When you're dealing with a team with MLB talent issues such as the Astros, it will take more than Fowler/Feldman/bullpen filler to make this a better MLB team. You said it yourself when you said this team will be closer to "90 losses" than "100". If its a question between being a 90 loss team or a 100 loss team, does it really even matter?
Haha I was thinking about that when I wrote it. I am just not buying they can be as bad. I will contend that more so that they got tremendously better. Case and point: Humber started (and lost) his first 7 games. I just cannot see someone of that little talent making a push to stay on the roster this year. In 6 of Harrell's first 19 starts, he gave up 5 or more runs. I know that Cosart will probably not do as well as he did last year since he was historically good considering his BB/K average, but adding Feldman helps a fair amount and Peacock looks to be getting it together. Ambriz, Humber (as a reliever), and Cisnero post his hot start were major players in the bullpen after trading Veras (the only bright spot of the bullpen, really). Lo and Chapman had decent starts to their careers, and we had to ask a Rule 5'er to close games with Fields. Now you add Crain, Albers, and Qualls to the mix to take over? Should be a fair exchange. RF was just embarrassing. Posting a .661 OPS from a supposed power spot is embarrassing enough, but the 9 homers and 50 RBI is just terrible for an entire position. Ankiel helps and either Spring or Fowler should easily be able to produce this. Sadly, RF shined compared to CF where the Astros in 162 games had an OPS of .584 while batting .218. Bad luck? Nope... just terrible. Their BABIP was .301 as a unit which is fairly decent. Then there is the DH spot. Carter (and this is more me being a fan than anything else) will not repeat his 2013 home field numbers... just no way. Either way, you ditch Pena and Wallace should hopefully get 0 PAs as a DH being that he can't hit. All things considered, the only position that should go down in production is LF since Carter should be banned from playing there due to his poor performance defensively. The Pythagorean record only predicted 105 losses for last year's team, but blowout losses with do that to you. I don't put much stock in this, but it may be worth noting. On top of all of that, I am an Astro optimist
Pride at this point. I would imagine it kills the mentality of a team to be terrible, and it is a sign that things would be going in the right direction. Would I take 20 wins of improvement? Yes. All day. Every day.
This team could raise the payroll to $70 million and get 20 games of improvement. That's not what's really important. (and the talent right now is not that appreciably that much better than any of the last 3 years... remember, better things were expected from Harrell based on his 2012, and Norris never really busted out as a true ace). The bottom line is how the prized prospects pan out (regardless of wins/losses). If they can come up here, get acclimated, and start showing signs of promise (and eventual improvement), the wins will come. If they fail, it doesn't really matter what guys like Feldman, Fowler, or the bullpen filler do... as they won't be building blocks of the next great Astros team anyways. I'd say the earliest you can start looking at wins/losses for this team is around mid-season of next year (when Springer has played a full calendar season, and hopefully you see the potential career arc of Appel, Rodon, and McCullers more clearly). Addtionally, you know by then if Castro is a perennial all-star, or had serious signs of regression... and you know a little bit more about Altuve.
IT HAS BECOME CLEAR TO ME THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE TOTALLY AGAINST THE ASTROS. SO BE IT, JUST DON'T ACT LIKE YOU WERE ALWAYS HAPPY WITH THE ASTROS WHEN THEY GET GOOD AGAIN. JUST PLEASE DON'T ACT LIKE YOU LOVED LUHNOW OR CRANE OR PORTER OR ANYBODY ON THE ASTROS. YOU DISLIKED EVERYTHING THEY DID. /end rant
Dude you have become a very negative poster. While you are half right about Springer,Singleton, Appel etc. being the most important factor in this teams future success, to say any success this team has this year is insignificant because none of the players will matter is flat out untrue. Castro posted an .830 OPS over the last 61 games of the 2012 season, so last years numbers weren't completely out of left field. Even with regression he projects as a top level catcher. Matt Dominguez already posted a productive WAR over 2 last year, at 24 with still less than 800 PA you are ruling out that he may be able to improve offensively (maybe get that OPS up around .750) with his defense that would make him a solid 3rd baseman. Obie,Peacock,Cosart, none of these guys can prove themselves to be a solid starter. Same with Altuve, Fowler, Villar, Carter, Grossman. You seem to be writing off an entire team. An improvement this season could certainly help set the foundation for solid MLB talent base for all of the stars (hopefully) we have coming up. Springer and co. won't win crap if all of these guys currently here flame out and we have no big league players surrounding them.
