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If you were Morey: Sell High on Jeremy Lin?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by willwmc, Feb 2, 2014.

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If you were Morey: Sell High on Jeremy Lin?

  1. Yes, Sell

    267 vote(s)
    59.1%
  2. No, Keep through out contract

    185 vote(s)
    40.9%
  1. RedEyesKirby

    RedEyesKirby Member

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    To be fair, you didn't put it the 23% vs 27% usage which does translate quite a lot more.
     
  2. meh

    meh Member

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    I didn't put it usage difference because I figured the efficiency thing is obvious. But apparently it's not, so I'll spell it out in detail.

    Dragic has a .605 TS%. Lin has a .584 TS%. Dragic is a more efficient scorer.
    Dragic has a 17.4 TO%. Lin has a 19 TO%. Dragic takes care of the ball better.

    Also, efficiency scales negatively with higher usage. Harden's TS% dropped from .660 in OKC to ~.600 the last two years with higher usage. So no, extra usage would not make Lin better than Dragic. It would make him put up better raw numbers. But his efficiency would go down.

    Oh, and if you want to make the "Lin comes off the bench it screws him up somehow" argument, that doesn't work either. Dragic's per-36 back when he was traded to the Rockets with no prior experience and a backup to Lowry was 16.2/5.3/5.2 on .604 TS%. There was never a dip whether Dragic played backup or starter, with ballhogging Bledsoe or when he runs the show by himself.

    And if you want the "McHale sucks as coach" argument, well, keep in mind Dragic got big money by playing for McHale in the first place. Just ask any Rockets fan who have watched the Rockets before 2012-2013 season and see whether they think Dragic we "held back by the incompetence of McHale" like many are doing for Lin.
     
  3. steady

    steady Member

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    meh, I respect your posts and I love Dragic .. but ...

    This is Dragic's seventh year as a PG in the league (several of those as a back up to Steve Nash), and this is Lin's second or third. Yea, Lin is not as good as Dragic.

    Dragic has been the 1st or 2nd offensive option for the Suns this whole season year. Lin has been at best the 4th or 5th option for the Rockets, and he is often not the primary ball handler even when he is on the floor. -- Do you believe that Dragic's numbers this year would be the same if he had the role Lin's had for the Rockets?
     
  4. Crunchyball

    Crunchyball Rookie

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    Seriously this debate has not legs . Apples and oranges. Dragic is good , but so is lin. Rockets better than suns End of story.
     
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  5. calcium

    calcium Member

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    So.... who can we get for Lin this time? Realistically speaking, that is.
    (As opposed to wishful thinking).

    Would we get another guard? Or front court.

    Do we need another guard?
     
  6. AVoiceInACrowd

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    When your trying to "spell it out in detail", don't make so many mistakes.

    Lin actually has a .607 TS%. So Lin is technically a more efficient scorer assuming your stats on Dragic is correct. http://nbawowy.com/query/sct88u4mbf3zbyb9#/sct88u4mbf3zbyb9

    The sad part is you contradict what you wrote in a previous post to make your point. "This year when Harden's not on the court, Lin is averaging 17.5 points/5.5 assists per-36 on 48% shooting(.60 TS%)."

    Also, efficiency does not always scale negatively with higher usage. If we look further into your incomplete example of Harden. Harden did have .660 TS in OKC, but only for the 2011-12 year. But what you didn't write was that he had a .598 TS% in 2010-11, even though his usage was lower than 2011-12. Another example is Dragic, his usage is up from last year but so is his TS%.

    The truth is no one knows how Lin will do on another team. Everyone has their opinion on it (Personally I think Dragic is a better player at this point and time). But if your argument is filled with so many errors, it takes away from your credibility.
     
  7. TheJet

    TheJet Member

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    Be honest. You're here just to spew your ire over everything. We get it. You hate everything and you're smarter than everyone. Feel better?

    Keep on insulting Houston, Rockets fans and this forum in general if it floats your boat.

    I won't even bother addressing whatever points you were making between your repetitive insults because, as you said, "You're only here for one reason". It sure isn't to be a Rockets fan or discuss basketball.

    Enjoy.
     
  8. FTW Rockets FTW

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    Totally wrong. Lin is at best in the 15-18 range and that is being generous which means there are at least 15 better PG's in the league. He is what I would call an average or mediocre PG. Lin as 1st or 2nd option on any team means that team is a lottery team.

