All depends on the next 7 games. 1 scrub and 6 teams (double counting Miami) that are in the top 4 in either conference. If we come out with a winning record, I'l be very happy.
The Blazers lost their last chance for playoffs due to "13 consecutive defeats between late March and mid-April of last year." While I don't believe the same would happen this year, I can't help wondering what kind of a slide down the Blazers would see this year, especially after the unexpected loss to the lowly Lakers last night on their home court with LMA back. On the flip side, the recent four wins in the Northwest Division have pushed their lead up to 12-3, ahead of the Thunder's 9-5. With only four games apart and 22 games left, the Blazers still have a 5% chance to win the NW division and end up in the top two seed. One more game later, they will be entering their first 5-game road stretch of the season against four winning teams in the West. And starting tonight the Rockets will have their own share of the toughest 7-game stretch of the season, with four games against IND, MIA and OKC, plus one each against POR and CHI. What's unusual is that it is going to start and end with a game against the Heat, featuring a LBJ who has just scored his career-high and franchise-high of 61 points, plus 8 threes without a miss, last night against the 6th-best defensive team of the league. It's gonna be a very entertaining two weeks for Rox fans and a handful for our players.* Let's give them more love in their push for a new record year, 'cause I don't believe hate could help in any way.
They kind of tanked last year at this time once they got a couple of injuries - they had no bench, so once they got hit with a few niggles, they put some players out of action and ran for the highest pick they could get.
I would not mind being in the 2-3 spot with the Spurs while OKC and LAC battle it out from the 1 and 4 slots. Not bad at all. Wherever we end up I hope we can avoid OKC and LAC until the WCF.
Portland Schedule is very hard Rockets will fight with the Floppers for the 3rd place San Antonio Schedule is hard too, but they are in a very good position to keep the 2nd place
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 OKC Thieves 46-15 6-4 0-2 1H,1A L 27-9 L No<B> 27</B> (-1) 2 Spurs 44-16 8-2 3-0 1H W 9-3 L 25-10 L Yes*<B> 25</B> (-1) 3 Rockets 41-19 8-2 9-4 23-16 4 Clippers 42-20 8-2 0-3 1H L 25-11 L No*<B> 22</B> (-1) 5 Blazers 41-19 6-4 2-1 1H W 23-15 L Yes<B> 23</B> (-1) 6 Warriors 37-24 7-3 2-1 None W 21-16 W Yes*<B> 17</B> (-1) 7 Mavericks 36-25 6-4 2-2 None T 9-5 W 18-16 W Yes<B> 17</B> (-1) 8 Suns 35-25 5-5 2-1 None W 22-17 W Yes*<B> 16</B> (-2) 9 Grizzlies 34-25 7-3 2-2 None T 2-11 W 19-19 W Yes*<B> 16</B> (-1) 10 Wolves 30-29 6-4 2-0 1H,1A W 17-22 W Yes<B> 13</B> (-1) 11 Nuggets 25-34 1-9 1-0 1H,1A W 13-22 W Yes<B> 8</B> (-1) 12 Pelicans 24-37 2-8 2-0 1H,1A W 3-9 W 10-27 W Yes*<B> 4</B> (-1) 13 Jazz 21-39 4-6 1-1 1H T 11-26 W Yes<B> 3</B> (-1) 14 Kings 21-39 4-6 2-2 None T 12-27 W Yes<B> 3</B> (-1) 15 Lakers 21-40 3-7 2-1 1H W 11-24 W Yes<B> 2</B> (-2) * Indicates the Tie Break is final Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>3/4</B>. The Rockets kick off their Six and a Bit Games of Doom with a very impressive win over the Miami Heat. Their bench was atrocious at running the offense, but damn it was nice to see our starters take it to the Heat's best. The Rockets move back into the #3 spot, and all Magic Numbers drop one. The Rockets didn't get any help at the top of the standings. The Thieves smacked Hinkie's Tanking wonder 125-92 behind Westbrook's triple double and Durant's 42 points and 9 boards. The Spurs beat Dan Gilbert's hapless Cavs 122-101. The Spurs were led by Danny Green with 24 points and Kawhi Leonard with 18. Tony Parker had a subpar 7 points and 5 dimes, but the Spurs look to be rounding into shape just in time for the stretch run. The Clippers extended their winning streak to five with a 101-96 victory over the Phoenix Suns behind Matt Barnes with 28 points and Blake Griffin with 22. Goran Dragic and Chris Paul each finished with 14 points and 9 assists. The Suns lose an additional number with the loss. The Warriors went into Indiana and eeked out 98-96 behind Klay Thompson's last second shot. Klay Thompson went off in the fourth quarter to stave off the Pacers' comeback attempts and finished with 25 points. Apparently two Cellar Dwellers played, and the Pelicans beat the Lakers 132-125. Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis each had 28 points. The Lakers drop an additional point and look poised to be the first team to be crossed off our list. The Rockets get to play the bit game of their Six and a Bit Games of Doom tomorrow night when they take on a pretty terrible Magic team that is decent at home. After an impressive win tonight, the Rockets can't come out flat and blow this one. In this dog fight, the Rockets have to take care of all their gimme games. They've been doing that lately, and I expect it to continue tomorrow. There are a bunch of other Western Conference teams in action tomorrow night as well, but not much that looks promising to help the Rockets. Jazz at Wizards, Warriors at Celtics, Kings at Bucks, Nuggets at Mavs, Knicks at Wolves, Grizz at Nets have either no impact or only affect the 6-8 race. The up and down Blazers host the Hawks a few nights after blowing a home game to the Lakers. I don't think they'll lose, but I'd be pleasantly surprised if they gift wrapped us a loss.
