Could Motiejunas and Jones both move out of the rotation?

UMKC Dada.


Edit: I've played on court with a lot of former NBA players. Don't think I've played with any current NBA'ers because I'm old. But I've shared court with a lot of players, know many of them personally, and know a few agents, coaches, and scouts as well.

 

Millsap would fix a lot of the errors at PF. He wouldn't do anything for backup PG, backup wing (hope Hamilton can solidify this position), or that Harden and Parsons don't play defense.

 

Millsap costs about 9-12 million. Sure hope he can fix the errors a 1-2 million guy makes.

 

I'm glad that you agree. A lot of people think Jones and Millsap are of a similar quality. Millsap plays very smart defense.

Millsap would be difficult to acquire due to his skill and cost (understatement). Hawes brings horrible defense. I stand by my point that these guys should not be lumped together as stupid ideas. Millsap would not make the Rockets title favorites , but would improve their future chances of a title depending on cost to acquire as the roster gets more well rounded.

 

Well........get ready. I always try to be honest in my views of our team.

Tonight I was impressed with Jones' play.....especially DOWN THE STRETCH. I thought he would fade. I thought he would shrivel. But the sucka balled up in crunch time. Gotta hand it to him. This was the most impressed I've ever been with Terrence Jones.

I thought his defense was very good. There were a few lapses but nothing I can point to as glaring mistakes. We were playing the world champions. Probably every player (except Bev) lost their man at least once.

But the big thing for me was how Jones played down the stretch. He had a couple finishes down low and a baseline jumper that he drilled like he was Chris Bosh. Even in the first half, he knocked down the one 3-ball he took, a bailout shot, after as shot fake. Ballsy.

I thought this was his best game of the season. This is the first game against a top notch playoff team that I felt Jones was a positive difference maker down the stretch. Jones played well enough to impress me and make me think the odds that he can be a positive contributor in the playoffs are probably a little better than what I have thought they were up to this point.

So I give him his props.

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Now...with all that said. My gut tells me that this is as good as Jones can possibly play this season. And Miami was on the second night of back-to-backs on the road.

So....I still think there's too many "ifs" to get too excited about tonight's game for Jones.

1. If he misses the 3-ball....it's a different game and we're on the short end.

2. If Bosh hits a couple shots...different game.

3. If Miami did a better job exploiting matchups offensively, probably a different result.

4. If Miami did a better job collapsing on Harden/Dwight nad leaving Jones open hanging out on the perimeter.

5. If Miami did a better job with defensive matchups.


I do not feel that this was anything close to Miami's best effort. Nowhere near close. I had to wonder watching the game...is Spoelstra holding back? Same thing I wonder about McHale. What in the blue blazes was DMo doing out there the 2nd half? This game felt to me like 2 teams not willing to really take all those tools out of the tool bag and let all their playoff strategies against one another out of the bag either.


So, while duly impressed with Jones tonight I still feel like he will get exploited in the playoffs. It's obvious he's in the rotation to stay at this point. But I still believe that we will be best served by moving Harden up front and playing Bev/Lin in the backcourt together and limiting his minutes in the playoffs while eliminating DMo's minutes altogether.

As an aside all you guys that were hollering about DMo's 3-point shooting..looks like his hit streak is over. And if he isn't hitting the 3...no reason to play him over Omer.


Guys...I'm not against TJones and DMo. I hope you understand that. Nothing I have written about these guys was because I dislike them. I have no reason to dislike them. It's all about the Rockets and winning a championship. My views are my views. I don't change them by looking at a box score. I watch the games and evaluate players based on what I see. I then look for confirmation in advanced statistics.

 

The Heat actually played the Rockets very similar to the way they play the Pacers. Same plan to load up in the middle, and really hedge up to the top of the key and shoot the gaps... basically stop the dribble penetration, and make life difficult for Howard with a double team.

There is a reason why Lance Stephenson always has some of his best games against the Heat. Same could be said for David West who always beasts against the Heat. Those are the two guys either playing the corners or the high post for Indiana.

I think Jones did a great job tonight of really finding the open seems and making Miami pay for their game plan to leave him open. Beverley sort of played the Stephenson role on offense from the corners as he was wide open due to their defensive scheme to stop the dribble penetration.

Look, I love Jones & D-Mo's talent but I'll be the first to be realistic about where they are in comparison to the top guys at their position in the league. They aren't there yet, they still need offseason work to round out their games, and your still going to get some dud games from them. However they can still be effective night in and night out in their roles as Jones showed tonight.