    Oh and stay away forever. Good riddance.
     
  9. tcadriel

    tcadriel Member

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    I like Lin and would rather see him in the starting lineup. I'm also not a fan of Mchale and believe we could do better with a different captian. But you have fallin of the deep in and have no buisness criticizing the Rockets org. when your full of crap and have no idea what your talking about. Now I see why so many get frustrated around here.
     
  10. tcadriel

    tcadriel Member

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    Repped. The most sane post I've seen in a while. Except for Mcgrady I couldn't support that guy. Lin on the other hand, he's alright in my book.
     
  11. jms99

    jms99 Member

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    I disagree strongly. Durant with Lin as second option in my opinion would not be considered a lottery team.
     
  12. FTW Rockets FTW

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    Well you're nit picking in this case. Durant and LeBron play at another level to everyone else on the NBA.
     
  13. jms99

    jms99 Member

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    No, I'm not nitpicking. You explicitly said that any team with Lin as 1st or 2nd option is a lottery team. I disagree completely.
     
  14. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    Dragic is better than Lin. There can be no serious debate about that.

    Question is, why are we even bothering to have this debate?
     
  15. AVoiceInACrowd

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    He spams the same crap everywhere. One of these posters who thinks if he repeats the same thing often enough, then it becomes truth.
     
  16. ThisVoice

    ThisVoice Member

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    You guys are seriously comparing sun's 1st option to what... our 5th option???
     
  17. Clarinetmonster

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    Just don't pretend to know things - black and white (both sides) tha's what is really upsetting to people - "this is the way it is, accept it" - first of all ther's no way any of us know what Lin is potential of doing being one of the top options on a team, we only have a small sample size in NY - just the same, we have no idea what Dragic's #'s would look like in Houston currently - so we can make guesses, even somewhat educated guesses, but to say essentially 'this is the law because i said so' is not productive and it's really just baiting.
     
  18. Clarinetmonster

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    Lin's team is better than Dragic's. there can be no serious debate about that - question is who gives a crap who the better player is - I care about our team being better. We can talk about John Wall being better than Lin too - do I care? not in the least because Wall is not and will probably never be a Rocket.
     
  19. meh

    meh Member

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    I used basketball reference. Your link doesn't work. If it's based on Lin's numbers without Harden, then perhaps you're right. I simply used Lin's numbers overall.

    Not really. Because the USG% stated was based on Lin's numbers WITHOUT Harden. Lin's usage was not at Dragic levels even when Harden was out of the game.

    You are correct for as long as a player does not go past his optimal level of efficiency. If a player should only shoot open 3s, then having him shoot mid range jumpers will lower his efficiency. It's clear that Harden shoots more "bad shots" with the Rockets out of necessity than he did in OKC with KD/Westbrook. So his efficiency went down.

    If you believe that Harden is making Lin sucking, then technically Lin would reach his optimal level of efficiency and usage when Harden's not on the court. But it should not go higher than that, unless you also want to add that Dwight Howard or Parsons or another Rocket also prevent Jeremy Lin from reaching his greatness.

    I will point out that I am making the assumption that Lin is a smart basketball player who understand his limitations. I am basing my reasoning on this. Of course, Lin may actually be stupid as a basketball player, not realizing that he can be even better with higher usage. But I'm going to assume that he knows more about basketball than me. So if his USG% is less than Dragic even with Harden off the court, I'm going to trust that he's passing up bad shots, not good ones.

    If you are correct, then it means Lin is not doing his best to play his best. That even without Harden, he's trying to play sub-optimally despite the Rockets (by this forum's own standard) having a terrible bench. I would hate this to be true. I would assume a Harvard grad would be able to understand when he should shoot and when to pass up shots.
     
  20. Stats

    Stats Member

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    The grass is greener syndrome is strong in CF. For some reason people here are super excited to prove that Lin sucks simply as a "gotcha!"

    Comparing Lin to Dragic is like comparing Parsons to Carmelo. There is literally 0 value in that comparison because of different usage. 1st option vs. 4th/5th option? Dragic doesn't have Howard post ups? Bledsoe missing a ton of games?

    Seems like a classic case of making stats fit an existing opinion.

    Ex: Lin's numbers off bench sucks, increasing usage will mean he sucks even more. Btw, look at how awesome Dragic's bench numbers look when I adjust it up without taking into account the same efficiency drop I just ranted about.

    This seems like just trolling back in forth to me.
     
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