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The Texans #1 Draft Pick Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Brando2101, Feb 7, 2014.

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What should the Texans do with the #1 Pick?

  1. Trade it Away

    14.5%
  2. Draft Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

    1.2%
  3. Draft Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

    0.6%
  4. Draft Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

    27.5%
  5. Draft Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

    30.1%
  6. Draft Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn

    1.0%
  7. Draft Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

    25.1%
  1. endoftheworld

    endoftheworld Member

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    For once we agree

    He sees qb talent that we can work with in the later rounds

    However you should check out Bridgewater at the nfl network and a preview of his Gruden camp stuff.
     
  2. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Quarterback conundrum harks back to 2011 class

    This is the story of eight NFL teams that went into the 2011 draft with a quarterback need.

    It also could serve as a roadmap for those that go into the 2014 draft in that very position.

    At the end of last week, a few of the final pre-draft turns of the 2014 quarterback carousel were taken. Ryan Fitzpatrick signed in Houston, which helped push the trade of Matt Schaub to Oakland over the goal line. With the Raiders out of the quarterback trade market, the Jets finally cut Mark Sanchez loose and brought in Mike Vick.

    The end result of that, and moves made over the previous three weeks, is this: The teams in the top 10 aren't beholden to take quarterbacks with their respective picks. The Texans have Fitzpatrick. The Jaguars have Chad Henne. The Browns have Brian Hoyer. The Raiders have Schaub. The Buccaneers signed Josh McCown. The Vikings re-signed Matt Cassel.

    All except for Hoyer will make more than $3.5 million in 2014, and all can serve as a bridge to whomever their respective franchises' quarterbacks of the future end up being, whether they come in the first round, the second round or next year.

    "All those teams in the top 10, they're all in position to draft a top-three quarterback. And all those teams, when you look at their offseasons, they needed to address the quarterback position and they all did," one AFC personnel director said. "And all could select one of these quarterbacks, but they also have the flexibility, as they work through the final stages of the process. No. 1, it's insurance. No. 2, it's flexibility."

    Here's where you go back to 2011, and look at the Panthers, Titans, Jaguars, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Dolphins and Redskins. The Panthers took Cam Newton first. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings took Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder at the eighth, 10th and 12th spots, respectively. The Bengals waited, taking A.J. Green fourth overall, and Andy Dalton in the second round. The Niners did the same, going with Aldon Smith at No. 7, and Colin Kaepernick one pick after Dalton. The Dolphins and Redskins punted entirely, respectively taking Mike Pouncey and Ryan Kerrigan in the first round of 2011 -- before both going QB in Round 1 the following year (Ryan Tannehill and Robert Griffin).

    The Niners and Bengals, the teams that patiently waited until the second round, have made the playoffs every year since. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings all have fired coaches.

    The lesson here is not hard to learn.

    Tempting as it might be to take a quarterback in the first round, clubs can be prone to manufacturing franchise players at the position when they aren't really there. And this could be another one of those years where the draft class is exceptionally strong -- as it was in 2011, given that 12 of the top 16 picks already have gone on to make a Pro Bowl -- but with serious questions hovering over the top guys at the most important position.

    "I'd be scared to death (to take one of the quarterbacks high)," one NFC college scouting director said. "Teams like Jacksonville and Oakland have to debate that. You look at, say, an AJ McCarron, and he has traits like some of the really good ones, and you can get that guy at the end of the first round or top of the second and develop him, with not as much pressure as someone taken with a top-five pick. And then with the high pick, you take the best player. There's merit to it."

    The hit rate on first-round quarterbacks has never been near perfect, but as the importance of the position has ascended, the bottom has dropped out on the percentages. Nine quarterbacks were drafted in the first round from 2009 to 2011. Four of them (Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow and Gabbert) have been jettisoned by their drafting teams, and two of those guys are among the four (Sanchez, Tebow, Newton, Matthew Stafford) who have started playoff games among the group.

    The risk of failure is high in any year. And there are more questions this year than most.

    "Just average," is how one NFC personnel exec described this QB class. "The kid from Central Florida (Blake Bortles) has a chance to be really good. (Johnny) Manziel scares me -- he's 50-50. (Teddy) Bridgewater reminds me a little of Byron Leftwich, in that he's a little soft. (Derek) Carr's just good. You take one of them in the third round, you're happy with that. The problem is if you really want one of these guys, you almost have to take them in the first."

    Several high-level evaluators said four players appear to stand out in this year's class: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney, Buffalo OLB Khalil Mack, Auburn OT Greg Robinson and Clemson WR Sammy Watkins.

    The NFC personnel exec opined that Bortles, if given a pure grade based on his potential, would probably fall in a cluster of eight or so players behind those top four. The rest, he said, might not be any better than second-round talents.

    But quarterbacks almost always get overdrafted -- mostly when a team likes a guy enough, and then gets fearful he won't last long enough for the club to play it patient. And so it seems a good bet someone will be rolling the dice in May on a player many others aren't sold on.

    "I'm a big Blake Bortles fan -- he has the 'it' factor in the way he carries himself. I can see that helping him succeed, and he can probably still gain 20 pounds," one AFC offensive coordinator said. "The other guys I'm really scared of. I didn't like Bridgewater before the workout and I don't like him after it. With the free time he'll have, and the offseason there is at this level, Manziel scares me. It's tough."

    Tough because if you don't have one, you're looking for the guy. And also tough because drafting the wrong guy can be a bigger problem than passing on a group altogether.

