Could Motiejunas and Jones both move out of the rotation?

Well I think the discussion had to change because it's blatantly obvious that Jones & DMo are very much rotation worthy. There's no point in everyone just saying "yes they are" over and over again.

 

You won't be able to supress the Twin Towers discussion. It's going to keep coming up even more and more as we get into the playoffs and we are playing teams with multiple bigs such as Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, OKC, Portland, Golden State, and Dallas....all of which play big boy basketball for a good portion of the game at the power spots.

 

Don't take that away from Basketcasealcoholic. It's all he's got. The question in the title of this thread has long been proven ridiculous. Yet he hangs on to it no matter how obviously stupid it is. He is the DD of this thread. (No offense DD. I've always loved you. ).

There is no question against Griffin and LMA etc we struggle. Just like against CP3 and Dragic we struggle. TJones is not an all star PF. He may not be a top half PF but he is the best PF we have on this team.

Sure there are periods when we can use Asik. I never agreed with McHale going from starting to nada but starting was a big suckola result. Anyone who advocates returning to that is just an Asik lover, didn't watch the beginning of the season or has stupid basketball IQ.

Also there were people advocating DMo start over TJones and I agreed to a degree. There was a small window when DMo was clearly outplaying TJones. But I got why McHale wasn't quick to switch out. And history has proved he was right not to do so.

I also thought the small sample of small ball worked for the most part. But I also get why McHale used it sparingly. You can't start messing with a rotation that works for the most part. Asik got a long enough trial (too long IMO) and was scrapped. Casspi got a long enough trial and was scrapped. Small ball got a short trial and was scrapped because in the end Parsons and Harden were asked to play more minutes and Lin really hasn't stepped up.

Anyone who suggest Lin should get minutes and push everyone around to bench TJones has not watched Lin lately. TJones and DMo are the best options we have most nights. To think small ball or Asik is a better option is just stupid. This thread lost validity a long time ago. Cxbby's question was could DMo and TJones both move out of the rotation and the answer is, "Hey stupid are you serious".

 

If "rotation worthy" means they can be in a rotation on a team in the NBA then the answer to that question is yes. Look at the Lakers last night. But if the question is could they both move out of the rotation on a championship team......the answer to that question is yes.

Here's the original post:

The OP obviously is recognizing the fact that we are trying to win a ring this year, that we are going for it. The post is about whether or not Jones and DMo fit in the rotation of a championship team, not whether they are rotation worthy on any NBA team. It's about whether or not they are rotation worthy on a championship team.

My point has been (and remains) that they are not. I stated this fact when Jones was shooting lights out from the 3-point line early. I've been consistent about it all the way through even though Jones has put up some impressive numbers.

I hope I'm dead wrong. But until I see definitive evidence on the floor to change my mind, I'm not changing my mind. I did see a sliver of a glimpse of that possibility against the Heat. And I said so. But that was all. The reason why I'm spelling this out so clearly to you was if I had stated that he had convinced me that he could be a rotation player on a championship team this season (when I didn't believe that) it would have been very convenient to do so to deal with the rest of you. We could've have went through the whole eating crow routine, etc. and been done with it. But the truth is Jones has not convinced me yet that he can be a primary rotation member of a championship team.

There is one possibility left though. And that is this little stretch of games here and another short stretch of games at the end of the month against playoff contenders and championship caliber teams. If Jones plays his a... off against those guys and is consistent....I may change my mind substantially on how I feel about him. But if he is just mediocre or inconsistent then I'm not going to change my opinion on him and the only thing that will change my opinion at that point will be if we win a ring with him averaging 30+ minutes a game.

I think his minutes have to come down to 20 or less for us to be able to win a championship this year. And that would make him the last 1/2 man in the rotation. Starter or not. If he averages less than 20 minutes a game during the playoffs and finals he is basically the last man in the rotation.

 

This post needs a little help with the math. The minutes don't add up.
If Howard gets 36 minutes and Asik gets 28, then the PF rotation would have to go like this:
Asik-16
Harden/Parson 20-25
Jones 7-12

If you total the minutes, the "leftovers" are 14 minutes. So if Jones only plays 7-12 at PF, then he must play some SF, or else one of our perimeter guys would have to play more minutes.

