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The problem I have with the 3's and lay-ups approach from a statistical standpoint...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Feb 3, 2014.

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  1. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Morey (and others) say that 3's and close-range 2's are the best statistical shots in basketball.

    I agree.

    But those numbers come from all teams and all players. If a team is constructed to take advantage of these high-percentage shots, then the percentages will go down due to the volume.

    The more you do something, the easier it is to contain and the percentages will go down.

    For example... a wide-open 3-pointer might be a 40% shot. If a team only shoots 3-pointers when they are open, then they will shoot it 40%. A great percentage.

    So if Morey says "hmm... 3-pointers have a high percentage... that means teams should shoot MORE of them!"

    But if that same team that shoots 40% attempts more 3's because they are hitting 40% of them, their percentage will decrease due to taking non-open 3's, and also teams will key in on their shooters more. Now they might shoot only 30%.

    So while yes, 3's and layups are the most statistically efficient shots in basketball, a team cannot simply only shoot those shots and expect the percentages to stay the same. They will come down.

    And so the question is, is this more efficient than running an offense where players shoot from more spots on the floor?
     
    #1 bmd, Feb 3, 2014
  2. ross84

    ross84 Member

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    I agree. Also other teams scout us and guard the three point line harder.
     
    #2 ross84, Feb 3, 2014
  3. bmd

    bmd Member

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    And Morey's approach works over the course of the season, as evidenced by the Rockets' high TS% as a team.

    But I think they run into trouble when talking about individual match-ups.

    The Rockets cannot force shots inside against teams with dominant rim protectors.

    Their gameplan should change some and become more balanced against teams like that.
     
    #3 bmd, Feb 3, 2014
  4. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos BOL BOL
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    Nice post, and its just not going to be effective in the playoffs. You NEED a midrange game when teams key in and tighten their defense.
     
    #4 LosPollosHermanos, Feb 3, 2014
  5. TheJet

    TheJet Member

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    Agreed. Even if it's just the token mid range jumper every now and again it forces the defense to account for it. Like running the ball in football to set up the pass and vice versa. It seems like when we even hit a few 12-15 footers it opens things up.
     
    #5 TheJet, Feb 3, 2014
  6. Richard Djunk

    Richard Djunk Member

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    We need more floaters from our guards.
     
    #6 Richard Djunk, Feb 3, 2014
  7. jocar

    jocar Member

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    Rox are:
    last in attempts from 10-19 feet
    5th in attempts from 5-9 feet
    3rd in attempts less than 5 feet

    Casspi 48%
    Parsons 36%
    Harden 32%
    Lin 32%
    Garcia 29%

    from MIDRANGE in 2013. Casspi and maybe Parsons are the only dudes who should be taking a good number of those shots. What some might call a "gimmick" offense, someone else would call "playing to their strengths". If you want to see more midrange, we may need a different cast.
     
    #7 jocar, Feb 3, 2014
  8. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

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    Personally I want Harden to keep taking Mid Range shots. IMO he is improving at them and it can become a legit part of his game.
     
    #8 Francis3422, Feb 3, 2014
  9. htwnbandit

    htwnbandit Member

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    Actually a good number of payers are good at the midrange. Harden, Lin, Parsons, Casspi and Garcia can all hit that 15 foot jumper. When the 3 isn't falling they need to move in closer to avoid those 20-missed-3 games.
     
    #9 htwnbandit, Feb 3, 2014
  10. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    I would think Morey has taken this into account somehow. It's just like the defense adapting to any offense, player, or move.
     
    #10 RV6, Feb 3, 2014
  11. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    This doesn't really make sense, unlike the mid-range the paint and 3 point area are OPPOSITE sides of the court, that's why Houston does it. If the team is full of paint guys and mid-range guys, opponents can hedge and go in and out of the paint or mid-range because those are next to each other. In this case you can't have dudes going zone to cover the paint and then defending the shooters 1-on-1. Sorry to say, that's just not possible which is why in an ideal world, you want your perimeter players to be running around and shooting 3's or driving to the paint instead of shooting mid-range shots.

    Also, we have seen Houston allow guys like Patterson and Morris take a gazillion mid-range shots a game. This is because those guys are money on the mid-range and unfortunately since those guys got traded we don't have anybody else who can shoot mid-ranges better than 3's or in the paint. The mid-range is essentially the worst shot in b-ball, if you are gonna take it then you better be really good at it, because you can go 3-5 at the 3 but you have to go 5-6 at mid-range just to better that output. For guys like Bev and Parsons, their mid-range aren't all that good compared to their 3's and paint point, so that's why they take majority of those shots.
     
    #11 roslolian, Feb 3, 2014
  12. Morlock O

    Morlock O Member

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    Darn :( was expecting some stats and graphs.... deeply disappointed :(
     
    #12 Morlock O, Feb 3, 2014
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