difficult to evaluate, and sometimes really talented ones never find their way into the lineup for one reason or another.
I'd put WR last in that group as well... a WR depends on the OLine doing their job in giving the QB time, they depend on the QB to get them the ball, and they depend on the RB to keep the defense honest. Plus, the elite are thrown to, what, about 12-15 times a game?
The drop off between Clowney and guys like Ford and Trent Murphy (who would be an excellent 3-4 LB) isn't much if any... And because of the FREE AGENT MARKET pass rushers are always available... So a team doesn't have to depend on finding one in the draft.