 

LOL, c'mon man, you're sticking with it still? Yikes.

 

Just estimates winkfan. In the playoffs/Finals we are going to see very heavy minutes for Harden, Dwight, and Parsons. They'll be pushing 40 minutes a game.....at least in all games that are competitive.

I have been very clear that Asik and Harden/Parsons minutes should shade the 4 spot leaving a minimal amount of minutes for TJones. I think that is the rotation that gives us the best chance for success provided everybody is healthy.

 

The original post is:

Yep, sticking with it.

 

Fair enough, but "Krush Groove" is never going to be more popular than "E.T."

 

I was just trying to add more clarity.

I agree with you that Jones(and Dmo) are likely will not get the job done in the playoffs. The problem is, I think replacing their minutes with Asik at PF and Hamilton has a significant chance to fail as well.

 

Dobro mentioned this already, but this is exactly the problem! What will it take for you to finally admit how wrong you are?

What, in your mind, constitutes "definitive evidence"?

Seriously. Do we have to win a championship this year? Is this the only way? Is that the only way you can be proven wrong?

I get it: you have a lot of pride, you have ardent beliefs on the matter, you've posted about it and defended yourself ad nauseam, you're trying to reestablish your credibility after the whole you-know-what thing happened. I get it...but at some point you have to be prepared to accept the possibility that you are just flat-out wrong about this.

But again...what's it going to take for you to reach that conclusion?

 

The point of the season where Morey has enough data to evaluate the various lineups is well passed. Please see Morey's statements at Sloan this year. The coaching staff can only guess. Morey, through exhaustive statistical analysis, knows. I find it amazing that with Morey at the helm of strategic operations people are still questioning things like rotations. It certainly boggles my mind. Do some fans actually think they have better statistics, knowledge and coaching expertise than Morey and McHale? That is honestly what I am seeing here.

 

Suppress???... Nobody is suppressing anything dude. Its a fact. NO team in the history of the NBA in the last 20 years has ever been success for a full season running two pure centers together on the floor at the same time for long stretches of the season in their normal rotation without one of them being able to operate either in the high post, or the corners.

Going twin towers, or being able to go small at the same token is a strategic game-time move, and not something that should be in the discussion for "the rotation" as this thread was clearly purposed for, and you clearly keep hammering home about. Its the same type of argument as to whether McHale should go with 3 PG's at the same time against OKC in the playoffs when they are behind and want to try and make a run.

Just as you keep hammering about that a team cannot compete for a championship without a PF that shoots the same percentage as a skilled SG and rebounds & defends at an all star big man level, you than conveniently shifted to an opposing and even more stupid argument that somehow going Twin Towers is the answer.... Because how many F-ing NBA teams have won the title playing two 7 foot centers where neither one of them are capable of playing defense or offense outside of the center of the painted area???

Actually... please don't try and answer that. I don't even want to hear you modulate your argument once again to try and say that this isn't the point you are making, you are actually trying to make X point, or going back to the 1950's to say that the Minneapolis Lakers ran out two centers who played on the low block at the same time.

Whether Jones or D-Mo are worthy enough to be rotation players on a contending teams' roster is a completely different thread and basic basketball discussion than the Twin Towers, or Small ball game time strategy. So just drop it, or move that discussion to another thread.

 

Agreed. chance of failure is still high. just not as high as running Jones out there 30+ minutes every night and limiting Asik to backing up Dwight for 8 minutes a night. I think what people are failing to comprehend here is when the playoffs roll around Dwight is going to be on the floor for around 40 minutes as long as he's not in foul trouble and the game is still in question. That means any games still being decided will only have Asik on the floor for 8-10 minutes when Dwight is playing 40.....unless the rotation changes and we see more of the Twin Towers.

