Both sides are going to order their troops to fire only if the other side does first. But it will only be a matter of time before one mistake is made and the whole thing tumbles down...
Ukraine has approx 80% of the gas lines that enter into Eastern Europe. Controlling this region has significant geopolitical implications.The 2008 Georgia conflict was just a prelude, and now this is the real deal. Putin is a real threat to the sovereignty of the old Soviet states... And this same instability that is happening in Ukraine will spread in neighboring countries of Poland, Hungary, Romania and the rest of former bloc. Now during Obama's tenure as the President, Russian govt is noting the lack of teeth from the boys in the West. The US stance on numerous issues have been weak, and the rest of the world notes this change. The US will saber rattle, but nothing changes. They'll threaten sanctions, and Chinese banks will continue to invest and provide a source of income. People refer to the hypocricy seen by American politics when we unilaterally entered and attacked Iraq. Seems, that Russia is using the exact same stance... Trillions of dollars in debt and countless loss of soldiers over a useless conflict now shows its real danger. This is the time to attack, and prevent Russian aggression. But its clear that we lack the capital and resources to do much of anything. Places that were real threats to instability: Syria, Iran and North Korea. Russia has now decide to throw itself into the mix, and the US seems helpless to do much of anything. Ukraine will be taken over by next week(without a struggle and whimper). And the rest of the world will continue to twiddle their thumbs...
Russians will plant Russians inside Ukraine and they will fire shots on the Russian army and the Russians will claim it was Ukrainians who fired shots to justify force. Russia will run over Ukraine as if you were to go into your backyard and start stomping ants. I just hope Obama isn't too much of a puss to help them.
If this happens and it most likely will, then the EU and the USA should open their borders to Ukrainian passport holders. There are some incredibly intelligent, creative, talented people there and I'm sure other countries would love to have them. If Russia wants to do this then get the good people out of there. Having a Ukrainian passport is like being in Prison you can't really go anywhere without a special Visa and those Visa's are tough to get.
Don't set yourself up for failure expecting either the US or the EU to really help Ukraine, if the Russians thought there was ANY chance that the word of the US or EU meant anything at all, they wouldn't have invaded. Putin knows that he is far more powerful than any leader in the west and can pretty much do whatever he wants without serious repercussion.
Interesting Article from Forbes. I won't post it all because there are some good maps to look at on there: Putin Is Losing In Ukraine And That's Our Biggest Problem Right Now http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsat...aine-and-thats-our-biggest-problem-right-now/ First, the obvious. War in Ukraine would be horrific. Many of the fine young men I worked with there would be conscripted into the army. Some would surely die, others would never be the same. My family and friends there would face danger of the worst kind. Yet, Russia wouldn’t fare much better. Ukraine is no pushover. I’m not a military expert, but the western personnel I have spoken to consider the Ukrainian forces to be more prepared than their Russian counterparts. One way to understand the difference in quality is to look at the the ratio of professional soldiers to conscripts. Ukraine’s armed forces are 60% professional; Russia’s only 30%. Further, when the Soviet Union broke up, much of its arms industry was located in Ukraine, which even today remains the world’s 9th largest arms supplier. And Ukraine would most likely receive support, both overt and covert, from NATO allies on its borders—Poland especially—and electronic intelligence from the United States. Of course, Russia’s armed forces are far larger, but there would be no easy victory. In the meantime, harsh sanctions would surely go into effect. Many of Russia’s elite would see their assets frozen and travel visas revoked. Its banks would be cut off from the international financial system. Trade with the West world grind to a halt. Within weeks, shoppers in Moscow would start to see empty shelves. And that’s what makes recent events so scary. Putin knows all this and he still seems determined to press his luck. He isn’t, as some would believe, playing the role of a chess master, but that of a desperate man with nothing left to lose. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union dominated the region, controlling all of its coastline except for Turkey in the south. Today, Bulgaria and Romania are NATO allies, Georgia is actively seeking membership and it’s likely that Ukraine will soon do so as well. That dynamic continues to play out on every front. A decade ago, with the US mired in two wars and subject to international condemnation over Iraq, Russia sought to split the Atlantic Alliance. Further, as Europe’s primary supplier of natural gas, it could exert pressure whenever it wanted to. Yet it was the EU, not the US that was Putin’s chief adversary in the latest crisis and as The Washington Post reports, ten years of gas politics have resulted in dramatically reduced demand for Russian resources. Even Ukraine has cut consumption by 40%. Russian coffers have lost billions in the process. Now, the change in Ukraine’s government has left Putin’s dream of a Eurasian Customs Union to rival the EU in tatters. He faces growing opposition at home, a continuing crisis in the Northern Caucasus and poor economic prospects. A significant drop in the price of oil could send his economy into freefall. President Obama says that we shouldn’t view events through the lens of a Cold War chessboard and he’s right. We control nearly all the pieces and have little ground to gain. Putin, on the other hand, is down to his last few pawns. So yes, we should be firm. We should be clear that Putin’s recent behavior is unacceptable and will incur further costs. Yet we should also give him a way out of the crisis and do our best to help him avoid humiliation. Putin cannot win. I would suspect that even he knows that. What we need to do now is diminish his determination to impose a price on the rest of the world.
