[NYPost] Rockets could make push for Carmelo (UPDATE: Blog post)

Thanks for the explanation torocan. I willingly admit I do not understand the CBA. I just cannot retain all of the mind numbing detail. Probably because I chose not to. And when I post anything about it I immediately get corrected by Bima. If it continually hurts, don't do it. LOL

 

I like the idea of Melo on this team, but I think its a bit simplistic to call Melo a "floor spacer". This chart really doesn't tell you what types of sets are being run, and what types of shots Melo is getting within the defense which is both complementary and potentially problematic at the same time.

Alot more comes with Melo rather than just putting him in the corner to add spacing. You really have to be able to let Melo be Melo in order to get this type of production which is going to almost surely impact the other stars on this team for better or worse.

Melo just isn't a guy you can just plug in a system and expect him to fall in line. There would need to be tweaks to the system to be able to create ball movement, and ways to detour over-isolation's.

However as you see here, Melo is excellent at scoring from all different areas of the court, and if you factor in how he is getting these shots off (iso's, dribble & shoot, and alot of catch & shoot), you'd have to think that his efficiency in the Rockets offense (if he's bought in) would just go up even more if the ball is moving.... but that's a big if... especially in year 1.

 

I get what you're saying. Interpreting a legal contract isn't everyone's cup of tea, let alone their wheelhouse.

Still, it's worthwhile to learn the CBA at least in basic mathematical terms as it makes very clear what the pro's and con's are of each move in terms of cap flexibility and financial penalties.

For example, going over the Salary cap for Parsons probably isn't a big deal, it just restricts your ability to sign free agents and puts some limits on trades in terms of incoming and outgoing salary. MOST teams willingly go over the salary cap to field a strong team.

Where it gets really dicey is when a team has to make a decision to go over the Luxury tax threshold. That's when the financial penalties start *really* piling up, especially if they're locked into multiple year contracts where the normal increase in player salaries get multiplied by the repeater tax as time passes.

Teams are *much* more reluctant to go far past the Luxury tax threshold as the cost implications can range from "ouch" to "OMFG WTH?!".

For example, let's take the example of Parsons.

You could sign him and go over the Luxury tax by let's say $4.5M. In the initial years the luxury tax penalty is a paltry $1.50 per $1.00.

Let's say you pay Parsons $10M.

Parsons actual salary - $10M.
Parsons Luxury Tax hit - $4.5M x $1.50, or $6.75M for the first three years assuming they're under the luxury tax at point of signing.

The total cost to the Team in terms of the bottom line would be $16.75M per year in the first 3 years.

However, IF the team is over the Luxury tax by the same amount in year 4 (3 out of 4 previous years), the repeater tax kicks in. Instead of paying $1.50 per $1.00 of salary, now you're talking $2.50 per $1.00.

Parsons actual salary - $10M
Parsons year 4 Luxury Tax - $4.5M x $2.50, or $11.75M

Total cost to team $21.75M

Of course, that's assuming that Parsons just nudges you over the cap. Let's imagine that the team is *exactly* at the Luxury tax threshold and Parson's entire salary is over the cap. Now you're looking at crossing 2 brackets of the tax.

So, for the first 3 years you're looking at normal Luxury Tax.

First $5M - $7.5M in tax ($5M salary + $7.5M in tax = $12.5M)
Second $5M - $8.75M in tax ($1.75/$1.00, $5M in salary + $8.75M in tax)

Total cost to team per year in first 3 years - $21.25M

Then in year 4...

Parsons year 4 salary - $10M
Parsons year 4 luxury tax, first $5M - $12.50M ($2.50/$1.00)
Parsons year 4 luxury tax, second $5M - $13.75M ($2.75/$1.00)

Total cost to team in year 4 - $26.25M

Add all that up, and you're looking at 4yrs, $40M is now costing the team's coffers 4yrs/$90M.

Of course, this is simplified. Parsons cap hit would not be exactly at the threshold, and if they're over the luxury tax Parsons could easily be stretching into a 3rd tier of the tax ($2.50/$1.00 if you're >$10M over). And this doesn't factor in the normal annual raises (which would increase the tax hit even more).

It was the Luxury tax implications which made the Knicks and Bulls blink when it came to matching Morey's offer, not the salaries themselves. The Knicks were fulling willing to match Lin's reported offer of $9M in year 4, which on it's own had luxury tax implications of approximately $15M in salary plus tax.

However, once Morey bumped the offer to $14M in year 3, the salary + tax hit to the Knicks would have exceeded $35M.

The Bulls were in the same boat.

Not understanding the impact of the CBA leads to incorrect assumptions about team Front Office motivations. Ultimately, teams are businesses and when the Luxury Tax is involved, you can turn even a very profitable team into a money losing one very easily.

