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Defensive Analysis part 2

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jbasket, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. Stats

    Stats Member

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    In this case, do you think it's mainly a player IQ issue or a coaching issue for that 60% correct rotations/positioning?
     
  2. jtr

    jtr Member

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    NBA defense is complex. It takes many young players years to figure it out. Some never do. I doubt it is a coaching issue since D-Mo got it (Euro League may have helped), Parsons always got it, Bev got it. I think it is a maturity issue. Until Jones understands it he will never be the player he could be.
     
  3. Nanisteru

    Nanisteru Rookie

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    I'm not denying that assignments were made it is just that we don't know what the assignments were. What you are stating is not a fact but subjective speculation. From what I saw, Lin was motioning for Harden to cover Ray Allen and Bev was yelling at Harden to cover him.

    Also, you can see after Ray Allen made the open 3 that Beverley quickly showed his frustation towards Harden: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkIZYuHt3mA#t=18

    Harden failed to cover Allen on that play and left him wide open. However his defensive mental lapses alone did not contribute to the loss as Lin also did a poor job defensively.
     
  4. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Hey OP! You should consider starting a thread on basic defensive principals/strategies comprising modern NBA defense. The 2.9. Tagging. How to handle offensive screens (shooting etc.), proper positioning to guide the ball to the sidelines/baseline, what are the strategies used against the P&R etc. I would do it (and have been threatening to do it for a year) but I have this reservoir of ill will on the GARM.
     
  5. ThisVoice

    ThisVoice Member

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    What was Beverley communicating with Lin at the beginning of that play?
     
  6. RoxBeliever

    RoxBeliever Member

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    Maybe Lin'll be back on the bench after this.

    McHale does a poor job of reading situations. He'll go to something because it worked in previous games, but he's not reading how the current game is going.

    Please don't over-use and misuse the small ball line-up down the stretch again, McHale. I still shudder to remember those Scola-PPat line-ups he trotted out during that 6-game losing streak to end our Dragic season. And last season, we also faltered down the stretch.

    This year, we had a hot stretch but now we're coming back down to earth once more. The CHI was the worst. Coaches need to use their brains so that we don't go into a prolonged tailspin as in the past two years.
     
  7. BackNthDay

    BackNthDay Member

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    It amazes me the defender on the ball doesn't shade to the shooters side (ie., Ray Allen), the defense should be shouting Ray right or left and then force a looping or wide pass to Ray giving the defense a chance to catch up.

    Our defensive mind set is horrible, and I Kelvin Sampson refuses to play Jlin and would sit Harden if he didn't play D. McFail is into his rotations and refuse to believe what his eyes is showing him/
     
  8. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Your post fails on so many different levels. I would not have taken umbrage except for the McFail reference. Childish. A moniker used without appropriate reference. An easy way out for the weak of mind.

    In the larger context defense in the NBA is not trivial. It takes years to learn. It takes further years to be able to thwart a wily veteran like Allen. You assume that a bunch of newbies like Bev and Lin and the rest of them (even Harden) are going to be constantly up to the task of defending a HOF player like Allen. Dream on. They are not there yet.

    Statistical analysis. That is what McHale is functioning on. Morey's statistical analysis. If you do not understand the implications you should not be walking on the ground you are currently stepping on.

    Get a grip. The season is 82 games long. You are panicked. Take a Xanax.
     
  9. jbasket

    jbasket Member

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    I wonder why we are too focused on Lin? Just kidding. I was rather bold in the tl;dr section, but it had to be said. It was a very poor showing by Lin on the defensive side.

    While some stats may say Lin is a mediocre defender, when you go through the tape, he is actually pretty woeful. His effort is there, but results greatly inconsistent.

    Overall team defense has been more consistent. It is easier to do bad than good, the opposing team players are paid to make you look bad.

    While Dmo has had a good two-game run since I started this, and Jones has been poor, games such as when Jones guarded Rudy Gay on his 11-37 shooting illustrate his defensive ability/potential. Also, Jones can switch pick and rolls, while Dmo cannot. While I could break down every second of every game, that is just not time-wise possible. Both players have their pros and cons.

    That being said, Dmo has been balling on defence. Hindsight is 20/20, but he should have finished the game. Dmo is starting to "get it".

    I would say that the positioning is dependent on effort. If you don't sprint on close-outs, what is the point of understanding who you should pick up? I agree, there is a much larger mental aspect, but if you imagine a probability venn diagram, there is much overlap between effort and rotations.

    Agree with middle penetration; when this happens, everybody is basically one pass away. Open layup or open three are the best case scenarios. Both are bad.