The Rockets are in a great situation that few teams are able to do because they have these guys with great upside that still can help them win now. The 07 Celtics were lucky enough to have Rondo as a youngster who had upside but could still contribute. The Spurs have had Leonard over the past couple years. You absolutely HAVE TO continue to develop these types of players over time to have sustained success.

The Rockets have potentially 2 or 3 of those types of players that can really be projects AND contribute at the same time. Thats really the best of both worlds IMO, and I'm glad at least for this year Morey didn't throw the towel right away on his youngsters to try and get an incremental increase in productivity early in the season.

Sustained success folks.... that is going to lie not just in Harden, Howard, & Parsons, but maybe more importantly how they develop talent around them over the next 3 years.

 

So...I guess this thread going to get bumped after every game now?

We have "yoohoo" posts after bad games and now we have preemptive passive-aggressive posts after good games. Yawn.

Congrats to TJ on a huge game. He needed this. Like dobro and other have alluded to: it's possible to both be a project and help this team win at the same time. Both TJ and D-Mo have shown flashes of being able to help win games right now. Yeah, they're both young and have their holes. Obviously, we would rather have a Kevin Love or LMA or Paul Millsap. But...that's fantasy, at least for now. I'm focused on this season and these are our guys. Certain people here need to support them without trying to promote their own agenda.

 

You're never 1 player away unless its a superstar. In the rox case,they're like 3 players away minimum. Why you think miami signed not only lebron,but bosh? Why you think Indy keep signing players? Even if by some miracle the rockets can get get rondo,love, or lma, you still can't show me the quality player behind parsons and harden. If you get someone like love, the late game situational basketball is not good. If I were morey and I'm not, I would try to sign and trade lin for lowry and offer ariza mle money before I do anything at the 4 spot. Of course we have to smooth out the deal with lowry and. And mchale. If I couldn't get ariza, I would get henry or wesley johnson on half mle deals.

 

Lets keep the party started

 

I didn't take a whole lot out of this game on Jones. He was playing against Moe Harkless and Tobias Harris?? GIGO

The only thing I did see here that is worth mentioning is he drained a couple jumpers. Form looks much the same, but he doesn't seem to be hesitating right now, just letting it go. I do like his high release. Hopefully he's found a little shooting groove and can keep it going (but I doubt it). Because if he can get his shot going halfway decent it will make all the shooters on the floor better.

 

I love how you like to focus on the one attribute that you know is a weakness for Jones in the long run and totally ignore all the other facets of his game that are his strengths, and contribute more than anything to helping this team win.

If you are truly looking to give an objective view of Jones' game why would you just ignore these things-

-improved help (crack back) rebounding
-decision making on the perimeter(reading the defense in how they are guarding Dwight and making a good decision)
-improved passing in the post
-excellent high/low game on offense with Dwight
-crashing the boards on offensive rebounding
-hustle and increased awareness on team defense
-Moving the ball up the court quickly after a defensive board
-moving decisively into open spaces in the paint when the defense doubles Dwight

Jones' outside shooting is a major weakness in his game just as it is with most young bigs in the league. However Jones has some major advantages against other traditional bigs that he can really exploit. Jones' shooting only has to be good enough to be respected enough to be able to do what he does best.

Jones does NOT need to become Ryan Anderson on offense to be the starting PF the Rockets need to win long term despite the way you depict the PF position to be to win. He needs to just continue to do what he does now, but a little bit better over time with growth, and increasing his reliability to hit the open shot from outside when left open will be the icing on the cake. However the reason why he's out there in the first place is because of the cake, not because of the icing....

Its time for you to give this up, and start being a little more objective about Jones & D-Mo for that matter, and stop setting yourself up to strengthen your argument when its convenient for you later on down the road.

 

The thing is, a summer of situational shooting and we don't have this conversation. I mean, griffin has become a decent 17 ft shooter. He will never be a good post player as I've said year ago because of balance. Jones has the chance with wrk to become a decent shooter and if not from being the 4th/5th option, I've seen his post game be better than the credit its given. As a 4th/5th option,you don't get a lot of opportunities on a good team. Kawii is the 4th option and look at his production. Chalmers,George Hill,matt barnes, I could go on about 4th options. Its a hard role to perform because you might be going against a higher option offensively on another team. U know this based on you basketball experience. This player is attacking you all the time,but you have to wait on your opportunity. That very difficult ,but that's the world they live in.