 

I'm not sure if Melo would upgrade this Rockets team, as currently constituted……

But then again, I had a similar opinion about Dwight… Turned out to be wrong…..

 

How does that Visa commercial go? May I amend it?

"Parsons' contract cost to team? $21.75 million dollars.

"Parsons' plus Carmelo Anthony's value to Rockets? Priceless.

"Championships. It's everywhere you want to be."


I exaggerate, but I guess the idea is, if Les can buy a championship or two, the value would be unbelievable.

That said, if we could trade for Carmelo (without giving up Parsons, of course)? Probably worth the risk.

If we could find takers / suckers to help us clear the cap space? Carmelo might slide down my list of potential free agents to pursue this summer.

 

Thanks torocan. You are a gem. I have a basic understanding of the CBA, but I prefer to depend on people like you and Bima for the details. Maybe I have killed to many brain cells in my life. I prefer to investigate other topics. Best to you and yours!

 

A simple analysis of shots available for the starting lineup, adding a $22M player versus depth, and overlapping skills (fit) all say that you are right.

 

How is it in your thinking, that there is enough shots for Love but not for Melo?

 

There certainly is not enough shots for Love on the current roster. He is just positionally a better fit than Melo. Love brings a different skill set than Melo and does not overlap so much with Harden's skill set. IMHO the best fit currently with the Rockets at the PF position is Bosh. He brings so much more to the court than scoring. Asik, Lin, Covington and a first for Bosh? Nah. Will never happen. Oh wait. Millsap. Never mind.

 

Along with those single digit scoring games, he also brings to you the upgrades version of Easter eggs..... Gooses.....

Bosh is a better 2nd option than third. Rather have a pure jump shooter than him.

 

What skill set do you think Kevin Love brings that Carmelo doesn't? They would have the exact same role: stretch four - with stints at the 3 or the 5 depending which guy you have.

Love would rebound the ball a little better and draw fouls slightly better but Melo would allow more rest for Harden/Parsons and slide to the three for stretches.

The difference is not that big considering how big of an upgrade either would be to Terrence Jones.

http://stats.nba.com/playerVsPlayer.html?PlayerID=2546&VsPlayerID=201567

 

Late in the 4th quarter, and in the playoffs, when the score is close and the Rockets need to execute their half court offense, having someone like Carmelo on the floor with Harden and Howard....it would be huge.

 

BTW, I firmly believe Les would be willing to pay the Luxury Tax on the Rockets if they are fielding a championship roster. Harden/Howard/Anthony (Parsons etc) is a "win now" championship roster.

 

Howard/Smith
Anthony/Motiejunas
Parsons/Covington
Harden/Garcia
Beverly/Canaan

We probably need to trade Parsons for a shutdown wing that can hit a 3 at that point and maybe another piece for depth.

Lin+Asik+Jones+2014 first rounder is fair.

 

With time and experience, Parsons can easily become that player. All we'd need at that point is a 3-and-D player off the bench, and we'd have to be considered favorites to get to the WCF.

 

No question in my mind that the Rockets won't have any problems filling in the gaps if they make a move for Anthony. They have the 2014 NYK 2nd round pick, their 2015 1st/2nd + rights to a number of foreign players. I think one of those 2 foreign players the Rockets got from Portland (Thomas Robinson trade), was going to come over this summer?

Morey will fill out the roster with cheap rookie draft picks and old veterans taking less salary for a chance to get a ring.

 

We'll get the best of that bunch...what a great opportunity the Rockets might be facing.

 

This is exactly how I feel too. The people who are clamoring for Love, but hating on Melo don't understand the fit. The only MAJOR difference between the two is age, and if that's enough to argue for one player and against the other, then so be it.

 

An interesting question that I did not immediately have an answer for. Overall on defense they initially seem like they are identical. However Melo plays next to Chandler, perhaps as good of a paint protector as exists in the NBA. Love plays with whom? I cannot think of a defensive presence in Minny except Rubio on the perimeter.



On offense Love is more productive than Melo. Love's TS% is at least higher than the Rockets team as a whole. Melo's sadly is not.



But then there is size. Melo is a PF currently who will be pushed around by other power forwards in the paint. At least Love is of adequate size.

And finally there is rebounding. Love would fix a big hole on the defensive rebounding side. Melo? Not so much.

And then there is money. $. $$$$$$$$$$$. Love at max is significantly cheaper than Melo at max. I have said repeatedly that Melo is worthwhile at less than $16M. Do you hold out hope that Melo would sign for anywhere around that number?

 

The only problem is Love has never expressed an interest of being in Houston. Love is a LA guy.