Championships boil down to 2 primary factors:

1. Half-court offensive execution
2. Half-court defensive strategy and execution

In the playoffs/Finals the games slow down, it becomes a cat-mouse chess match. Good offenses playing good defenses and vice versa. Not as many turnovers from the better offenses to create easy scores. Good defenses getting back in transitiion well and limiting fast break opportunities. Teams have to grind on both ends of the floor.
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Let's take half-court offensive execution:
When you are playing playoff teams you are playing team defenses that are usually pretty good. Here's the current defensive efficiency ratings for the top 12 teams:

1. Indiana
2. Chicago
3. GS
4. SAS
5. OKC
6. Toronto
7. Charlotte
8. LAC
9. Minnesota
10. Washington
11. Memphis
12. Houston

We're going to have to beat at least 2 teams (probably 3) and maybe as many as 4 teams on this list to win a ring. And this is overall defensive efficiency. It doesn't even boil down to just half-court defensive efficiency. And we're going to have to beat those teams with our half-court offense. We may get by a round or two at most by running and gunning. But then when you get down to OKC/SAS in the WC Finals and either Indiana or Miami(#14) in the Finals...you know those guys can flat-out bring it on the defensive end. What do you think they are going to do to us when they see us running Jones out there? Do you think they are going to leave Harden open? Do you think they are going to go man-to-man on Dwight? Let Chandler roam free? No. They're going to iso the man that is the worst offensive player. They are going to collapse on Dwight, congest the paint, let Jones catch up high and let him play around with the basketball while they cover everybody else. And then if Jones gets inside they are going to ...... hack him.

Here's another key to championship teams, guys. You can't win a championship when your two primary rotation bigs suck at the free throw line. It waters down offensive efficiency. Playoff defenses are going to be playing harder, more physical, and taking advantage of the conservative whistle. They're gonna get away with more hacks and when they finally do get called, they'll be putting a sucky free throw shooter on the line. That's just the way the playoffs roll.
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Now let's look at half-court offensive efficiency. Currently these are the top offensive teams in offensive efficiency ratings:

1. Miami
2. Portland
3. LAC
4. Dallas
5. OKC
6. SAS
7. Houston
8. PHX
9. Minnesota
10. Toronto
11. NOP
12. Sacramento

We are going to have to beat probably 2 of those teams and possibly 3 of those teams to win a ring. Now...what are they going to do offensively to us to try to beat us?

Well...they're going to try to iso James Harden and they're going to try to iso Terrence Jones. They're not going to try to beat Dwight. We're going to have Parsons and Bev dogging their best offensive players on the perimeter. We're going to be trying to cover for Harden. So those offenses are going to be trying to get switches where their dominant offensive players either face up on Harden or they face up or post up on Jones. Isn't that what any well-coached offensive team would do?

Jones' defense vs. Blake? (we seen that)
Jones' defense vs. Duncan? (any guesses?)
Jones' defense vs. Splitter leaving Dwight out high on Duncan/Diaw?(->stupid)
Jones' defense vs. Ibaka? (any guesses?)
Jones' defense vs. Perk/Adams? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Durant when OKC spreads it out? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Dirk? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Dallas center leaving dwight on Dirk? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. LaMarcus? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Robin Lopez leaving Dwight out high on LA? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Chris Bosh? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Lebron? (LOL)
Jones' defense vs. Miami center leaving Dwight on Bosh? (LOL)


This is where we are headed folks. We are headed right into the teeth of these matchups both defensively and offensively.

Now....take all those "Jones' defense vs. " and make them "Harden's defense vs. " Now all of a sudden you've got something. Or....take all those "Jones' defense vs. " and make them "Asik's defense vs. " and you've got something else.

One of either Harden or Asik alongside Dwight is going to be a better defensive matchup for all the situations I listed above that we are possibly going to face.

And on the offensive end we're going to be better off either spreading the floor with smalls and guys that can really shoot the ball around Dwight/Asik or crashing the offensive glass with 2 monster rebounders in Dwight/Asik on the floor together.