I never bought into this spread the floor 4. I do think its important the team has guys who can knock down shots. That's true with any team. I think Jones ability to beat bigger guys off the dribble is just as important. Just as Odom wasn't a good 3pt shooter,the fact he had guard handles at 6'10 is what put opposing team in a hard spot. Jones has a lot of those same qualities. He's a rare body type/athlete at the position. As with a lot of young players, its about being consistent moreso than anything. At minimum,get you avg,play solid defense and stay involved in the game. He's been consistent for the most part,he had a bad couple of weeks,but he's been pretty consistent. As long as howard,harden,and parson plays to their level of production, jones and beverly just needs to do their part.

 

What is this, the TLDR thread now?

 

Good question. Let's go through the list one by one.

-improved help (crack back) rebounding

He's not as good a rebounder as Asik is. With Dwight in the game or Asik in the game having a stud rebounder at the 4 is not a necessity. This is a skill easily replicated by any number of PFs in the league. While Terrence is improving in this area...he's not contributing to the overall success of the team. If you plugged in Asik besides Dwight, we would be even more dominant on the glass than Jones and Dwight. And if you put in Omri Casspi or Chandler Parsons at the 4 you aren't going to lose any boards because Jones is on the bench.


-decision making on the perimeter(reading the defense in how they are guarding Dwight and making a good decision)

Once again, Asik is the superior defender, even in space against other power forwards. Jones got away with beating Bosh the other night. But that's one game. If we were in the Finals today believe me Spoelstra would be exploiting Bosh/Jones. Bosh is a perimeter-in power forward. I don't see Jones making a significant positive contribution here. Sorry.

-improved passing in the post

Sure he's improving. But difference making is another story. Asik is the better passer from the post. You probably don't believe that one either. And that's okay. But I do. I've watched Asik enough out of the high post last year to know he's a very underrated passer. Asik is actually a very skilled passer from the high post. He has superior vision to Jones. He's a better passer in the high post.

-excellent high/low game on offense with Dwight

Yes, that has developed over the course of the season. But I still don't sense him being a difference maker here. It's simply a function of 2 professional players playing together. This same chemistry that they are "developing" through playing together is the same chemistry that would develop with any run of the mill PF playing alongside Howard for extended minutes. I see nothing special here.

-crashing the boards on offensive rebounding

Once again, this is a repeat of what you stated above about improved help rebounding. What you should realize is Jones is just doing his job. He's taking what's available for him to take because teams are overplaying Dwight on the glass. Once again, any number of power forwards in this league would be putting up similar rebounding numbers next to Dwight....and Asik.

-hustle and increased awareness on team defense

Great. Once again, he's nowhere close to having as much effect defensively alongside Dwight as Asik would have. And there are any number of power forwards who would look good defensively next to Dwight.

-Moving the ball up the court quickly after a defensive board

Now....this is a unique skill that he has for a 6'9" power forward. He does have a good handle, a very good handle, heck, a great handle. Give him all the handle props you want. Is that skill a needed skill on this team? Absolutely not. There's always at least 2 and most of the time 3 handles on the court around TJones. It's simply not that important a skill in our scheme. Not unless they are going to start letting Jones run the offense at the top.

-moving decisively into open spaces in the paint when the defense doubles Dwight

Wow. You're reaching here. Like.....how many NBA players would remain NBA players if they don't do this???

You want to know what Jones is good at that is adding to this team? Jones' ability to catch the ball down low in traffic and finish with it is adding a little spark to this team. His hands are a hundred times better than Asik's. And his ability to finish after making a difficult catch in traffic is hundreds of times better than Asik's and also better than Casspi's. I'm talking about purely catching the ball down low when the paint is already clogged up, gathering himself, and finishing down there. He's got great hands on the catch. And he's strong enough and long enough to be a good scrum finisher.

But that advantage is going to dissipate when we go to the playoffs and he is constantly playing against bigger/longer/stronger guys.

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There are 2 primary skills that we need around Dwight and Harden. They are in this order:

1. Shooters - it's the #1 skill we need around Harden and Dwight. Guys that can flat out can the spot-up jumper and can hit free throws in crunch time.

and

2. Defenders - guys that can play good to great team defense, can lock down on a man, can switch, can move on the perimeter, and are strong enough to defend in the post when the opponent is super-sized against us.



Every other skill is way down on the list of primary skills needed to surround Dwight and James.

If you are objective you will have to admit that Jones is very subpar at #1. He's a subpar shooter from the floor and he's a very subpar free throw shooter.

And if you are objective you will realize that Jones looks great defensively against the vast majority of lottery teams while he has consistently struggled defensively against the better teams.

