I think the Rockets chances of winning it all are as good as almost anyone’s. I wouldn’t have said that earlier in the season. But now I think it’s possible and not just because they have the best record since the beginning of 2014 or they just beat Miami or they beat the Spurs all three times. The reason I say it is not so much because of the Rocket’s improved play but because no one has really separated themselves from anyone else. The Rocket's already shown they can handle the Spurs and they’ve shown beating any of the elite teams is a struggle. They can beat Portland and the Warriors. The Pacers just lost to Charlotte and have lost 5 out of their last 12. No one else in the east is relevant. Our toughest competition in my opinion is OKC and the Clippers. I would say the Clippers are as good as anyone. Griffin is playing MVP like. Still the Rocket’s early losses to them are not a true representation of who we are. The last game was closer but the reality is it was the last game of a 5 game road trip and we looked a little worn at the end of the 4th quarter of that game. OKC is mystery to me. They looked better without Westbrook. Now that he’s back they have struggled. Durant seems a little confused as to his role and they have not find there balance yet. I don’t know where we stand against them. Westbrook and Durant could Mesh again and we are toast. These coming games against them and the one against the Clippers should give me a better understanding of what are chances are in the playoffs. After that I would say I like the Rocket’s chances against Miami. I know Miami didn’t play their best game but neither did we. And I would say a playoff series favor are style of play. They clearly can not match up size wise and the grind it out style of the playoffs favors the Rockets. Lebron is their only edge. So while there are clearly some teams out there that give us problems, the gap is smaller than I had previously thought. I think we still haven’t played are best basketball this year and it is possible that can occur come playoff time. I also believe we have the players to handle a grind it out slow paced game which is usually par for the playoffs and yet we can run with most any team as well. Again we haven’t reached are peak. We need Lin to give us better backup minutes and DMo to get passed his fear of the stars he experienced against Miami but I think that will happen. Asik is improving. I love Beverley’s fearless play. Jones has got passed his second year wall. Hamilton is an improvement over Garcia. Harden is a star in the making and you can see Olajuwon’s influence on Howard more every game. So I think the Rocket’s chances are pretty good. I think we match up well with almost all the elite teams. And even though the Clippers and OKC have owned us they haven’t seen the Rocket’s best yet. I think we can beat Miami in the finals and even the Pacers if they make it although that might be a tougher task.
It is very rare for a team to win the title in the first year of contention. The 2011 Miami Heat couldn't do it and they had 3 superstars. Title-winning chemistry takes years to develop.
Yea... Both the Clippers and the Thunder are the two teams that concern me too. More so, the Thunder. However, as great as we've been playing these last couple months, I still don't think we've reached our full potential just yet, and that gives me hope. I think that once Asik gets back to being the Asik of last year, and Hamilton (who has already done a tremendous job so far) gets better acclimated to his new team, then yes, we've got a great shot to do some real damage in the playoffs. But when it's all said and done, this team will only go as far as Harden & Howard takes us...
I wonder if it's one of those matchup situations like Hakeem's Rockets had with the Supersonics. Interesting enough, Seattle is now OKC. Then again, HOU seems to have played games on 2nd half of B2B vs. OKC and LAC pretty often so there is only so much one can say based on the regular season h2h record.
Clippers and OKC have just been really bad match up for us we can go all the way if some how someway they get eliminated before we meet them.
Lin's play as of lately is also a huge concern to me. which Lin is gona show up for playoffs this year?
In the playoffs "anything" can happen. For example, not likely but could happen that OKC gets knocked out early like the Sonics of years past. When that happened the Rockets had a "clear path." It could happen again. In any case I think the Rockets are a very tough out in a seven game series. And they still have significant room for improvement. If Lin comes back, Garcia and Caspi get it together. Asik picks up his pace and the Rockets go into the playoff healthy and "hot," could be exciting. I didn't think they had a chance just a week ago or so, but oddly enough it was the Magic game that was my tipping point. I saw some real grit in that game. They pushed through a back to back and some sloppy play. If they ever put it together from beginning to end, they are formidable.
Do I dare admit I share your opinion? LOL For me too the east isn't as scary as the Thunder & Clips. Like apollo33 says, if we can just sneak pass them we got a solid chance of taking home the metal.
My worry is can this team consistently score in the playoffs? It just seems as if they work too hard to get their buckets. This isn't a knock on Mchale's coaching ability. To run the offense as effectively as possible, you need experienced players. The team right now is one of the youngest teams going into the playoffs.
Nice post.. Full of optimism. A few things that concern me: 1) Playoff style of basketball - more half court, less run & gun... Will the Rockets let that influence their style of play? 2) McHale - Coaches make their $ in the playoffs. Is McHale that kind of coach? 3) Jeremy Lin - He is not good. The sooner the Rockets realize this, the better. Canaan should be our 2nd team PG. 4) Harden's 3-pt shooting - Not good all year. 5) Rockets trend of going away from Dwight in the 4th Quarter - Why why why??
I agree with the sentiment of the OP. We are close. We need to avoid LAC and OKC until the conference finals. The playoffs are going to be about Parson, Jones and Beverly. Harden and Howard are going to get their own.... Couple of those guys have to have BIG series for us to advance in any round.
nice post, generally agree, including the fact the next few games will give us a better sense of where we stand. one note: "Are" and "Our" are two different words.
Call me crazy, but I think this team could compete with OKC in a seven game series. Last year, minus Dwight, the Rockets took the Thunder to the brink, and OKC has not added a piece nearly as significant as Howard to their roster. I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but I also don't think they'd run us out of the gym like everybody says. If I had to bet, I'd say it's OKC's year to win a title, but I definitely think the Rockets have more than just a puncher's chance at taking them down. The Clippers, on the other hand, are a scary proposition. As constructed, they are literally our Kryptonite. We might be able to take them to 6, but I just don't see any way we could beat them 4 times out of 7.
I have been essentially saying the same thing for 6 months. All of the metrics I ran suggested the Rockets over/under this season was 60.5 wins. ASPM, xRAPM, dRTG, oRTG, WS ... They will probably not reach that win total because Asik spent 2 months injured. The only team I thought had more talent was OKC. The Rockets have everything. The consummate strategist in Morey. The finest "players" coach in the NBA. A focused, content, motivated and happy roster. And a boatload of talent. Never sell talent short. Morey said early on (paraphrasing - sorry) - "the first half of the season the team will work things out. After the all-star break they should be gelling". Well, that certainly looks like it is coming true. The Rockets can beat any team in the NBA in a seven game series. Their starters are possibly better than any other team's right now. I am hopeful. I have been hopeful for a good long time.
I don't know if it's me or not, but I feel this team does have a GOOD chance. Most of our LOSSES came at the start of the season when everyone was still feeling each other out, now it seems we click way better right now. I feel if we keep turnovers down, and knock down our open 3's. We will go pretty damn far this year.
I'm totally enjoying this season. Watching this team build chemistry has really been fun. We have a shot, but I'm afraid our playoff inexperience as a team will reduce our chances significantly. The playoffs will expose that inexperience....and how far we go will be determined by how well the team adapts. I don't fear any one team so much as I fear our inexperience against several teams.
I think Memphis squeeks in and knocks out OKC in the first round. The Spurs beat Phoenix as the seven seed. We beat GS in the three-six matchup, and Portland wins the four-five matchup with the Clippers. The Spurs then beat Memphis. We beat Portland, and then the Spurs in the WCF, and we make it to the finals against the Pacers who we beat in seven! Chips!