    Care to show something that proves this? You see them yelling because he had a brain fart. However, I need to see him running to the corner to guard Allen. Not in the replay, or during the game did I see this.


    player IQ.

    Parsons still has a bit of work to do. Jones has a lot of work to do though, agreed.

    I will be doing more games, including tonight, then we could draw more concrete conclusions from a larger sample size.

    Fact 1: we know what the assignments were. Dwight on Bosh, Parsons on Lebron, James on Wade, Lin on Allen, and Bev on Cole. Why do you keep saying we don't know? We do know; this is not speculation. It was this way the rest of the game. I can bet my left nut they had the assignments in the huddle. Parsons was aware Dmo subbed out, so was Harden, so was Bev. They knew what they were doing. Why did Lin not?

    Saying that Beverley is showing frustration to Harden is actual speculation. Who knows where he was looking exactly? This is similar to the poster saying Harden was looking at Dwight when he said "This is my city".

    Most of the work I do is during the game, and creating the thread. Basic principles might take a while; I'll think about it. Maybe I'll do a very basic, then expand in responses. I'll think about it. It is just so variable; every situation can be looked at differently.

    Most likely telling him he is guarding the wrong guy. Probably a little more up front about it though.

    How does McHale have anything to do with this thread?

    And actually, small-ball was the way to go last night. Yes, Dmo on Allen or Lebron is not a good strategy in the long run, even though it worked for a bit. Regression to the mean.

    It doesn't matter where Ray Allen is to the ball defender. The ball defender is supposed to not allow middle penetration; Ray Allen doesn't matter.

    For defence, I think it is mostly eye test. I have yet to see a defensive stat that really hones in the finer essence of defence. Stats can't quantify, say, a negative effect for BOTH Parsons and Lin on the backdoor by Allen. I may stand corrected, though.
     
  10. red32

    red32 Member

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    The yelling/directing was before the the play started. It seems like Beverley waved Lin to come up and Harden didn't want to. As the play started, Harden took a look at Allen but didn't tried to cover right away.

    If you need to see it, replay it League Pass.
     
  11. RoxOn RoxOff

    RoxOn RoxOff Member

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    What I dislike more than LOF/LOH shouting matches is some people masquerading opinions as facts. There were definitely communication issues in that play but to put it on Lin presumptively when it is just based speculation is embarrassing.

    Some people have a low threshold for "analysis".
     
  12. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Not defending Lin here because he was horrible defensively last night against Allen. But that 3pt shot by Allen out of the timeout isn't all on Lin, not even close. It was clear that Lin went to guard the inbound play for whatever reason. Both him and Bev pointed back for someone to pickup Allen (Harden). Even if that was a mistake by Lin (and it's very possible), Harden has a clear sight of what's going on and should be aware that a mistake has happen and recover back to guard Allen. Instead Harden stayed on top to watch Wade dribble up. This is a problem with Harden and Lin too often... they watch until it's too late.
     
  13. jtr

    jtr Member

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    What you are looking for is a combination of RAPM and lineup +/-. But of course it will not tell us how Parsons and Lin played against Allen. That is not how statistics work.
     
  14. jtr

    jtr Member

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    From my eye test D-Mo is correctly gauging tag distance on perimeter players.

    Would you pay more attention to P&R defense? I have my own score chart on it, but I would be enormously interested in your take.

    Your view of positioning and effort is certainly valid. However effort alone will seldom get a player into the correct position defensively. Understanding defensive schemes and positioning is the reason Battier is still in the league.

    I certainly am looking forward to your next post.
     
  15. jbasket

    jbasket Member

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    I appreciate the discussion on the Ray Allen three; however, I think there are other things to talk about. Agree to disagree.

    Lin never was in the corner. I will not comment further on the incident. I have presented my analysis; take it or leave it.

    You really think I am a LOH?

    You cannot argue against who they were guarding the rest of the game. You cannot argue against the fact that everybody else on the team was on the same page. You cannot argue against the fact that teams spend hours preparing matchups. These are constants.

    Embarrassing is how Lin should feel after that mental error. However, next topic. I am done discussing this instance. I did not intend this to be a Lin-based thread either.

    While I am a fan of offensive stats, I just don't see stats that are good defensive indicators.

    At the same time, Lin should of helped Harden out and pressure Wade if so. He didn't. I am still keeping my original thought process. The final error is his mental mistake. Like I said previously, I would get benched immediately if I had a mental error like what Lin had.

    I agree; Dmo is balling.

    I look at how the shots are affected. I find it too difficult to count mistakes if a shot was not taken, so it muddies up PnR. This is also the first time "recording", so I am working on my efficiency of getting down thoughts.

    Without a doubt; bball iq is how I make a living. I think it is just different ways of saying the same principles.
     

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