 

You are making the false assumption that Asik cannot operate in the high-post. Not true. Tell me...what does Jones do on offense? He stands on the perimeter and reverses the ball then he dives to the basket and either cleans up the mess or he catches on the cut and finishes. Very seldom does Jones line up a jumper out there. You keep talking like Asik can't play the high post. LOL He's one of the best high-post passers in the league. The only thing that Asik can't do as well as Jones offensively is catch the ball in traffic and finish. Now that's no small thing mind you. It's a huge thing. But come playoff time you are going to get to see what happens to Jones and all those little dives to the basket. He's going to have to catch and finish against bigger/stronger players who are playing much more aggressive playoff style basketball. They're not going to care if they foul him because he sucks at the free throw line and they're also going to get the benefit of most of the non-calls on their aggressive play.

The playoffs/Finals are a different level than what is currently being played. Remember that.


Variance, dobro, Variance. Remember that word? Remember Morey using it last year? He said for us to win a lot of games we are going to have to increase our variance, which meant playing smaller and faster than the opponent. That's my point right now. For us to win a ring we are going to have to increase the Variance. We either have to get smaller and quicker than the opponent and spread them out or we have to get bigger/longer/stronger than the opponent and choke them out.

 

Morey doesn't determine rotations. He has been very clear he doesn't decide who plays and who sits.

 

Jones and D-Mo might or might not get the job done in the playoffs, but that's not really the point. That's just a risk the Rockets are running with relying on two 2nd year players to contribute in the post season any way you look at it.

Hell... Dwight might not perform in the playoffs.... Harden could very well have a 2012 Finals encore performance. However, you wouldn't expect that well.... because there is evidence to the contrary that they will perform well... even though there is always risk.

You have to base what you are hoping to bank with your personnel and rotations in the playoffs with what has worked with this team in the regular season with that particular team. I dont think your going to see Popovich all the sudden implement the corner offense in the postseason because it worked for another team.... no, he's most likely going to rely on what has worked the best for that team over that season, and for years before which is high pick and rolls to death.

Facts-

-Twin towers did not work
-Small ball hasn't really been a huge advantage this year

-Jones has contributed & the team plays well when he plays well
-D-Mo while less reliable, has improved defensively, and has shown to be a contributor more and more as the season goes on.

So what are we going to rely on in the post-season... what has shown hasn't worked during the regular season, or something that HAS worked really well in the regular season???

Maybe McHale makes an adjustment on the fly here and there, but as of now there is NO evidence that suggests another rotation would work better than the rotations that have not just worked, but pretty much dominated the NBA (best record in NBA since Jan 1st) for the better part of the regular season.

 

I already answered this. I'll have to see Jones play consistently good against healthy, rested playoff teams. He hasn't done that through the course of the season. He had a couple good games against the Spurs but the Spurs were dinged up front. And he has had the one outstanding performance against Miami, a team on the road on the second night of back-to-back games. That's not enough for me. I want to see him perform consistently well against playoff teams that are at full-strength and rested up to play ball.

I already told you there's only 3 more chances to change my mind.
1. this next stretch of 5 games.
2. the stretch of 3-4 games at the end of the month going into April.
3. after we have won the ring this season and he has proven me wrong by averaging 30 minutes a game in the playoffs/Finals.


Once again, this thread is about whether Jones and DMo are rotation players on a championship team.

 

You truly must be joking. Right? That McHale provided with the best information will not bring rotations in line with the optimal? Man. McHale, under Morey's influence, drove the mid-ranged shots down to historic lows. Increased three point shots taken to league highs. Could McHale say no? Certainly. Would McHale have a job after that? Probably not. Depending on a GM's statements is OK about what occurred in the distant past. Projecting current arrangements? Definitely not.

 

Variance.... Variance would probably be doing something that has dominated the league since January 1st. That is sort of the definition of "Spread from the mean" ala Variance. This context was used when the Rockets did not have a viable option at the PF position mind you, and I believe it was also before Dwight... so Context BHollic.... Context.

Lol.... This is exhilarating conversation and all, but I've got to get some work done. Please go seek help BHollic. This is not healthy.

#BeatthePacers