Analytics works in the regular season. It's 50/50 moreyball will work in the playoffs. I've seen analytic fail so many times in basketball post-season. I'm leaning towards moreyball succeeding in the post season because Dwight Howard and James Harden will make it possible to for their teammates to perform.
But do you agree if they win 2 of the next 3, 60 wins is a lot more plausible of an outcome? It's a big if for sure, but at least we'll know in less than a week
Honestly.... at the beginning of this year, with all the talent in the West, I picked the Rockets to be somewhere between 48 and 52 wins. So to even be talking mid to high 50's in an even more deep and impressive West than one would think WITHOUT any major trades we thought were coming is pretty freaking unbelievable.
I don't get the pessimism. 3 of the toughest games that we have remaining are this week. After that we really only have 3 more. Win 2 out of 3 this week and 60 wins is attainable just by playing really well like we have been. Granted if we don't lose to both OKC and Miami, and lose in Chicago - we're not going to get there. But isn't it exciting that if we win tonight it starts to look very possible?
Its not a video game. Its real life basketball, and its inevitable the Rockets will drop a few duds here and there. Those just happen.... look at OKC losing to the Lakers the other day, and letting Jodie Meeks drop 40 on them... stuff happens every once in awhile, and the Rockets are not immune to that. Most good to great teams are going to win about 75 to 80% of the games they are supposed to. The Rockets are somewhere between good to great which means if you go 50% on the games they are evenly or slightly out-matched in, and win 75% of the games they are supposed to win. So I think a pretty fair to conservative projection would be to win about 12 of the next 16 games putting them at around 56 wins. Which is still pretty damn good, and definitely over-producing where they are from a roster, youth, & cap standpoint in comparison to other top 10 teams.
At this point, I'm more concerned with how we finish. I hope the final standings go this way in the West 1. SA 2. OKC 3. Clippers 4. Rockets That way you avoid OKC or Clippers until the WCF.
It isn't pessimism, it is just that there are 19 games left and the Rockets already have 19 loses. They have to go 16-3 to get to 60 wins and I don't care if you are playing Milwaukee every night, that is a lot to ask of a young team. Expecting anyteam to go a month and a half winning 85% of there games is tough. It is possible, but I would say it is less than 10%.
This team has been sweeping lesser competition - I think our last mediocre team loss was to Atlanta back in Jan - and that's the only one of the year. It's entirely possible we could win all 12 the way we are playing. Right now we are peaking - there are 19 games left. If we stay in this grove - there is no reason to think we can do it. But tonight is huge, this week is huge. You win 2 out of 3 this week, and the schedule is cupcake until the end of March. Let's say we go 2-1 this week, then win our next 5 cupcake games. That's possible right? Well that puts us at 51-20 with 11 games left. Let's see if we can get there.
I think 10% is pretty realistic. But after this week, if we go 2-1, I'd say it's more like 30%. I never said it will happen, I am only saying how it could happen.
I think every game is important. The reality is, there is a possible chance to make it to the finals and having hca against Miami or Indiana is crucial.
60 wins would be the ultimate regular season monument to achieve for sure.... its there if they keep putting the peddle to the metal I agree... there is no reason why they couldn't get there with sustaining a high level of play and getting a little luck these next 3 games. However, going into this final stretch of the season I just wouldn't expect it to be at the same level of intensity we have seen the past week, and going into this week (as far as level of play, and playing the starters such heavy minutes). I think you could very well see them take a dive here these next 3 games (OKC, CHI, MIA) and then have some hangover games against sub-par competition afterwards when they have some of these well known trap games. Beating MIA and OKC at home takes a little more than just taking care of your business. That being said, I hope you are right and they stay hot going into the playoffs. It would be a great accomplishment. However right now the #1 focus really has to be on the playoffs. Getting enough wins to avoid that LA Clippers match-up is key #1, and key#2 is health & rest with the starters. All other accomplishments in the regular season take a back seat IMO.
still long way to go... guys look fatigued but so do the other teams... from now whichever team's starters remain healthy shld get best seeds for playoffs
If we win 60 games, we won't have to worry about playing LA, OKC, SA, or Portland in the 1st Round. Let's see how tonight goes.
if they win 2 of the next three, then it's more plausible because A)that's probably the toughest stretch left IIRC and B)it takes them to an officially undeniable contender status because, as tough as it is to beat really good teams on any given night, it's even tougher to beat them when they're trying to prove something.. i just think we need to remember that the other good teams also have their story. Chicago is playing great and with as much confidence as we are. OKC has to rebound and Miami is having some let downs they'll soon put a stop to. Lebron has not been drawing shooting fouls, so you know he's going to make it a priority to get those the next few games.
