Ukraine Protests

Europe needs to bite the bullet and sanction Russia. No Russian nat gas can be replaced by nat gas exported good ol U.S. of A.

 

I do not care one way or another really, just want to point out that what many people in the world see how this is happening. We are always right, they are always wrong.

 

In the last 15 years I don't think McCain has ever said in any geopolitical crisis that military force SHOULD NOT be used.

I don't think there is any chance that we will see US troops in the Ukraine and Crimea.

 

I don't know how you can be so sure about this.

Russia's Special Ops Invasion of Ukraine Has Begun

Putin appears to be using elite commandos—Spetsnaz—to spearhead his stealth move into Crimea and, perhaps, beyond.

Forget the military forces massed on the border and brief incursions into Ukrainian territory and airspace. Russia is invading Ukraine in the shadows. The same special operations forces that appear to be rigging the election in Crimea are quietly escalating tensions inside other parts of eastern Ukraine.

This week the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested a group of people led by a Ukrainian citizen who were said to be scoping out three of its most crucial military divisions in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson.

In Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, press reports from the ground say that Russian provocateurs have attacked Ukrainians who organized anti-Russian street protests.

The forces behind these operations, according to U.S. officials briefed on the updates in Ukraine, are likely the Spetsnaz, the Russian military’s highly trained saboteurs, spies and special operations forces who may change the face—and the borders—of Ukraine without once showing the Russian flag on their uniforms. Or, for that matter, without wearing any particular uniforms at all.

Few politicians in Kiev seemed to have any doubts that the results of the referendumSunday will bring Crimea under the Kremlin's control.

In 1979 the Soviet Union was able to take over Afghanistan with less than 700 Spetsnaz soldiers. These same operatives are now spreading out over Ukraine, according to U.S. officials who spoke to The Daily Beast on condition of anonymity. One of these officials stressed that while U.S. intelligence assesses there are more Spetsnaz forces surging into Ukraine, there is no reliable number on how many are inside the country and ultimately whether their presence is a prelude to a more formal invasion.

On March 5, Jane's Defense Weekly ran an analysis of Russian troop movements near Ukraine and noted similarities with the USSR's special operations campaign in 1979 before the full invasion of the country. "A significant indicator of Russia's next steps would be the arrival in Crimea of personnel from Moscow's GCHQ-NSA equivalent organization, previously titled the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information (FAPSI), to carry forward the situation," Jane's wrote. In the last seven weeks, two recordings of high profile telephone conversations featuring European Union and U.S. officials have mysteriously surfaced on the Internet, suggesting Russia's technical intelligence services have been active during the Ukraine crisis

Of course, the situation in Ukraine is fluid, and the intelligence coming from the area is incomplete. Most analysts say only Putin and a small circle of advisers will decide whether Russia's current military incursions become a full-fledged invasion.

On the ground in Ukraine, such confusion reigns that the role of Spetsnaz is hard to confirm. But its involvement would come as no surprise.

In Kiev’s Maidan Square, there’s the camp set up by veterans who fought for the Soviets in Afghanistan when Ukraine was still part of the USSR. Twenty-five years ago, Ukrainian and Russian soldiers belonged to the same army; they were dying shoulder to shoulder in Afghanistan. So the Ukrainian veterans watch closely and understand only too well the tactics used against them now.

For the last two weeks, Oleg Mikhnyuk, the commander of a group of veterans calling themselves the Afghan Hundred, has been receiving reports from southern and eastern Ukraine about the mysterious "Russian presence" on Ukraine's territory. "If in the beginning of March they were just 'little green men' without identity driving armored vehicles all over Crimea, now the invasion is official, as Kherson region is definitely outside of the Russian Black Sea fleet jurisdiction, " Mikhnyuk said. (Putin played his game initially within his self-defined version of a treaty that gives Russia the right to locate military bases in Crimea.)

This evening the crowd in the Afghan veterans’ camp grew quiet as one of their senior officers spoke on his cell phone. Earlier in the day, the foreign ministry of Ukraine declared that the Russian invasion had gone beyond the Crimean peninsula, and the ministry demanded immediate withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukrainian territory.

On the previous night, locals of Strelkovoye village complained to Afghan veterans about Russian military helicopters circling over Kherson region. On Saturday morning about 50 militants in Russian army uniforms occupied a natural gas substation there. "But our forces immediately reacted and pushed them off our territory," Mikhnyuk said, expressing hopes that no "provocation could cause bloodshed in the future.”

Meanwhile, Petr Mekhed at the Ukrainian ministry of defense declared that "the statement about the invasion came from foreign ministry, and the defense ministry cannot confirm the invasion.”

Meanwhile, reports continue of "unknown armed men" kidnapping Ukrainian civil society activists, and even anti-Russian activities are suspected as “false flag” operations by Putin’s operatives. Saturday afternoon, an Orthodox priest, Nikolai Kvich, was reportedly kidnapped as he conducted a service in his church in Sevastopol church. At about 8 p.m. dozens of masked men stormed the Moskva Hotel in the Crimean capital of Symferopol. The hotel's visitors were told to stay in their rooms while the men armed with machine guns raided the hotel.

Daily Beast correspondent Jamie Dettmer, who was there, says they may well have been Spetsnaz: “They initially claimed it was an anti-terror exercise and then said it was a false tip off. They were aggressive, waving guns, automatic weaponry with silencers on, and they lashed out at a cameraman with rifle butts. Maybe an exercise in intimidation—we don't know."

