Morey: Please Keep this Core - They're Building Something Special

I care because for the Rockets to win, you will need the contribution from everybody down to the last person off bench.

 

I hope Morey doesn't think like this. Star power is of course important. But role players are important too. You need to find the right group to contend, not just the stars. And you need time to gel. OKC took a few years to gel. Miami took a whole year to figure out, as talented as their superfriends are.

When you get your stars, it's time to stabilize the roster. You improve by fine tuning it, rather than overhauling it constantly. If you keep turning over your core role players, you can't really build a solid championship team.

Parsons, Jones, Motiejunas, Beveley, and Lin, all still have upside. One or two of them might develop into our third wheel. The other are already solid role players with the exception of perhaps DMo, who seems to have come around lately too.

We need a good wing guy who can defend and hit the open 3. We need a backup center who can defend and rebound. That's it. If we can get a star PF such as Love or Aldridge, by all means. Other than that, I'd like to see this group grow.

 

Again, this organization can't even maximize the potential of the roster it currently has. Even if a third star was added, if nothing else changed then the chances of this team winning a championship still wouldn't be good.

 

Good thread and I agree. Hopefully Morey will keep the core and let them build chèmistry and with them being young , hopefully have some years of good basketball in Houston.

 

Our only core is Harden, Howard & maybe Parsons. Jeremy Lin should not be part of any teams core

 

Hopefully Morey will trade the assets for the keepers as soon as possible so the real core can get together and build some chemistry.

 

There are no keepers there are only short or longer term leases on this team.

 

I concur with keeping the same team basically as is, with some possible bench changes in future.

This team is going so well that if it gets Asik, Smith and Garcia back it could challenge anybody.

Then you have to remember that they are all still growing. Lin, Beverley, Harden, Parsons, Dwight, T Jones will all continue to get better

 

Why not sir?

 

his article below describes a historical perspective of the qualifying criteria for building a championship team and comes from http://www.82games.com/dennis.htm. My comments appear in bold black fonts, with italics and parentheses. I also edited the article to reduce page length.

The Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team (from 2006)
by Dennis Gallagher

In Harbingers of Fate, 82games.com explored whether a team with a player who won an individual award or statistical crown was likely to win an NBA championship in the same season. ……..Can individual player awards and statistical achievements in one season foretell team success in subsequent seasons? To answer this question, I reviewed the rosters of the 49 championship teams from the 1956-57 Celtics through the 2004-05 Spurs and noted the presence of post-season award winners and individual statistical leaders from prior years. The result is a blueprint for an NBA championship team and a list of the true championship superstars who can take a team to an NBA title.

WHICH INDIVIDUAL AWARDS AND STATISTICS PREDICT TEAM SUCCESS?
1. 92% of NBA Champions had a recent All-NBA 1st Team Selection

(Dwight Howard was voted to the NBA 1st Team(offence) in 2011 & james Harden won 6th Man of the Year in 2011—2012 with OKC. The stats were taken from nba.com, basketball-reference.com.)

Of the past 49 NBA Champions, 45 had a player named All-NBA 1st team during the 4 years preceding the championship season. In other words, an NBA championship roster should include a Top 5 caliber player operating at the top of his game. Only 4 NBA champions failed to have a player named All-NBA 1st team during the 4 years preceding the championship season: the 1976-77 Portland Trailblazer, the 1978-79 Seattle Supersonics, the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, and 1969-70 New York Knicks.

2. 81% of NBA Champions had a recent All-Defensive 1st Team Selection

(Dwight Howard won DPOY three years running(2008-2011) and made the 1st Team All Defensive team four years running (2008-2012). Did not make team in 2012-2013 (from nba.com)).

Does defense win NBA championships? All-Defensive teams were first named following the 1969-70 season. Since that time, 29 of 36 NBA champions had at least one player named All-Defensive 1st Team during the 4 seasons prior to the championship season. When All-Defensive 2nd Team selections are considered, the percentage jumps to 89% of NBA champions.
3. 92% of NBA Champions had a Player Ranked in the Top 8 in Efficiency the Preceding Season

(Dwight Howard carried the sixth highest PER is the league 2011-2012 & James Harden was ranked as high as #11 2012-2013. Data supplied by: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/year/2012).

Which statistical leaders are important to a championship team? I found correlations between championship teams and the prior season’s top 10 scorers and top 10 rebounders. Leaders in assists, blocked shots and steals were less relevant to championship success the following season. The statistical leaders who appeared most on championship rosters were leaders in the NBA’s efficiency statistic. According to efficiency statistics published by www.basketballreference.com, of the past 49 NBA Champions, 45 had a player who finished in the Top 8 in efficiency the preceding season.

BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM
STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar
Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player

(Check: 2013-14 Rockets have two of them. Dwights was named all NBA first team and All NBA 1st Team Defense in 2010-2011. In addition, James Harden is currently ranked as the #4 player in the entire NBA (acccording to espn.com and Truehoops network rankings via http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9861913/2013-nba-player-rankings-4)).

Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers (’97 Supersonics and 2004 Pistons).

Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender.

(Check. 2013-14 Rockets have Dwight Hjoward, who won DPOY three times in the last five years.)

Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players.

Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year.

(The 2013-14 Rockets have all the pieces in place according to the formula above, so there is no need to clear cap space unless Asik refuses to back up Howard and/or Rockets decide to pursue that elusive premiere perimeter defender.)

No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender.

STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two)

(This is where the proponents of the 3rd superstar theory may have a strong argument. These fans want a premiere perimeter defender with high 3pt efficiency. Besides Howard, the 2013-14 Rockets do not have a premiere defender; e.g., not a single player that is currently listed or previously listed on the All NBA Defensive Team. But do you really need a 3rd superstar for the sole purpose of defending the perimeter. James Harden, TJones, Chandler Parsons, and Patrick Beverley must get better at this, and they will, if coached up properly, and, fans allow themselves more patience during this learning curve. Data from Basketball reference.com show James Harden to be a decent defender. He can do the job. He just looks godawful at times because defense appears to be a secondary concern for him; e.g., he does it selectively, at his pleasure and at his leisure.)

Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection.

STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend. No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender.

(Check: Dwight Howard won DPOY three of the last five years.)

Conclusion: It is easier to win a championship with superstars but as history has shown, you certainly do not need a superstar to win a title. The author identified the 2004 Pistons with Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Coliss Williamson, and Ben Wallace; all very good players but not a superstar among them. He also identifed the 1979 Seattle Supersonics with Gus Williams, Dennis Johnson, Jack Sikma, Lonnie Shelton, and John Johnson. How many times have these five players been tagged with a superstar label?) But the 2013-2014 actually have superstars, which can only improve our chances of winning a championship. If you accept his data, we can better understand how to build a champ[ionship team. Accepting his championship formula, the 2013-14 Rockets already have most of the qualifying player personnel on the roster, with only one missing piece: one additional premiere defender. Most will disagree with me but I think the role players are rapidly learning and adapting: Lin is now happy with his role coming off the bench; Tjones is playing with confidence and athleticism; Beverley is playing terrific defense, doing the things he’s been asked to do, and doing them well; and DMo is finally awakened. Once Asik comes round, and Garcia finds his shot, the bench will be loaded for bear. The team is getting better. Mchale is getting better (more willing to make in game adjustments). I agree with the OP: no more player personnel changes. Doing so will complicate roles that are just now getting sorted to player satisfiaction. It took half a season for Parsons, Lin, Harden, and Beverely to adjust to Dwight and get him the ball in the right spot. It also took half a season for this new team to understand and execute the PnR in their half-court sets. Let’s stop lusting for awhile, give this team a year or so to gel, and then re-evaluate. If 2015 is the target year, as most here have said, then at the very least, why not keep the current roster together until then?

 

Edited First sentence: The article below....." Sorry.

 

I'm all for keeping Jones. For about a month now, I'm continuously stunned with some of the negative comments in the GARM about him.

I don't get it. Are people such DMo fans that they want to make up negative stuff about Jones.

Not to say DaDakota spews negative stuff about Jones, but he makes a big deal about DMo being left-handed. I'm pretty sure Jones is left-handed too.

 

I think we are not experienced enough. The talent look like it's there in the top 6 or 7 rotational players

 

The white elephant in the room.

 

I think he thinks Lin is inconsistent. Is that it??

 

No he probably thinks Lin is a no talent scrub that doesn't belong in the NBA.

 

No matter how good Lin plays, some fans are always baised, that's just human nature.

e.g : Lebron can put up 50/50/50 and I still don't like him.

 

Jones may be the Rockets best trade asset right now.

This team would get beat down by the Yao-Artest team while good weren't special.

Everyone outside of Harden, Dwight, and Parsons is expendable. The Rockets need to improve their roster and shooting.

 

Probably because any team with Lin as the core (1st or 2nd option on offense) is a lottery team.