    *****

    So the operative question now, after a couple weeks of free agency, is whether or not the league, en masse, is starting to react to past stories of failure.

    The aforementioned additions of veteran backup quarterbacks, who can serve as a bridge for a year or two, might be early evidence that it's happening.

    "None of these quarterbacks that are there are the kinds of guys you jump up and down about," the NFC college director said. "They all have their flaws and question marks."

    Punting can be risky, too. Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota both will be eligible for the 2015 draft, and each has promise. But maybe the guy the pros like most is Penn State's Christian Hackenberg, who can't declare for another two years.

    The fact is, eventually, you have to find your guy somewhere. Some sell out at the top of the draft. Others, like Seattle, keep throwing darts (Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Flynn) until they hit (Russell Wilson) while building the team to surround the eventual leader.

    There isn't a simple answer here. And when the draft class is strong at other positions -- as this year's is -- the conundrum is hard to miss.

    "You can talk yourself out of taking the best guy, no doubt," the NFC personnel exec said. "Say you have three guys you like. And these two are better players, but the quarterback, he's gonna touch the ball on every snap. You can talk yourself out of taking a really good player. You'd say, 'We can find a pass rusher, or a corner, but we can't find a quarterback so easily.' And then, you take the wrong guy."

    And the AFC personnel director adds, "If you don't have a quarterback, it's hard to have some level of hope, it can feel like a futile effort. ... But if you miss? You set your franchise back two to three years."

    So the follies of 2011 are easy to spot now, of course. But if you're a club needing a quarterback of the future, it's not exactly an easy misstep to avoid.​
     
  3. Raven

    Raven Member

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    If the Texans keep the pick (and I think they will), it sure looks like Clowney or Bortles. Manziel better bring his A+ game on Thursday if he wants to be in the mix.
     
  4. Fullcourt

    Fullcourt Member

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    J.R., Does Bovada have the odds on the #1 pick?
     
  5. Fullcourt

    Fullcourt Member

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    I'm being serious here, do you (not just 'you') really think pro days hold that much weight? I'm not a draft expert, but it just seems to me that game tape should speak mountains of volumes more than 1 simple catch session in shorts. That and private visits where the coaches can really sink their teeth into the prospect.

    It just seems implausible that a pro day/combine can really make much of a difference in blue chip talent. It makes a lot more since for guys fighting to go from UDFA to 5th round or so.
     
  6. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Not that I've seen recently, no.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Member

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    If Manziel doesn't screw the pooch on his pro day, be ready for all the talk to move away from Bortles and towards Manziel.

    All this draft talk is less about the flavor of the month and more about the flavor of the week.
     
  8. endoftheworld

    endoftheworld Member

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    Montana had poor pro day and he was drafted in the 3rd

    Manning and Ryan had underwhelming pro days and they were top 5 picks

    So who knows
     
  9. Chilly_Pete

    Chilly_Pete Member

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  10. Bigsupervise

    Bigsupervise Member

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    Game tapes shows that manziel just runs around like a chicken with his head cutoff instead of running the play and going thru read progressions. We saw that last year with Case, so why would the texans or anyone draft that in the first round. Bortles is the pick
     
  11. Rick Rambis

    Rick Rambis Member

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    This is a played out opinion and many will tell you is flat out wrong.
     
  12. ipaman

    ipaman Member

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  13. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Basically the crowd that wants a QB picked in the first round has to hope that BOB was completely lying when he was essentially echoing some of the same things that several of us have been saying for months now, that there isn't much separation between the top several prospects, he put the number at 10. If he actually thinks that, there is 0 chance of a QB being taken in the first
     
  14. shaggylambda

    shaggylambda Member

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    I don't know who will go 1.1 but I'm begining to think that it will not be QB. If i had to bet on it, I think we pick up MacCarron or Giroppolo at 2.1.
     
  15. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>My first mock draft will be Wednesday. I think I'll have the Texans taking Jadeveon Clowney. What do you think?</p>&mdash; John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/McClain_on_NFL/statuses/448215283707412481">March 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    I think you're gonna have to eat the newspaper if they do.

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I believe the Texans will use the top pick on a QB unless they think they can get him by trading down a couple or three spots.</p>&mdash; John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/McClain_on_NFL/statuses/448216114422886400">March 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
  16. Dubious

    Dubious Member

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    Texans compensatory picks
    Posted 1 hour ago
    The Houston Texans have been awarded three compensatory picks in the 2014 NFL Draft, the NFL announced today.

    The NFL Management Council determined the Texans will receive the 35th pick in the fourth round (135th overall), 35th pick in the sixth round (211th overall) and the 41st pick in the seventh round (256th overall and final pick of the draft).

    Fourth round – 35th-135
    Sixth round – 35th-211
    Seventh round – 41st-256
     
  17. ipaman

    ipaman Member

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    DAMN!!!!, the Ravens got (1) 3rd, (2) 4ths, and (1) 5th. 4 is the max allowed for award. Ozzie is a genius.

    Also to those wondering, you cannot trade these picks.
     
  18. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    what are our picks are as is? Number #1 then what?2nd ? 3rd?
     
  19. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    1, 33, 65, 101, 135*, 141, 177, 181#, 211*, 216, 256*

    * = compensatory pick
    # = Raiders pick from Schaub trade.

    FWIW, we get to pick Mr. Irrelevant again this year with our last pick.
     
    1 person likes this.

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