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And finally I just posted above and gave him his props for his play during the Miami game.....especially down the stretch in crunch time. I thought he really nutted up against the world champions. And I am hoping that continues. But at this stage....it is hope. I am not confident that he will be able to continue to do that against top-notch NBA playoff teams over the course of a 7-game series.....which is really all that is basically important right now.

 

In my humble opinion, Blake Griffin is NOT a decent 17 foot shooter. If I were coaching a defense against the Clippers I would love it every time he jacked one of those. He's shooting 39.7% for the season from 16-22 feet. I'd try to push a little further out to 18 feet or so and then let him have the shot out there. And that's after an off-season of work on that shot. He's upped his percentage out there from 34.3% last year to 39.7% this year and he's taking more shots out there. If that is what Jones is going to become after an off-season of practice...........LOL.

He's had 3 off-seasons to do this and hasn't done it yet. I suppose at this stage we keep hoping and see what kind of shooter he is when he comes back next year. However....the odds of him becoming a plus shooter at this stage of his career are getting much slimmer. Precious few ballers significantly improve their shooting to plus shooter status. You can probably count them on two hands going back to 1980.

We'll just have to disagree on this point. Jones can't beat guys off the dribble when they are playing off him, giving him the long jumper and playing him to drive. The only time Jones' driving ability comes into play is when we are on the break. Your analogy to Odom does hold water in that regard. Phil and Kobe hated Odom jacking jumpers. They wanted him defending and running the floor for finishes. By the way, Odom is in a different class both defensively and athletically than Jones is. Jones is a good athlete and he is an ok defender. But neither athletically nor defensively is he even close to Odom.

 

LOL... Geezus.

Jones isn't as good as Asik at things like rebounding, and defense therefore I'm wrong that we should be praising Jones' improvement in those areas?????

So now your saying the Rockets should play Asik next to Dwight now because he's better at all the things that I noted he should be praised for improving at???? Cause that worked out so well for the first month of the season?

Talk about modulating an argument ONCE AGAIN. First a starting PF needs to be able to shoot the 3 at the rate of most SG's and now he has to defend the post, and rebound like a top 5 defensive center???? are you F-ing out of your mind or just trying to piss people off? You are intolerable to have a normal OBJECTIVE conversation with on here BHollic. You criticize a player in a way where you are NEVER wrong in the end because you always have an out to your argument.


The truth is there is NOBODY in the NBA available that is both as dominant as Asik is in the ways that you said he's better at Jones than, AND that can provide the 38% or whatever kind of 3 point shooting you so desire and demand of the Rockets power forward. That player just simply doesn't exist dude, and that players sure as hell isn't anything the Rockets can afford to have gone out there and get with Asik & Lin's contracts, and a few late first round picks.

All I'm asking for is OBJECTIVE dialog about where he is VS where he was projected by the idiots that started this thread back in October that said he's out of the rotation in October therefore trade them ASAP for whatever value they had back then, and acquire Jason Smith or Derrick Williams instead. The fact is the folks (you can include yourself here if you have the balls to admit it) that made those kind of brash assumptions about 2nd year players in OCTOBER were wrong, and I'm glad the Rockets mgmt isn't as knee jerk as these types of fans.

But no, you just can't handle that. You have to come back and setup your backhanded complements in a way to where you are always going to be able to come back to any argument at some point and say... Jones isn't shooting lights out from 3 or Jones isn't rebounding like Asik... "You see, I was right".... Well your not right so just admit it and stop making yourself into the second coming of 2012 DD.

(Sorry DD for the reference, you've come back this year with a much clearer head, and we are glad to have you back)

 

I don't remember saying you were wrong for praising Jones' improvement. What I do remember saying was it was inconsequential to the ability of this team to win a championship and he shouldn't be in the rotation of a championship team. Praise him all you want. Doesn't matter to me. Frankly, I agree. He is improving with his rebounding. That doesn't make him a championship team rotation big.

No....I'm not saying that just now. I said it during training camp, I said it when the initial experiement was going on, I continued to say it after the experiment ended, and I'm continuing to say it now. We need the Twin Towers combination on the floor for around 10 minutes a games and perhaps longer against playoff caliber teams.

Yes, I always have an out. Players do change and team circumstances change. I'm not going to get totally hemmed in on my feelings about a player unless I think that player has reached a point of no return. Such as Royce White. But...it took me longer to reach the conclusion that Royce was done than it took most people.

