2014 Astros Minor League Thread

I would have to argue against that since the timing matters. What is the point of having an All Star on a team that is bound to never make the playoffs? Rather, acquire the pieces that you will need in the future, hope a good majority of them can pan out, and hope that a select few shine. The Astros were not making a trade for 2011 but rather 2014-2018. I will gladly take the return that we had for Berkman, Pence, Bourn, and Oswalt considering 2 of the four will most likely be out of baseball (or should be).

This goes without mentioning money. Would you like to have two players making at least $30 million for a team that wins less than 70 games with them on it and nothing to help them out? Sorry... I am just confused as to why maintaining mediocrity is the answer...

 

I already said the Astros had to get something for them while they could... just echoing the article questioning about whether they could have ended up with more (especially since some of the more higher thought of prospects at the time of the trade -- Singleton, haven't had the sort of career path envisioned). Again, trading those 4 guys was thought of as a tremendous starting point to re-stocking the farm... this was before the plan was put in place to suck royally in order to further rebuild the system. Now, it will likely be the sucking/draft picks due to sucking more than the trades (if it all works out... still an if).

I don't know about "gladly" taking the return. Also, I won't mention "money" as a good reason for getting rid of anybody. There's no cap, they're not speeding "my" money, and if they choose to dump "cheaper" players with club control left due to future money reasons, it gets annoying when they don't get much value back.

 

-Surefire prospects are rarely if ever traded and if they are it’s not for expensive/injured/declining talent.

-Singleton and Cosart have both made multiple top prospect lists; people think very highly of them. A few all-star games isn’t out of the question.
-Funny you mention Bourn. When he was acquired he had never made a top 100 BA list. Yet he went on to make two all-star teams and win GG’s. That’s the nature of prospecting. Domingo Santana has an all-star ceiling and the chance to have never made a top prospect list.

-Well that just massively oversimplifies trades. I prefer total WAR in vs out. Say Pence gave the Phillies 6 total WAR over his 1.5 years there. The Astros get 24 years of club control of Singleton/Cosart/Santana/Zeid. I’d bet a lot of money that the Astros get more value (WAR) from the trade. The exception is always trading prospects for a WS run, which is what the Phillies were doing, but I suspect the Astros are very happy with the Pence trade.

-I bet the Phillies are really wishing they had young talent to inject into their ML club. Their roster is full of aging/expensive talent (ring a bell?)
-The Yankees got squat from the Berkman trade and never broken up about losing prospects. They also now have a really old/expensive team with no young talent.
-I doubt the Astros are too broken up about losing Lowrie when they got three good pieces back.

-I agree. Most of our top prospects are draftees. Yet we got to those three #1’s and other high picks by completely bottoming out (and fast), which included trading off all that established talent. I could easily make the argument if we didn’t trade Berkman/Oswalt/Pence/Bourn we never get Correa/Appel/McCullers/Ruiz/Rodon.

-Perhaps if the Blazer would take Lin and Asik for LMA then the Rockets would be championship contenders…

 

Yes... WAR is a good comparison. Mythical potential future WAR is not. Knocking teams that have been in contention throughout the last decade without bottoming out, and won WS and pennants in part due to trading away their prospects, is laughable.

Everybody needs to calm down and realize that most prospects... even those drafted high, fast-tracked, key parts of trades, etc. will fail. There's a lot of optimism due to the system rebuild... which is basically the only thing Astros fans can cheer for right now. Just saying that its just as likely that this team could need another rebuild (or two) before finally stumbling upon a team that can actually compete.

 

-That's why the FO gets paid the big bucks. To make those decisions current WAR vs potential WAR. Full proof plan? Certainly not.
-I expect the Phillies are going to bottom out in same timeframe that it'll take for the Astros to become good.
-I can't knock the Yankees for doing things the Yankees way, but no team in the league operates like they do.

Well that's a 'no **** sherlock' argument, but that hasn't been what you've been complaining about.

 

And I will just stop here because that is ridiculous. I am sorry, but money is the biggest part of the game. If you don't take contracts, options, and club control into consideration, you're ignoring a major part of the game.