Few politicians in Kiev seemed to have any doubts that the results of the referendum Sunday will bring Crimea under the Kremlin's control. The question discussed in political circles continues to be whether Russia will use open military force against Ukrainian army bases outside the peninsula, in the rest of Ukraine. With the Spetsnaz deployed, it may not have to.

 

just a provocation, not an invasion, possibly to capture or repatriate a covert asset

The US should announce it will be selling all it's old A-10's to the Ukraine for $1, delivery to start immediately. Then maybe form a Ukrainian Volunteer Air Force of former US pilots. Russian tank commanders would crap their pants.
( I know, they need air cover)

 

93 % supposedly voted to join Russia (Crimea).

 

I am pretty sure about this. The US is sick of war after 13 years of it. I strongly doubt the vast majority of Americans want to see a new commitment of troops to go and fight a major military power in their own back yard. The Obama Admin. is showing no great interest in committing US troops to the conflict and outside of John McCain I doubt most Republicans would. All the rhetoric criticizing the Obama Admin. actions have more to do with criticizing Obama than really wanting to use the military to confront Russia.

I will backtrack a little bit on my statement that US troops in training positions might be possible but I don't think there is much chance of US combat troops in the Ukraine.

 

The Ukrainians and Tatars did not vote. They boycotted the vote.

 

What if Putin continues this land grab?

 

The Russian's couldn't care less if the Ukrainian air force received A-10s. Without air superiority, the A-10s don't stand a chance against the Russian SU-27, Su-30, Su-35, Mig-29s in the air and SAMs on the ground.

 

lol 95% "vote" to join Russia. Has there ever been a more joke of an election in the history of the world?

I say let Crimea go to Russia and let the rest of Ukraine move toward the EU. Russia will take as much as Ukraine as they can but the rest of the world will have to decided when enough is enough and a war will have to happen. I'm sure Poland and all the other countries around that area are nervous.

 

Yeah, that's why I wrote exactly that in parentheses.


I think a Russian Crimea is the acceptable endgame for Putin, but a partitioned East and West Ukraine is probably on his wish list though. But it's probably not worth an invasion and occupation. He could probably pull off the invasion but the occupation would be tough.

It would be a full out civil war in the East and he would face worldwide sanctions. The Saudi's would probably open up the spigots and negate some of the energy blackmail. NATO could rally troops, certainly supplies and lots of covert aid. This on top of propping up Bashar Al Assad ?

I can't see it. The Crimea is easy and doable, and probably would be accepted after some time. An invasion would probably end up being fatal for Putin.

 

Congrats to Russia, complete victory there.

 

lol, I think Putin just owned everyone, especially the EU. If the EU doesn't immediately start working on getting Ukraine into the EU within the year, then it's truly a divided entity at its core.

 

Putin has designs on several parts of Ukraine but an all out military invasion is most likely not going to happen. US sanctions probably won't do much against Russia but if the EU really feels like Putin is out of control they might be willing to risk their own short term economic health to sanction Russia which would hurt Russia.

War I think is one of the last things that US, EU and even Russia wants as a true battle between superpowers would at the minimum cost thousands of lives and economically devastating to the global economy. At worst it could be billions of deaths.

Putin is aggressive and wants to restore Russia to Soviet power but I doubt he is crazy.

 

For Ukrainian people's sake, if the Russians do decide to invade I hope the Ukrainians don't resort to guerrilla warfare/insurgency. When foreign countries supply military aide to insurgents/freedom fighters, they really don't give a shlt about what happens to the country or the native population, all they care about is maximizing annoyance for their enemies and depleting their resources. This applies equally to the West, Middle Eastern country, Russia, everybody.

Asymmetrical warfare against a powerful military never have and never will end up well for the local population. Afghanistan was completely trashed in the West supplied insurgency against the Soviets (not to mention millions of civilian death + over a hundred thousand combatant death), Iraq was completely trashed in the Iran supplied insurgency against the US (over one hundred thousand civilian death + close to 40 thousand combatant death), Syria now is getting completely trashed in the West & Saudi supplied insurgency against Assad. (close to 200 thousand civilian death + 50 thousand combatant death)

Just look at Homs now, the whole city is reduced to rubble.

 

The suckers in Ukraine should have never given up their nukes. Trust the EU or the US and you get conquered by Russia, that should be the lesson from all of this.

 

Yep, DeGaulle said the same thing I believe. No American president would sacrifice getting New York nuked to save Paris or Kiev. Alliances are safe, but never guaranteed. The nuclear umbrella doesn't do a whole lot, especially because of MAD.

 

Aside from having our imperialistic ambitions hurt or for fans of a new Cold War, I really don't see how it affects the average American if Crimea decides to be part of a Russian Confederation..

The main negative I see is that it will be used by neo-cons and their buds in the military industrial complex as an excuse to spend hundreds of billions more on "defense". They might even be able to propagandize Americans into parting with the Russians on Syria and then they can have themselves a juicy Syrian intervention and perhaps even the grand prize --a multi-trillion dollar jack pot -- war with Iran.

That will be a b**** for me and other Americans to pay for that.

Perhaps it is time to invest in "defense" stocks.