Not sure what you are referring to - with Lin on the floor, not only does Dwight take more shots less than 5 ft (which is really where you want him) and does so at a higher %. per game shots less than 5 ft Lin on court = 5.6 FGA 3.6 FGM (63.6%) Lin off court = 4.0 FGA 2.5 FGM (61.9%)
Where did you find that data? I can never seem to find specific info like that. Jus the generic on the floor off the floor stuff.
I hypothesize that Dwight shoots more FTs with Lin in the line-up, and the TS% decline is due to his poor FT shooting. Ok, maybe more speculation that actual hypothesis.
Thanks -it's very interesting that with Bev on court with starters, Parsons and Dwight's TS% go up and with Lin on court with starters, Harden's and TJones TS% go up. The players that have the most significant variation are Parsons and TJones. Hmm.
I think the confidence/mental problems are a myth. If this were true, do you really think he would've persevered to make it to the NBA after not getting a scholarship and not getting drafted? You know his history, he led his high school team to a state championship, he took it to Georgetown, UConn, Boston College, that's not someone with low confidence in his basketball abilities. My guess is his inconsistent play stems from deferring too much to max players. You see this on every team, non-max players defer to the stars.
I think it's hard to come to any certain conclusion at this stage - Dwight is very up and down from game to game with his post game and his FT's, so could at this point just be normal variation. With Parsons and Lin starting, it does meet the eye test that Parsons fades a little when Lin starts, lending credence to the taking touches away/not enough shots to go around. ANyways, I doubt Lin will ever start for this team again without injuries, so he just needs to channel the last 2 games mojo into his bench role, cuz he's kind of a badass.
I dug into the Dwight's TS% and it looks like he shoots significantly more FTs with Lin in the starting line-up (1.03 fta per fga) versus Beverley (0.65 fta per fga). Unfortunately, his FT% is also worse, 48.6% vs 55.6% As for Parsons - his 3pt FG% just plummets to 25.8% with Lin and is an all-world best shooter of all time 51.3% with Bev.
If a max player's performance is so heavily dependent on a role player's presence as some hypothesize here, why is this player worth the max?
Thanks for looking into that - makes sense-It looks like Dwight gets more at the rim opportunities with Lin in and gets fouled a lot when he gets the ball that deep. Yes, the Parsons 3pt thing is just an aberration as his 3pt % has been very up and down this season and really has nothing to do with Lin/Bev - if Parsons is getting less touches and shots with Lin, that's different.
All players, even LeBron James, struggle with confidence issues. I think Lin's wavering self-belief tends to be over-analyzed due to the fact that he was undrafted, therefore we assume that he doesn't think he belongs in the NBA. But the guy persevered in the D-League for years, so he obviously has enormous self-confidence.
Totally agree. What we really need out of a player like Jeremy is a Greivis Vasquez or Goran Dragic, someone who is comfortable playing in spurts as a 2nd point guard to James. Too bad good point guards can't defend though. If we could get a point guard who could shore up the D and distribute and shoot and play in spurts, I suppose we'd need to call up Ron Harper.
okay had a look at nbawowy, pretty cool site actually, some posters wanted some more team-centric data so here is some dating back: Harden on Lin off Spoiler Lin on Harden off Spoiler With Lin on and Harden off, the team has a slightly better eFG%,TS, and Assist rate With Harden on, the team gets to the line at a higher rate, shoots less shots from midrange but makes them at a higher clip With Lin on and Harden off, the team shoots less from 3pt land, but makes them at a higher clip With Harden on, the team has a superior PPP but a slightly inferior PPS
Just some more information about how Lin performs when he can dominate the ball. Harden has missed 8 games this season, and 4 games last season. Below are the game scores, as well as the numbers Lin posted in these Harden-less games. Lin's points per game were usually around 19 with some games slightly lower, and a couple a great deal higher. His assists were most often in the 7-8 range, but often lower, and a couple of times in 11-12 range. Keep in mind 10 games is a small sample size; and teams were not scouting for Lin being the primary ball handler. Still, the numbers are interesting. 1/29/14 @Dallas W 117-115 | Lin 18 pts, 7 Ast, 7 Reb, 1 Stl 1/28/14 vs San Antonio W 97-90 | Lin 18 pts, 8 Ast, 3 Reb, 1 Bl 12/23/13 vs Dallas L 104-111 | Lin 20 pts, 2 Ast, 2 Reb, 1 Stl 12/21/13 @Detroit W 114-97 Lin DNP 11/27/13 vs Atlanta W 113-84 Lin played 4 minutes 11/25/13 @Memphis W 93-86 | Lin 14 pts, 2 Ast, 4 Reb, 2 Stl 11/23/13 vs Minnesota W 112-101 | Lin 19 pts, 5 Ast, 5 Reb, 1 Stl, 1 Bl 11/13/13 @Philadelphia L 117-123 | Lin 34 pts, 12 Ast, 5 Reb 4/1/13 vs Orlando W 111-103 | Lin 19 pts, 11 Ast, 1 Reb 3/30/13 vs LA Clippers W 98-81 | Lin 15 pts, 3 Ast, 1 Bl 2/13/13 @ LA Clippers L 96-106 | Lin 14 Pts, 7 Ast, 2 Reb, 2 Stl, 1 Bl 12/10/12 @ Spurs L 126-134 | Lin 38 Pts, 7 ast, 3 Reb, 2 Stl, 2 Bl
What is interesting about this is that most of those are good teams too. I've kind of theorized that Jeremy tends to go off on scrub teams. But I guess not. I think this is pretty clear. If I was Jeremy I would be doing everything in my power to get off the Rockets.
