[Grantland] Databall

That's super interesting for me. The spread between the league best and worst is only 7 points. The spread between league average and Paul is only 3.5 points?

 

If Ricky Rubio is -3.33 and Morey is a stats geek, then why did Morey want Rubio so badly? Does that tell us, Morey's strategy is indeed flawed?

 

I'm picking morey's judgement over these guys metric, even if it's really impressive perhaps in a different system or back when morey wanted him he could of become a + nba player

 

Well the other argument against this is that Morey didn't have any NBA data on Rubio at the time which these guys do.

 

No strategy is 100%. People need to stop being so result oriented.

I just did a quick prayer and flipped a coin while saying, "Heads!" twice in a row it was heads. Clearly, if I were to repeat this 98 more times it would always be heads.

 

Even if we got Rubio, you just know he would of been flipped before he had to sign an extension that's the pg morey way

 

Rubio could be an interesting case of "wrong team, wrong situation." Remember how promising he looked during his rookie season? Well, the ACL tear and subsequent loss of Kevin Love probably required him to chuck the ball while returning from an injury. That kind of negative player development could have hampered his original promise.

 

Rubio has a terrible shot, worse than Rondo. He has bad form, his game would flourish in Europe, where they just run wide open. He isn't made for the NBA even if he's good on defense.

 

I mean Rubio was a high potential prospect. He could probably have developed completely different here in Houston. You gotta look at that kind of aspect also.

 

+3.5 points is approximately the difference between 41-41 and 51-31.

 

So it seems this stat evaluates offense only, right?

 

That's what I meant, I should've phrased my point better. Rubio's developmental situation in Minnesota adversely impacted his growth and drastically reduced the ceiling on his game. In the right system, he could've learned how to be a more efficient offensive player, but the dysfunctional rotations and injuries in Minnesota forced him to shoulder too large a burden during his early years.

 

That appears to be the case.

 

That's part of it. Rubio is just weird in that his shooting, esp. his 3pters, has not improved at all, even though it's very common for players to learn to shoot the 3 competently as their career progresses. Might be Minnesota or it might be Rubio. If Rubio's 3pt shooting had developed like a normal player, he'd be very valuable.

So I think Morey's assessment on draft day as valuable was right. I doubt Morey would still rate Rubio highly.

 

I would guess it also values defense, as the EPV for the Leonard 3pt shot decreased slightly as Waiters closed out on him.

I think it would actually be a lot more interesting if this analysis can come with a way to quantify defense, like Roy Hibbert in the paint means 3 less points for opponents per game.

 

I don't really understand how this works, but I didn't read the article all that carefully. I understand the notion that you can predict the probability of a score based on the positions of all the players, shot clock, who has the ball, etc. But how do they assign credit/blame to the players on the floor for this? I would think there's a lot of different ways one could go about doing this, and they'd each give very different results.

 

My understanding is that it is based on the decision that the player with the ball made, whether he drove, shot it, or passed it.