 

First of all, I haven't been complaining about anything other than holding Springer back due to cash reasons... this discussion stems from the BP 2014 Astros article for which I can agree somewhat with Levine's premise (quantity vs. quality trade hauls haven't necessarily paid off). People drooling over those prospects need to take a step back until they make their big league debuts (so far, only Cosart has shown glimpses... despite some awful peripherals).

Secondly, not really sure what a "full-proof" plan is. The only "fool-proof" plan the Astros have implemented is sucking hard, and picking #1 overall... not exactly the work of geniuses, but a necessary practice given the state of the system (despite trades), the financial restrictions of the new owner, and the system that significantly rewards having the #1 pick.

Lastly, if any more teams "bottom out" in Astros fashion, it will likely be by design (as was the Astros plan all along)... but I don't think the Phillies (who just got one of those huge $100 million/year cable deals re-negotiated that can pay for a roster by itself) are going to ever be as cash poor/in debt as Crane/Astros were when all of this started.

 

TV money is now the biggest part of the game... and takes care of team's rosters by itself. With each and every negotiated tv deal that is paying teams more than $100 million/year, less penny-pinching/stashing players for super-2 FA reasons/salary dumps will occur.

Teams don't even have to put all that money into the major league roster off the bat. They too can invest in their minor league scouting, international FA, and hire some BP nerds to key roles in the front office to gain a competitive edge (all without paying down debt due to being unable to afford a MLB franchise to begin with).

Till the Astros have one of those, they will be behind big market, mid market, and even some small market teams in the real "major" part of the game.

 

I apologize for my contentious tone earlier. Arguing over a Levine article makes as much sense as punching myself in the junk.

My issue with his premise is that it doesn't take into account the full scope of the rebuild or the thought behind the trades. Were Lance and Roy unquestionably the best players at the time in their trades? Of course. Is it easy in hindsite to say those trades didn't work out as best as possible? Yes. If Villar was currently an all-star SS and Melancon an all-star closer then Levine would simply have found another topic to armchair GM about.

It's far to early to call Luhnow a genius or not. But he has to get credit as a risk-taker. You say its not hard to think up a 'suck for success' plan but its the first time its ever been done to this degree. How many potential GM's have the nuts to go to a new owner and say 'let me take your 70 win team and turn it into a 50 win team for three years'. If it works he's definitely a genius.

The Phillies are going to bottom out because they're prospect poor. They can't buy prospects. The Yankees have the same problem. Despite signing Tanaka they might trot out an infield every bit as bad as the Astros.

 

Roy Oswalt had one more decent season and was done. Berkman sucked with the Yankees, left via FA and had one more great season. Pence has consistently been a good, but not great player, and is now one of the more overpaid players in the game. The Phillies preceded to trade him at the next deadline for decidedly less than what we got for him.

While you are right none of the players have "hit" yet, you seem to be calling that massive crop of prospects failures, when most of them haven't played a full season, or even got to Houston at all. Even at a low hit rate I predict we will get much more value than the Phillies and Yankees got.

Simple fact if you could pull those 3 trades right now, or even last year, any team in the league would.

 

This is right on the money. Some people hear the names Berkman and Oswalt and thing "dang they should have gotten absolute top quality prospects for guys like that" . . .truth is both were well beyond their best years, and neither were showing enough that a team trading for them would feel comfortable that they would be major pieces. Pence was never a true star level player, he was a good solid guy, but not the kind of player that teams give up their TOP prospects for.

When we traded away our TOP prospects a decade or so before, we got Randy Johnson back, a true ace in his prime. We never traded away that type of player. I don't think the Bourn trade turned out well at all, I have no problems with the others, in fact we could easily get two players out of the Pence trade that end up being better than Pence in his prime

 

The Phillies and Yankees didn't need to "hit" on trades to rebuild their rosters like the Astros do. Until they get a favorable tv deal, they're at a competitive disadvantage and need every move to count.

I'm not calling them failures... just that it will be unlikely that any single player from one of these trades goes on to be a key component of the next successful Astros team. That's just by looking at their performances which get more projectable with each passing year. Villar and Cosart are already here. Singleton will be next, followed by Santana. I wouldn't be surprised if none of them become key components (and on the flip side, surprised if they all pan out). Singleton really needs to come into camp determined.