So how do these Magic Numbers work? Magic Numbers work for 2 team tie-break (multiple team tie-breaks are covered later). If a Magic Number drops to 0, that means the Rockets have clinched a better record over that team or at least a tie where they own the tie breaker. Magic Numbers drop in three different ways. If the Rockets win, the Magic Number drops 1 for every other Western Conference team. If a Western Conference team loses, their Magic Number drops 1. If the Rockets clinch a Tie Break (details below) over a team, that team’s Magic Number drops 1. At the start of the season, all teams started with a Magic Number of 83. What do these columns mean? L10 – Record over the last 10 games H2H – The head-to-head record for the Rockets against the given team. Games Left – How many games we have left against the given team. Broken out by home (H) and away (A). H2H TB – The head-to-head tie break. We either have a winning record (W), losing record (L), or are tied (T). Div – The division record of the Mavs, Spurs, Grizz, and Pelicans. All non-division opponents have N/A. Div TB – The division record tie break. We either have a better division record (W), worse division record (L), or are tied (T). Teams that aren’t in our division have an X. Conf – The conference record of an opponent. Conf TB – The conference record tie break. We either have a better conference record (W), worse conference record (L), or are tied (T). Overall Tiebreak – Denotes if we won the 2 team tie break over a given team. If there’s an * at the end, that means the tie break is final and cannot be changed. If we clinch a tie break over a team, their Magic Number drops 1. If another team clinches a tie break over the Rockets, their Magic Number stays the same. Magic Number – An opponent’s Magic Number. Diff – How much the Magic Number changed from the last time I ran an update. How do 2 team tie breaks work? If 2 teams are tied (and not part of a multiple team tie break), the way it’s broken down is head-to-head, then division record (if it’s the Grizz, Spurs, Mavs, or Pelicans), then conference record, then record against Western Conference playoff teams. We play most Western Conference teams 4 times, and others 3 times. For the teams we play 3 times, head-to-head decides the tie break. How do multiple team tie breaks work? Let’s say 3 teams are tied (the same logic applies to 4 or 5 team ties). You take their combined record against one another. Rockets: 2-1 against Blazers, 0-3 against Clippers Blazers: 1-2 against Rockets, 1-1 against Clippers Clippers: 3-0 against Rockets, 1-1 against Blazers So the cumulative totals are: Rockets: 2-4 Blazers: 2-3 Clippers: 4-1 Clearly the Clippers have the best record of that group, so they are at the top of the list. Then it goes to the two team tie break. In this case, the Rockets are up 2-1 on the Blazers and place above the Blazers. Now if any of these teams faced off in the playoffs, 2 team tie breaks are used to determine home court advantage. The Blazers could certainly own the 2 team tie break on the Clippers and even though the Clippers would have a higher seed, the Blazers would claim home court if the two met in the playoffs. The Division Winner Exception The NBA closed a loophole that nearly let the Rockets, despite losing the division to the Hornets, wind up as the #1 seed. In terms of tie breaks, division winners always win the tie break over teams that didn’t win their division. So even if the Blazers won the season series 2-1, if they’re tied and meet in the playoffs, the Clippers as the Pacific Division champs would have home court. How does seeding work? Seeding works in a specific Order of Operations: 1) Determine the division winners. If two or more teams are tied atop a division, use two team or multiple team tie break rules. 2) Seed the teams 1-8 based on records. If 2 or more teams are tied, use two team or multiple team tie break rules. Division winners always win the tie break over teams that didn’t win theirs. 3) Are all three division winners a top 4 seed? If not, take the lowest seeded division winner and move them up to the #4 seed. Bump the other teams down a spot to make room. 4) Award home court advantage in each round to the team with the best record. If the teams are tied, use 2 team tie breaks. Division winners always win the tie break over teams that didn’t win theirs.
