Exactly. I need to know if I can have 3-5 more drinks and two bowls and cruise Netflix until 2AM or just 1 and 1 and then sleep. I also kinda need to know this by around 10:30PM.
Funny how everyone is making fun of Houston for over-reacting but no one is making fun of Atlanta for not reacting at all. Hey Atlanta... Snow plows, road salt, state officials directing traffic...just some suggestions....
Not really... only if you're planning on changing your plans/routine if you don't have to work the next day (i.e. - drinking heavily/staying up late). Again, constant information age. Work/school can close with a simple text notification or e-mail. As long as you get it before your planned departure for your commute, you'll be fine.
Seriously. I would rather they over react than not reacting at all. After seeing the satellite/radar and close range model trends I was about 85% sure this storm would be a bust in regards to the original forecast. This was realized after the weather balloon data was reviewed and uploaded into the computer models. The thing people are not realizing is this is Texas (SE Texas to be exact) and there is not a lot of winter precip here. Models take climatological data on top of atmospheric conditions to put out their forecast graphics. There isn't very much climatological data for winter precipitation here, therefore the models are basing their outputs off of current atmospheric data and the very few soundings they will send up in weather balloons (this really only happens at the last second to get a forecast as accurate as possible). Having said that, there is no real way to determine if the system will spit some ice pellets down or dump 5" of snow. Even though the models were trending drier all day Monday and by Monday evening it was looking like this was a busted forecast, you can never be sure about it. Surprises happen down here with winter weather a lot more than they do up North where they have tons of history and data to base their model runs off of.
Hence, they need a better system.... but mainly a better way to deal with the info they do have (accurate or not), and working out the timing in making such decisions. Frankly, I think they did a great job last Friday (when conditions were actually bad during the morning commute)... they closed off overpasses early/instantly, and there was enough of a gap in the system to make things less hairy for the drive home. Yes, Atlanta is a disaster... and apparently a product of the government flat out ignoring the forecasts (which turned out to be dead-on accurate).
Ah, I figured parents would actually have to stay home with their kids, as the entire city is shut down (further adding to the logistical hassle of having mythical snow days). If I was a babysitter, I would take a snow day as well. The bottom line is that 18 hours advance notice is too much advance notice.
Thought I'd share, this is pretty cool to see how people reacted in Atlanta http://www.buzzfeed.com/kimberlyt/the-silver-lining-of-atlantas-snowpocalypse-2014-w6l
A better system would be nice, but it takes time and A LOT of money to upgrade these models and software. The government would rather spend millions elsewhere like upgrading their employees flights to business class or giving the Pakistani people a program to teach them to grow more mangos. The NWS is treated like NASA. They have to do with what they are provided. Believe it or not, universities play a large roll in it as well. A lot of them have their own models, Texas Tech has the WRF model which is surprisingly really good with short term forecast (12-24 hours). However each model has goods and bad things about them. Some years they can be dead accurate, some they are horrible. That is why people that have their "favorite models" or are "model huggers" and don't look at the actual satellite/radar trends and other raw data are not very good forecasters. I think the NWS does a good job given the resources they are/aren't provided. Meteorology is a science, and a very good one at that. Especially given all of the complexities involved to predict outcomes of events. It isn't as easy as you think. In this instance, dry air moving in really killed off the moisture. When you see dew points in the negative or single digits like we did in Dallas and other parts to the North, the moisture and lift in the atmosphere just cannot cope with that. That is why the storm didn't drop the amounts of precip as initially forecast over the Houston area.
Good insight... would be nice to see some advances in the field in order for cities to be better prepared. Events like Atlanta should be preventable.
So that's coming here? Are we expected to get the snow for a snow day? I need another snow day. I'm already getting used to 4 day work weeks.
Not set in stone yet, but 2 straight 12z model runs from the Euro showing it. Granted it is still 7 days away so things can and will change, but it sure looks like it will be cold as **** and precip might be available. The GFS is no where near as bad but it will either come around to the Euro or the Euro will come around to the GFS. I would say by Sunday we would really know the possible outcome. Would be nice to have next Friday off to light up a few and chill. Lol. Better safe than sorry eh? :grin:
Is there an "advanced stat" that shows the total amount of snow, that's ever fallen in Houston, based on the date?
Damn, I have go to Houston for work tue-thurs. looks like it might be tough getting back to Austin thurs night And yes, these 4 day work weeks have been nice
Eh, that's little to no snow for Houston verbatim, but that'd be a major storm for Texas. Still time for this thing to shift north or south so I'd take models past day 4-5 or so with a HUGE grain of salt.