Yes, the Astros had to trade Lance and Roy. That isn't being debated. It's all about what the current players are able to realistically do long term for this team, at the MLB level.

 

Well we certainly agree here. We obviously disagree as to what we think they can do.

I guess we'll just have to pick this up in a few years.

 

The Astros farm system is better, but it should be after getting the #1 pick numerous years and the highest signing pool. Have they really done that well considering the circumstances? Time will tell. Was it worth passing on Buxton for Correa and McCullers? Should the Astros have taken Bryant or Gray #1?

Too early to tell. I will just say that anyone that is convinced the Astros will be good based on their farm system is kidding themselves. Most prospects fail and time will tell.

 

I strongly suspect that a top ranked farm system produces more major leaguers than a bottom 5 farm system, right? The Astros under Luhnow now have a top ranked farm and the *odds* are that it will produce more than the average number of major leaguers.

What some of you are missing about the Astros farm system is its depth. The Astros have done a really good job of drafting "non-prospects" after the top rounds, say rounds after the fifth. These lower round draftees may not produce any all stars but they will produce everyday players. This will let the Astros in the future spend their FA monies on stars and fill the rest of their needs from the farm.

 

[rquoter]To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)

Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and also have depth down to and past the end of their top 10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released on Thursday and Friday.)

Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple of very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars, and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salaried players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.

One last point: Of my top 10 farm systems, only three are "large market" teams (although the proper term would be "high revenue"). Scouting and player development are still the best way to build a competitive major league team, and while some extra money in scouting helps, success in either area is far more a function of the people you employ than the money you throw at the players. Good organizations hire and retain good people, enact strong processes and then execute them -- even when fans or writers don't see the big picture.



1. Houston Astros

On the one hand, when you pick first overall every year, you should probably end up with a pretty good farm system, and the Astros' top five prospects are all first-round picks. On the other hand, the Astros have done everything they needed to do to restock what was a few years ago the worst system in the majors, like exceeding MLB's recommended signing bonuses for Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz in 2012, or landing prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Domingo Santana and Asher Wojciechowski in trades.

They've become more aggressive in Latin America, as well, after years of dormancy following the departure of legendary Venezuelan scout Andres Reiner in 2005, and have been willing to endure some brutal seasons at the major league level in pursuit of the goal of strengthening the weak system. They have depth and they have a couple of high-ceiling guys at the top of the system, getting close to the point where the light at the end of the tunnel no longer looks like an oncoming train. It's been ugly, Astros fans, but hang in there.



2. Minnesota Twins

The Twins have more high-end talent -- I'm referring to players who have both high ceilings and also have a reasonable probability of getting close to those ceilings -- than any other organization right now. They have a pair of potential future MVP candidates in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, with more power arms than this system has had in ages. They don't quite have Houston's depth, but the gap between the systems is quite small.



3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Almost everything went right for the Pirates in 2013 -- and I'm only talking about their farm system. They bounced back from failing to sign their first-round pick in '12, Mark Appel, by landing the best prep hitter in last year's class in Austin Meadows, while several prospects already in the system took huge steps forward into my overall top 20.



4. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.

Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.



5. Boston Red Sox

They rival Houston for the best top 10 of any team, with as many prospects on the top 100 as the Astros have, and while they don't have Houston's depth, Boston's system is pretty deep, with at least a half-dozen pitching prospects who reasonably project (that is, not just pie-in-the-sky forecasting) as No. 4 starters or better.

And that ignores the part about their best prospects being position players who hit and most of whom play very good defense. When a defensive whiz like Christian Vazquez, a catcher who can hit a little, can't crack your top 10, you're doing a lot of things right.



6. New York Mets

The turnaround in this system is remarkable, especially when you consider they have not had a top-10 pick since they took Matt Harvey in 2010, and it puts the Mets in excellent shape relative to the other four teams in their division.

The decisions to trade R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd look even better in hindsight. The Mets also have one of the minors' best collections of pitchers who throw strikes but aren't strictly finesse guys.