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 OKC Thieves 46-15 6-4 0-2 1H,1A L 27-9 L No<B> 26</B> (-1) 2 Spurs 44-16 8-2 3-0 1H W 9-3 L 25-10 L Yes*<B> 24</B> (-1) 3 Rockets 42-19 8-2 9-4 23-16 4 Clippers 42-20 8-2 0-3 1H L 25-11 L No*<B> 21</B> (-1) 5 Blazers 42-19 6-4 2-1 1H W 23-15 L Yes<B> 22</B> (-1) 6 Warriors 38-24 7-3 2-1 None W 21-16 W Yes*<B> 16</B> (-1) 7 Suns 35-25 5-5 2-1 None W 22-17 W Yes*<B> 15</B> (-1) 8 Mavericks 36-26 5-5 2-2 None T 9-5 W 18-17 W Yes<B> 15</B> (-2) 9 Grizzlies 34-26 7-3 2-2 None T 2-11 W 19-19 W Yes*<B> 14</B> (-2) 10 Wolves 30-30 6-4 2-0 1H,1A W 17-22 W Yes<B> 11</B> (-2) 11 Nuggets 26-34 2-8 1-0 1H,1A W 14-22 W Yes<B> 7</B> (-1) 12 Pelicans 24-37 2-8 2-0 1H,1A W 3-9 W 10-27 W Yes*<B> 3</B> (-1) 13 Kings 22-39 5-5 2-2 None T 12-27 W Yes<B> 2</B> (-1) 14 Jazz 21-40 3-7 1-1 1H T 11-26 W Yes<B> 1</B> (-2) 15 Lakers 21-40 3-7 2-1 1H W 11-24 W Yes<B> 1</B> (-1) * Indicates the Tie Break is final Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>3/5</B>. It’s a trap! I was worried about a letdown and started to panic a bit when they came out so flat and sloppy. The recently much maligned bench unit staunched the bleeding and got the team back in it (they also played terribly in the fourth). After that it was a slow methodical march until the Rockets blew the doors open late as they beat the Magic 101-89. It’s assuring to see us grind out a win on tired legs and not negate the great win over Miami, but the turnovers have to decrease. All Magic Numbers drop 1. No Help at the Top The Blazers bounced back from their embarrassing loss to the Lakers by destroying the visiting Hawks 102-78. Nicolas Batum had 14 points and a career high 18 boards in the victory. Portland stays even with us, but they also embark on a rough road trip with @Mavs, @Rockets, @Grizz, @Spurs. Warriors clearly in the Playoffs. The others…not so much? The Warriors stayed hot by crushing the tanking Celtics in Boston 108-88 in a game that wasn’t as close as it sounds. Klay Thompson and David Lee each had 18 points in the victory. Warriors are starting to create some separation for the #6 spot, but they’ve got Suns, Mavs, @Clippers coming up. The Grizz had a chance to take a spot in the top 8, but the Nets jumped out early 21-2 and never looked back in a comfortable 103-94 win. Joe Johnson had 21 points and Deron Williams had 16 points and 7 dimes. Marc Gasol had 19 points and 7 boards in the loss. While they missed out tonight, it sure seems Memphis will catch either of the sputtering Mavs or Suns soon. The Mavs continued their losing streak by dropping a 115-110 loss to the terrible Denver Nuggets. Dirk diggled his way to 27 points and 10 boards, and the Matrix had 15 points and 6 rebounds in the defeat. The Mavs lose an extra Magic Number. Their losing streak is now three and they have Blazers, Pacers, @Warriors coming up. Cellar Dwellers Minnesota looked they might mount a furious rally at the #8 seed. A recent win streak raised the optimism of tortured Wolves fans, but their season seems bleak after a dreadful 118-106 loss to the pathetically cratering Knicks. Melo had 31 points, 5 dimes, 5 boards, and 5 turnovers. Free Kevin Love! had 19 points and 8 boards in the loss. The Wolves drop a second Magic Number. The Wizards beat the Jazz 104-91. The offensive juggernaut Trevor Ariza busted loose for 26 points. The Jazz lose an additional Magic Number and are just 1 number away from being eliminated. The Kings took on the pathetically bad Bucks and proceeded to hammer them 116-102. Mr. Effiiciency Rudy Gay scored 22 on 8-16 shooting to go with 7 boards and 6 assists, and Boogie had 21 points and 10 rebounds. Thursday Games The Rockets are off, but three of the big guns are in action. Heat at Spurs is the highlight and should be a great game. Thieves at Suns and Clippers at Lakers are also on tap.
Excellent work as always. Agreed about the Warriors looking solid for that 6th spot. They've got way more home games than road games the rest of the way. The Suns are in the exact opposite situation, so they might be the team to fall out of the Top 8.
Awesome. Thanks Scribo. Just some constructive criticism... maybe better if you are able to reference this as a URL on each of your magic number posts. It is helpful for folks like me who originally had a difficult time understanding the numbers.