I agree that we won't go to war over the Ukraine, not intentionally, anyway, but those that are upset about this aren't nuts.
I wonder what will happen to the ISS if this gets really ugly -- Obama/ Congress will have to get together to fast track the SLS (if that is even possible).
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>A Night in Hollywood, A Day in Ukraine.</p>— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) <a href="https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/statuses/440295542988341248">March 3, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
When Ukraine agreed to give up their nuclear weapons we promised to protect them. Learn your history. This is a big deal. Much bigger than Syria, etc..
Wow. Excellent point, KC. Who knows? More Russian/Putin blackmail? It's always been a possiblility, which is why I was against shutting down the shuttle program completely until we had an alternative way to get our people up there. Our people and the others participating in the ISS.
i agree; Ukraine is well and truly ****ed. at a minimum they lose the crimea, and Salon, The WaPo, and NYT will hail it as a great compromise, and diplomatic triumph for Obama/Kerry. Putin knows this, and also know he could take the whole country, or most of it, and there's nothing (not "little") the west will do. there are things Obama could do to apply pressure, mostly by using some of his newly asserted federal powers to negate existing rules on the export of gas & oil outside the US. He won't of course, since it might require a fem commitment to build keystone (in the long run). but more importantly, Putin has Obam by the short and curlies over Afghanistan. having announced we'll be gone this year, Putin took a look at the map, not just of the black sea, but of the Af/Pak region. who controls US exit points ex-Pak? not Obama.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Oscars&src=hash">#Oscars</a> got the annoying out of the way early with Anne Hathaway.</p>— S.E. Cupp (@secupp) <a href="https://twitter.com/secupp/statuses/440300698953973760">March 3, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Anne Hathaway reminds me of every awful theater person I've ever known. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Oscars&src=hash">#Oscars</a></p>— Derek Hunter (@derekahunter) <a href="https://twitter.com/derekahunter/statuses/440300783297654784">March 3, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The internet interrupts its instant expertise about Ukraine to hate on Anne Hathaway</p>— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaketapper/statuses/440300800309755904">March 3, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I too doubt that the US will get involved in a military conflict, but I do not doubt that the US will arm Ukraine and its neighbors. In order to send a msg to the Kremlin, you do have to do what you say ull do... or its best not to speak. What are these graves and empty threats that Obama and Kerry keep telling the rest of the world...
Totally was gonna mention this in a post earlier...and its very true...mutli -billions invested with a country we don't fully trust...and its floating out in space...(Any of our Astronauts out there??)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash">#Ukraine</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Crimea&src=hash">#Crimea</a>: the truth <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Putin&src=hash">#Putin</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Russia&src=hash">#Russia</a> media don't tell you <a href="http://t.co/Zy9CIorDC9">pic.twitter.com/Zy9CIorDC9</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23stalin&src=hash">#stalin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23tatars&src=hash">#tatars</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23massacre&src=hash">#massacre</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23deportation&src=hash">#deportation</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23genocide&src=hash">#genocide</a></p>— East of Brussels (@EastOfBrussels) <a href="https://twitter.com/EastOfBrussels/statuses/440236115715686400">March 2, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