For a second I had forgot that the thread title was "Anyone else excited for the Astros". Thank you, oh great clubber of seals
Yes, I'm less of a homer now. 3 consecutive seasons such as this will do that to you. I'll probably continue to take a more unbiased/realistic view of this team while I see the prospects continue to grow as they reach the higher levels. On the flip side, 3 consecutive seasons like this will also cause people to look for a glimmer of hope in just about anything (such as the signings of Feldman, bullpen filler, along with acquiring Fowler). Sorry, I'm not going to get overly excited over those guys. I like Grossman. I think Altuve isn't as bad as some people think (but I don't think he's a starter on most teams). Villar certainly is the most dynamic SS prospect since Adam Everett, however I'm not a Chris Carter fan. Not writing off the entire team... just not going to disagree with projections that this is still a 100 loss team. A lot will have to go right (beyond what you've already mentioned) to see a 20-30 game improvement. Also, if the high pick prospects do flame out, this rebuild will be a failure... so yes, I'm putting a lot of this team's future development on them (and less on the players who've already begun their service time).
Whoa, who said anything about a 20-30 game improvement. I myself expect 65 wins to be about this teams over under. I look more towards the Nationals trajectory or terrible, less terrible, mediocre, good, with this being our less terrible year. And just becuase our A-list prospects are more important, doesn't mean progress this year doesn't matter. It's a 25 man roster, some of these guys likely will be on the next contending team.
I'm excited to see a home grown product but I don't have mediocre expectations about this team. They will be bad. They will make mistakes just like last year. They will probably lose 100 games again. Doesn't mine I'm not excited to finally see the bidding fruits of the tanking labor.
Same here. Realism is taking more a hold of my scope vs. optimism. I'm still optimistic that the rebuild will work (and will be even more optimistic if the A-level prospects continue to pan out). But, this is not a good team... on paper or in reality.
For the past few years, polls done here predicting team losses have been shy 5-10 or so. 101 losses sounds about right to me. They may flirt with staying out of triple digits. But 105 losses wouldn't surprise me either. Young players with little experience are the hardest to predict. There is almost as much chance a player regresses as progresses. The uncertainty is just that high. The Astroptimist in me cant envision fewer than maybe 98 losses.
Astroptimist may be my new favorite word. And, I know I am one to a fault, but last year's team was just awful. Considering they lost the last 15 games, had no bullpen, and essentially no production at first base for half a year and none in right field, I feel like 10 games of improvement isn't asking much. If I had to call my shot today (and I will wait 'til the end of ST to make mine official), I feel hopeful that we can realistically be 68-94 with potential to be better. I am most likely in the minority there, but hey, it's just what I think.
Eh, its unlikely. They should have better prospects in the minors at nearly every position other than catcher (Castro) and with the exception of some of the bullpen (which will likely eventually be made up of some of the better starters in the minors). Wallace and Dominguez aren't the likely long-term starters at their positions (esp if Correa projects as a 3B as he gets bigger). Wouldn't be surprised if Villar or Altuve become replaceable over the next 2-3 years either. Santana, Springer, Fowler, Deshields, Carter, Grossman, potential FA's... not really clear who will be the 3 everyday OF'ers 2-3 years from now, but you "hope" it would be Santana, Springer, Deshields/Fowler as a sign that the prospect mill continued to bear fruit (and the first round money was ultimately worth it).... or perhaps you traded one of those guys for an established player. Yes, it is a 25 man roster... and yes all prospects don't succeed. Using that information for the guys on the roster, most of whom weren't all that highly thought of (prospect-wise) to begin with, its unlikely that a lot of them will be key components of the next great Astros team (Castro and Cosart being the most likely to stick).
Given we will not be pennant contenders next year, id still like a top 3 pick in the 2015 draft. I think at 98-101 loses, that is doable.
I am excited for the new season, I think this year the Astros should let the future stars start playing. If we are going to still be a 90+ loss team then we need to be that with the kids playing. Springer and Singleton need to be here opening day there is nothing left to prove in the minors.
LOL I predict about 96 losses and I'm would be considered an optimist on this board Gotta love lowered expectations.