7. Kansas City Royals

The first wave of top Royals prospects hit Kansas City over the past two years, but most of them haven't come close to expectations yet -- although I think Eric Hosmer has finally turned that corner. The next group is less hyped, but might be just as good, with power arms leading the way and a couple of strong bats.

This wave of talent is shallower than the last one, but the Royals' biggest window of contention is going to start very soon.



8. Colorado Rockies

A sneaky-good system, although with Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray throwing 98 mph tablets by hitters I doubt the Rockies can keep their prospect depth on the QT. They've generally been a productive club in Latin America despite avoiding the biggest bonus babies, and I'm in the camp that assumes that 2012 first-rounder David Dahl will return this April without missing a beat.



9. San Diego Padres

The Padres were my top system two years ago and graduated a lot of that depth to the majors. However, they filled the void nicely with two more solid drafts, helping make up for lost seasons from Casey Kelly and Rymer Liriano (both of whom missed 2013 due to Tommy John surgery).

Their recent trade for major league reliever Alex Torres also included Jesse Hahn, another power arm to add to the system, but he missed their top 10 behind several pitchers with a better chance to remain starters.



10. Baltimore Orioles

Very top-heavy, but a strong front five, all on the top 100, due in no small part to a string of four straight solid first-round picks since the Matt Hobgood fiasco. (Hobgood, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 draft, has a 5.05 ERA in his career and hasn't made it past Class A.)

Their depth is improving, though it's still behind where it'll need to be to keep the club competitive in the AL East, and more investment in intriguing international amateurs like Olelky Peralta will help bolster the system.



11. Los Angeles Dodgers

Also a very top-heavy system, like Baltimore's, with two elite guys at the top and three solid guys after, followed by a lot of reliever/fifth starter depth. They did have some intriguing arms in short-season ball who could push this system's overall value up a lot by next year, especially since none of their top eight prospects are likely to lose eligibility in 2014.



12. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have produced so much homegrown talent over the past five years that it's hard to believe they're still above the median, but with potential superstar Oscar Taveras on top, a half-dozen more prospects who project as regulars or better, and lots of pitching and bench depth, they're poised to keep stocking the major league team for several more years. One system weakness, though, as you might have heard: shortstop.



13. Texas Rangers

Most of the talent here is very young and likely three years away, but there is as much All-Star potential in this system as there is in just about any of the systems after the top five -- just a lot less probability, as guys like Joey Gallo or Lewis Brinson could be elite big leaguers just as easily as they could wash out in Double-A.



14. Philadelphia Phillies

Similar to Texas but with fewer prospects who are potential grade 65 or better players in the majors. I thought the Phillies had one of the best drafts, perhaps the best of anyone, in 2014, landing a few high-ceiling high school kids -- such as shortstop J.P. Crawford -- while mixing in some solid college bats like catcher Andrew Knapp.



15. Arizona Diamondbacks

A lot of high-ceiling pitching here, which is probably a good strategy for a team that plays in a hitter's park 1,100 feet above sea level, but light on near-term position players other than shortstop Chris Owings.

One bright spot on the hitting side: Brandon Drury, who looked like a throw-in to the Justin Upton trade, but broke out with a big year for low Class A South Bend and may help salvage a mostly disastrous trade for the D-backs.



16. Cincinnati Reds

Plenty of outfielders and power arms here, light up the middle and possibly light on starting pitching candidates after Robert Stephenson. At worst, they'll put a pretty good bullpen together on the cheap from all of those A-ball starters, a group that includes 2012 supplemental first-round pick Nick Travieso.



17. Cleveland Indians

Danny Salazar reaching the majors was great for the system, but deletes him from the Indians' top 10, and they had several prospects who had disappointing years, none more than former No. 3 overall pick Trevor Bauer, whose stuff wavered and who couldn't throw strikes. Aggressive promotions for Dorssys Paulino and Jose Ramirez hurt their performances, although both are still promising middle infield prospects.



18. Washington Nationals

The Nats' system has a little more depth than it's had in several years, but most of their elite prospects have already graduated, with only Lucas Giolito in the overall top 50. Their list's caliber drops off quickly after six or seven names.