However I normally reach a definitive conclusion about the present state of a player's game quicker than most do. For instance...I was hoping for a trade for Lowry even before he was traded here because I knew he was very underrated and was better than half the starting point guards in the league...including the guy he was playing behind in Memphis (Conley). I also knew before Steph Curry came to the NBA that he would be one of the best players in the draft and would be far superior to Tyreke Evans, whom I knew was a flop during his rookie season when he won ROY. I also knew J.R. Redick would be a top 10 player in his draft class..called that one early. I have watched a lot of basketball and I do see and know things...not everything mind you...but I know some things about players skill sets. I also knew that MKG was way overrated and that if he never got his jumper fixed that he would flop. I knew the kid Washington drafted a couple years ago (Singleton?) would flop because he couldn't shoot and didn't have the mental capacity to learn how.

I miss on some guys. I thought Lance Stephenson was the worst player in the league a couple years ago and would be out of the league by now. (Still wouldn't pay him if I were a GM) And I still believe that Andre Drummond will become a very overrated Shawn Kemp/Michael Olawakandi mixture in a few years instead of blossoming into a superstar. I could be wrong on that one. But I'm not willing to pull back on it yet. I still think Drummond is going to wind up severely underperforming his talent level, just like Javale McGee has. However I'm right way more than I'm wrong. And nobody is right all the time.

That is correct. They're weren't available this year. I didn't say they were. Don't know what the problem here is. This thread is about the rotation-worthiness of Jones and DMo. My comments are directed as such. Not about whether or not I think we missed on some stud PF that we don't have. I trust Morey's vision for this team.

Everything I have written has been totally objective. I've complimented when Jones played well. But also pointed out the deficiencies that I believe are going to finally crater our championship aspirations this year. My assertion remains the same. We have not had a championship team big man rotation for most of the season.

Now with Asik back there is a possibility that we could eek through. But right now I believe for us to win a championship Asik's minutes have to increase, DMo's minutes have to be eliminated and TJones minutes need to be limited. I don't believe we will win a championship with Asik simply just backing up Dwight. I believe for us to win a championship that Asik has to be playing in tandem with Dwight for at least 10 minutes a game and when we aren't in the Twin Towers configuration we should be playing small with Harden at the 4 for most of the minutes. I believe if we continue to run Jones out there for 30+ minutes a game in the playoffs that we are going to get burnt and beat. In my opinion Jones should be the last 1/2 man in the rotation. I have seen very, very little in Jones games to change my feelings on that.

And finally...I believe the finally telling tale will be these games down the stretch against playoff teams...particularly these next 5 games in a row and then also the remaining games against the Clips, Nets, Thunder, and Spurs. Jones' performance in the rest of the games is meaningless as far as I'm concerned.

 

Robert Horry and Sam Cassell

Actually, you can

 

So all of this ranting and deflecting to allude to the Twin Towers combination getting about 10 minutes a game? What happens during the other 38 minutes?

Don't talk to me about Love, LMA or this mythical 40%+ shooter from distance that plays lock-down defense and rebounds like Dennis Rodman. That player doesn't actually exist. Talk to me about a realistic solution to "fix" this rotation. Keeping in mind, I basically had to question your sanity last time whenever you proclaimed Charlie Villanueva would "upgrade" our 4 spot. Let's try to keep our feet on the ground here.

P.S. "Boldly" predicting the 11th overall pick in a severely weak draft would become a top 10 player in his draft class isn't exactly Mel Kiper, Jr. telling us Matthew Stafford was going to be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft while he was still in high school. I remember you, DD and others wildly hyping up Redick as being something more than just a top 10 player in his class. I also remember you hyping up Brandon Rush as some sort of All-Star and franchise player. Rubio, as well. And any observant Rockets fan that remembers the Francis days had to see the similarities (to a fault, obviously) in Tyreke Evans.

We all have our hits and misses. Just saying, you should probably pick some better examples.

 

Right now, for the balance of the season and the playoffs, we should give Harden/Parson about 20-25 or so of those minutes at the 4. That'll leave around 15 or so for Jones or whomever is hot.

Bev-30
Lin-30
Harden-36
Parsons-36
Dwight-36
Omer-28
Hamilton-30
Jones-leftovers


Once again, I'm not against Jones. I just feel like this rotation has the best chance of success. Perhaps against some matchups you could flip Jones' and Hamilton's minutes. But I think those matchups are going to be rare against the playoff teams. And perhaps you could flip some of Asik's minutes to Jones depending on matchups. But likewise, I think those matchups are going to be rare against playoff teams.