19. Miami Marlins

They keep graduating guys like Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich faster than most other organizations would, which doesn't help their ranking but also is one positive way that the front office has bucked the industry. They don't stash good players in the minors to manipulate service time -- when a kid shows he might be ready, he's up to sink or swim. This will be a big year for some starter prospects in the system who may be on the cusp of a move to the pen.



20. New York Yankees

It seemed like everyone who mattered in this system got hurt in 2013, and of those who didn't most had disappointing years. The good news is every one of the injured prospects should be healthy to start 2014 (except Slade Heathcott, for whom "healthy" is an abstract concept), but it also means the Mason Williamses and Tyler Austins of the system will run out of excuses if they don't hit.

A strong day one draft class in 2014 -- when they had three of the top 33 picks -- helped boost the system.



21. Seattle Mariners

The M's graduated three top prospects to the majors in 2013 in Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, so there's less on the farm now after the two starting pitchers (Taijuan Walker and James Paxton) who are on the cusp of helping the big league team. Their Class A clubs will be the teams to watch if you're looking for prospects.



22. Atlanta Braves

A very top-heavy system, led by first-rounder Lucas Sims and Panamanian catcher Christian Bethancourt, but years of subpar drafts as well as trades to bolster the major league team have thinned the system out. Atlanta is the only team with two undrafted (yet draft-eligible) free agents in its top 10 prospects.



23. Tampa Bay Rays

Years of good trades helped keep the Rays near the top of the list since I started compiling these rankings, but they've been crushed by the graduations of Wil Myers and Chris Archer last year plus several unproductive drafts -- when Kevin Kiermaier and Tim Beckham reached the majors in September, they were the first players drafted and developed by the Rays to suit up for the team since David Price and Matt Moore from the 2007 draft.

The Rays have been hurt by on-field success that gives them lower picks and limits their draft and international bonus pools, but they haven't fared well even within those limits.



24. Toronto Blue Jays

It's tough to trade away three top 100 prospects, as the Jays did last winter, and maintain a strong system, but the Jays compounded that problem by failing to sign their first overall pick (Phil Bickford) for the second time in three years.

The Jays can afford to trade prospects if they're hitting on high draft picks, but they haven't done so often enough other than the selections they ended up dealing.



25. San Francisco Giants

The Giants have a lot of high-floor arms in their system and a couple of intriguing up-the-middle bats, but not quite enough of either to overcome a lack of high-ceiling (potential star) prospects after hard-throwing Kyle Crick. They are in position to use that pitching depth to make a midseason acquisition if they need to this year, which wasn't true of their system going into 2013.



26. Oakland Athletics

The A's have one of the youngest top 10s of any team in the majors, but aside from budding superstar Addison Russell, most of their talent is far away and still very uncertain.



27. Chicago White Sox

The ranking doesn't reflect it yet, but this system is headed in the right direction thanks to better drafts, including a few surprises from later-round picks. I did not include Cuban defector Jose Abreu in any rankings, as he's 27 years old, but the Sox would be higher if he counted in their favor.



28. Detroit Tigers

This system boils down to third baseman Nick Castellanos and a lot of power arms who seem like probable relievers, as well as some slick defensive middle infielders, any of whom could establish himself as a valuable asset with a year of offensive production. I'd like the system more had the Doug Fister trade yielded a top-50 prospect, as you'd expect given Fister's performance the past two years.



29. Los Angeles Angels

An awful system after years of lost first-round picks and trades to bulk up the major league team, it improved marginally in 2013 with some new arms, but regression from most of the top position player prospects in the system was a huge disappointment.



30. Milwaukee Brewers

There may not be a player in this system who projects as an above-average player in the majors; the best bets are all teenagers who played in low Class A or below in 2013, and none is close to a lock to get there.

The system lacks ceiling and it lacks depth beyond reliever candidates and likely fourth outfielders, with nothing in the middle of the diamond and no starting pitching of note.[/rquoter]

 

Top 100 will be tomorrow, and our top 10 will be on Thursday. I figure those to have more info.

 

I don't disagree with any of this.... but there is a saying, "Don't count your chickens before they hatch".....

As far as whether a top ranked system produces more MLB talent than a low ranked one... I think we all know the general trend is yes, but I have also seen teams with great systems get few MLB players out of it, as it is still a crap shoot.